So I’m Gonna Guess…

…that the rump Ron Paul crowd in the GOP is done stumping for Harold Shudlick right about…now?

So let’s see – for the second major state race in a row, the “Independence” Party fields a candidate who is calibrated to suck away a volatile constituency in the GOP.

And I’m going to guess that if anyone dug long enough (perish the thought) they’d find a few Alida Messinger bucks socked away in the kitty.

Not to sound cynical or anything.

11 thoughts on “So I’m Gonna Guess…

  1. Gonna disagree with you there, NW – at least halfway.

    The Ronulans? Sure, lots of them were never Republicans at all.

    But I’m gonna suggest the Tea Party is mostly small “l” libertarians. And when the party seems to be working as hard as it is to shut them up, playing a potemkin “libertarian” in a spoiler party makes good, if cynical, sense for the Dems.

  2. I was wondering if the Paul folks signed a purchase agreement for the IP, or is this simply a short-term lease arrangement? If Nicollet goes out and flays Franken on the trail, then she’s serious. I’ll withhold judgment for now, but we’ll find out soon enough. She also does bear a passing resemblance to Zooey Deschanel, which won’t hurt her cause.

    I’d add that the reason she could be a factor/spoiler is because the Republican candidates for Senate haven’t exactly distinguished themselves. It would have been better if at least 1-2 of the folks running for governor had considered taking on Franken instead, but there’s not much to be done about that now.

    I’d also add that if Nicollet is a Justin Amash fan, as one of her supporters has suggested, she might want to consider that Amash is working within the Republican Party structure. The other big Amash fan in this cycle, CD-2 challenger David Gerson, is working within that structure.

  3. Despite Mitch’s paranoia of a DFL plan to run Ron Paul people as independents, I doubt that’s the case. I know of several former Republican who are also Ron Paul supporters who have become fed up with the MNGOP and the terrible candidates it fields. As to working in the party structure, some have and they should, but it’s not the best strategy for everyone.

    Hannah represents the views of most people under 50 who consider themselves free market advocates. If the GOP wanted to earn new votes, it needs to do a better job appealing to real people. The flag waving, Reagan worshipping, God fearing aspect of this party is no longer a mainstream perspective in American life and especially in Minnesota.

  4. Mr. D: The Independence Party has welcomed a lot of Ron Paul folks and in many cases the IP is a better match for them than the GOP. They unlike so many in the GOP have welcomed many of them with open arms.

  5. . I know of several former Republican who are also Ron Paul supporters who have become fed up with the MNGOP and the terrible candidates it fields

    OK – but that doesn’t negate my premise in any way.

    The flag waving, Reagan worshipping, God fearing aspect of this party is no longer a mainstream perspective in American life and especially in Minnesota.

    Pauline Kael syndrome!

    An awful lot of people in this country – west of the Hudson, east of the Sierra Madre, outside of Uptown – still “fit” that series of cliches (as much as real people ever fit stereotypes, anyway). Just saying.

  6. The Independence Party has welcomed a lot of Ron Paul folks and in many cases the IP is a better match for them than the GOP.

    Makes perfect sense given that the IP too is rarely (if ever) serious about winning elections.

  7. Hannah represents the views of most people under 50 who consider themselves free market advocates.

    So you say. Do you have metrics, or merely assertions?

    If the GOP wanted to earn new votes, it needs to do a better job appealing to real people.

    I was at a caucus on Tuesday. While I suppose a few of the other attendees might have looked like fugitives from Madame Tussaud’s to someone who is comfortably above the fray, they were real people. They could fog a mirror and everything. And of course the best way to earn new votes is to question the verisimilitude of the voters. That’s straight outta Dale Carnegie.

    The flag waving, Reagan worshipping, God fearing aspect of this party is no longer a mainstream perspective in American life and especially in Minnesota.

    Maybe. But you’ll still need a few of the people who see the world in those terms to support your candidate. The thing about these non-mainstream people is that a lot of ’em vote. And while they may not be au courant enough to hang with the cool kids at Pizza Luce, if Hannah Nicollet seriously wants to go to Washington, she’s gonna need to make a few friends among their number. Somehow reading them out of the mainstream isn’t likely to be a winning strategy.

    The Independence Party has welcomed a lot of Ron Paul folks and in many cases the IP is a better match for them than the GOP.

    The party of Dean Barkley, Tim Penny and Tom Horner is a better match for Ron Paul folks? I guess I’m a little surprised to find that such a principled group would find such intellectually malleable company to be so amenable. It’s easy to miss such subtleties when you’re out of the mainstream, though.

  8. The party of Dean Barkley, Tim Penny and Tom Horner is a better match for Ron Paul folks?

    Bingo.. That’s the point, right there.

    The IP was formed by a bunch of center-left “good government” types – the very antithesis of Libertarians, people who have faith in government.

    Their dalliance with Ventura on the surface violated that – but no; it was Penny and Barkley that actuallly did the work in that administration. And as the IP had exactly one member in the Legislature, who did “Ventura” cuddle up to to actually push policy? Roger Moe.

    So you have a party that was founded around 20 years ago to push a center-left, “good government” platform…

    …that’s cuddling up with a bunch of “anarcho-libertarians?”

    I’m not saying Forget for a moment that I am saying that the IP has been bought by liberals with deep pockets to divert votes from the GOP. Forget that it’s my premise.

    If that weren’t what is going on ,how would this situation be any different?

  9. I suspect that the people whose votes the parties want, who, like me, would get lost listening to the discussion taking place in the post. Big L little l, “good government” stuff will only be relevant to those who have already decided.

    Like music judges on the old Dick Clark Show, they’ll make their decision in seconds based on a sound bite, not an analysis on tonic history, chord progression, or obscure tunings. “Good beat, easy to dance to” will be beaten by “Better beat, easier to dance to.”

    I suggest that the successful candidate will prevail if s/he displays a simple, understandable, likable, trustworthy image. Waxman aside, looks help, too. But likability will trump a sound, serious, historically based, in-depth platform promoted by a solemn, geeky, political wonk (qualified or not).

    If our candidate can use the first traits to compliment the second, we’ll be in good shape.

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