In 1969, the US submarine Scorpion, homeward bound from the Mediterranean in the South Atlantic, disappeared without a trace.
The search was finally resolved when a Navy researcher, John Piña Craven, using Bayesian search methods and, in effect, a free market approach to sorting through the various hypotheses, found the wreck. It took a while – but in the end, the path to the sub’s wreck was perfectly logical.
The media – inflamed by the Malaysian government’s political skeeviness – is spinning conspiracy theories as fast as it can get them on the air these days.
If I had to bet? I’d say this guy has it right.
Just a hunch – but if I had to bet, I’d go long on the theory.