I’ve bagged on Nate Silver in the past. His methodology ends up calling races accurately – but, I suspect, it’s mostly through the benefit of a point spread that would forgive a lot of errors. My favorite example – his 2010 prediction that Governor Dayton would win by six points (with an eight point margin of error).
And so I’m not going to put in a big champagne order just yet.
But he’s smelling Democrat blood in the water next year. In the Senate:
A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority.
After last year, I’m keeping all pollling at arm’s length, of course.
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