The Rollout
By Mitch Berg
Kennedy V. The Machine – one of the best blogs of the last couple of years – has finally rebranded itself.
Very appropriately, I might add.
Stop by and wish ’em well!
UPDATE: Ooops – sorry, guys. I got your Technorati ping, and figured that meant you’d gone live.
January 21st, 2007 at 10:20 am
And even more curious, that no mention at all of the fact that the fall ratings released last week show KTNF at 1.7, and WWTC at a 1.0.
“Curious?” Well, sate your curiosity; I didn’t see the numbers until yesterday.
It was a disappointing book for WWTC – there’s no sugarcoating it, especially given how successful we were over the summer. But don’t get too excited – this was more or less expected. WWTC’s numbers always drop after an election, and I’d expect a little more election fatigue than usual this time (after the ’04 election, we dropped from a 1.9 to a 1.2). Also, the shortening days make our night-time and morning-drive signal kinda dicey, about which more below.
And while it was a lousy book, you also need to account for the fact that when you get south of two points, Arbitron’s numbers are notoriously hinky.
In fact, KTNF showed only slightly behind KTLK, though of course KTLK has billboards all over the city and KTNF’s signal falls to something like 2000 Watts at night, with only having 5000 Watts during the day. I guess liberal talk is really “dull” while conservative talk, like Jason Lewis is scintilating.
Jason’s got some problems right now, no question about it. But KTNF is really dull. That’s the part I’m going to have to look into; how did KTNF get that kind of improvement? It certainly wasn’t based on the quality of programming. Lewis’ issues notwithstanding, there are only two shows on KTNF that are really airworthy – Miller and Schultz (their local show, Minnesota Matters, is a joke).
So before you dance up and down and fling poo in joy, remember that whenever you’re talking stations below two points, you can compare Arb numbers – but you’re better off comparing advertisers. Who’s buying time? Because it’s they that really know the market; it’s their advertising budgets on the line. WWTC’s inventory is mostly clients who spend decent money, and have been doing it for years – because they get a return on their investment. KTNF’s ad inventory, after three years, is pretty much low-value and high-turnover. The Arbs can tell you it’s foie gras, but the market still tells the advertiser it’s crushed goose parts.
In typical “truth in adverstising” fashion, Mitch’s claims about ratings were innacurate at the time he made them, meaning he probably doesn’t know the truth any more than anyone else, and he of course will ignore these facts, just like he did when the Spring 06 numbers showed KTNF and WWTC tied, even though WWTC’s signal strength is larger and the market more.
You are – I’ll be charitable – mistaken. There was no inaccuracy. As always, I report based on what I know. Until yesterday, my writing was based on the fall book – in which WWTC was clobbering KTLK everywhere except Limbaugh and Lewis (and KTLK is paying big bucks for Lewis, while WWTC gets Medved and Hewitt for free). It’s a new book, and the situation has changed.
And, in the spring, when the signal bounces back and people get over their election fatigue, the numbers will change – wildly – again.
I have not yet seen the all-important weekend numbers, but I suspect that the only part of the week over which I have any control, Saturday afternoons, continues to brutally hammer both KTLK and KTNF like a prison laundry-room beat-down. And the NARN’s complete mastery – nay, overlordship – of the weekend is the part that matters to me.
By the way, you’re wrong about the signals (or, to put it in the terms you foisted on me, “inaccurate”, and “untruth in advertising”; I guess, by your own standards, that everything you say is a lie, right?). WWTC’s signal is weaker than KTNFs. Both signals are 5000 watts during the day. A fact of AM radio physics is that signals for a given wattage get weaker, and dramatically so, the higher up the dial you go. KTNF’s 950 kC signal is thus stronger during the day than WWTC’s 1280 kC. At night, WWTC switches to a directional signal that blanks out much of the fast-growing, more-conservative East Metro area for the long evening hours (and much of morning drive). I don’t know what KTNF does at night – I believe they have a directional antenna – but whether it’s a reduction or a direction change, either way the signal from their stick in Eden Prairie combined with their lower frequency is more than strong enough to drench their core, Fifth-District audience with their drivel all night long.
The truth is, I don’t have any doubt KTNF and WWTC will move wildly up and down the ratings line, with WWTC more likely to lead because of signal strength and marketing, and also because their audiences are niche’ and small and will result in variance (small sample points mean great variance) – so I don’t gloat about KTNF as being “exciting” while WWTC is “boring”,
And it’s there that you are correct.
because both are mostly just division and preech hate.
Two points:
First – please show me what “hate” there is on AM1280? I’ll make it challenging for you – I mean besides Michael Savage (who I personally don’t like, listen to or endorse, but who never held a candle to Mike Malloy for pure spit-flecked rage).
Second – You’re PB under yet another name, aren’t you?
But I will ask when were you going to admit your inacuracy?
There was none. Merely timing. I don’t blog for a living; I’m as timely as I need to be.
And how does this fit in with your paradigm about the attractiveness and business model of liberal radio?
Paradigm? I think the word you want is “point of view”. Air America has filed Chapter 11, and in no market is liberal talk succeeding in ratings terms. It may be that liberal talk can succeed as a niche market – given that all the fawning press coverage they get certainly saves on promotion expenses – but at this point there’s no rational way to call liberal talk a success.
For that matter, when might you start talking about subjects after they turn against your view – such as Iraq? Who knows, maybe a bird will do it for him.
That cuts both ways,
PBMikeyJBauer“Donkey”.January 21st, 2007 at 6:37 pm
I didnt’ fling any poo in joy, that’s your department,
No, I’m rubber and you’re glue.
Sheesh.