Handicapping

In January of 2004, when we had the fateful lunch with Hugh Hewitt out at the late, great Billy’s Lighthouse in Minnetonka that directly led to the NARN going on the air in the first place, Hugh asked us for our electoral vote predictions. I forget the exact numbers – but other than bobbling Minnesota and Iowa (I thought MN would flip to Bush and Iowa would vote for Kerry; I obviously had it inverted) I pretty much nailed it. I’m not even sure why; I just had a pretty secure sense of how states were going go roll.

I should point out that my only real guide for this sort of prediction is very-loosely-informed intuition. I’m no analyst. And yet that “gut feeling” often does the trick for me.

I don’t really have a sense of where this election is going. Not yet. The Obama phenomenon was obviously going to change things bigtime. The Palin phenomenon – and the larger strategy of which it’s a part, the use of the red/blue divide as an active wedge – is changing it again; while a few weeks ago the lefties were making hopeful noises about flipping parts of the Great Plains, I really just don’t see it happening; Obama’s closed up shop in South Dakota and Montana, and he’s withering in North Dakota. (Hah hah hah!)

And now – well, there’s big news from the polls today, according to Ed:

As if the Barack Obama needed any more bad news, the St. Petersburg Times and Zogby both deliver cause for pessimism at Team O. Florida polling shows that despite spending millions in advertising in the Sunshine State and a delay in advertising for McCain, Obama is in worse position that John Kerry at the same time in 2004. Zogby has new polling that shows Obama now trails in Pennsylvania, a must-hold state for the Democrats.

Zogby is, of course, about as reliable as a meth addict’s 1972 Vega. But let’s assume for a moment he’s not entirely off his nut, and that Ed’s continuing analysis is right on. Using Opinion Journal’s excellent Electoral College calculator, let’s work out a couple of scenarios.

First: Let’s take Zogby at his word: Obama flips Nevada, Iowa, Colorado and North Carolina, and holds Michigan. Mac/Palin flips Pennsylvania and holds Virginia.

Too close for comfort, but certainly liveable.

And if Mac can squeedge out a win in Michigan?

I did all of the above before we got the blockbuster news that Minnesota – which Rasmusson on Friday called “Likely Democrat” – is, according to traditionally-inaccurate but usually DFL-skewed Minnesota Poll – showing Mac and Obama tied in Minnesota.

The poll found that McCain has made gains across the board since a May Minnesota Poll that showed him trailing by 13 points. He has picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education.

Conducted a week after the Republican National Convention was held in St. Paul, the poll likely reflects — at least in part — the traditional bounce candidates enjoy after being in the spotlight.

Part of the rise in McCain’s fortunes nationally has been attributed to his choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, a move that has energized his party’s conservative base.

So hypothetically – and this is extremely hypothetical – let’s just say Mac manages to flip Minnesota, and that flip takes one of the neighboring states with it. If Minnesota goes red, I’d suspect one of the neighboring states, Iowa or Wisconsin would, but let’s leave them out for the moment. Taking Minnesota and holding North Carolina would hold onto a McCain victory even if Obama took both Pennsylvania and Michigan.

I’m going to err on the side of caution; it’s still Obama’s race to lose. Make no mistake; the Republicans are the underdogs. Polling aside, Obama’s got months of momentum to overcome; see McCain/Palin as the X-wing pilots and Obama as the Death Star. Mac ‘n Sarah are still battling uphill against not only that status quo, but the legacy of ’06. Can Mac and Sarah refocus the campaign?

Well, that’s up to all of us, isn’t it?

8 thoughts on “Handicapping

  1. North Carolina won’t go to Obama. Not a chance. There are two polls showing McCain with a double-digit lead in that state. Even the Democracy Corps poll shows McCain ahead, and that’s a Democratic poll. Zogby seems to be the only poll showing Obama ahead there.

    My guess is that McCain will hold Nevada and North Carolina, just as Obama will hold Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. However, if the first round of debates give McCain a boost (and that seems likely), those states could flip. Obama still has a path to winning, but it’s trending away from him. McCain is still the underdog, but my guess is that a McCain blowout is becoming more and more likely.

    If PA swings McCain, I don’t see Obama as having a chance at winning. That’s Obama’s “must win” state, and that’s where Gov. Palin could make a difference in terms of bringing the Reagan Democrats into the McCain camp.

  2. With every news media in the nation supporting Obama, it can either give him the edge he needs to win, or they can continue their hate filled attacks on Governor Palin that will energize Republicans (we got our Wellstone funeral already) and offend undecides so much that they will go towards McCain-Palin.

    Example if media supporting Barry: Obama’s Pig with lipstick comment. No, he wasn’t calling Palin a pig, but the AP story on Thursday that every newspaper carried…it was basically an Obama press release.

  3. Oh, and one thing Palin has to do…thought McCain-Palin was smarter then this….she has to do live interviews. Not taped ones that can be edited to make her look bad.

    Bush 41 knew this in 1986 when Dan Rather tried to set him up. GHWB said he would only do a live interview with crazy Dan.

  4. I’m also in agreement that North Carolina won’t go to Obama.
    It seems like wishful thinking,–similar to the idea that Obama can win in Alabama or Georgia.
    Several rather unlikely states are tightening up as well in McCain’s favor though, including New Jersey and Washington (also unlikely to switch to McCain).

    One thing I think is missing in the discussion, though.
    When Nixon, Reagan and George HW Bush won respectively, it was by a large electoral vote margin.
    That meant that they were able to claim a “mandate” of their platforms.
    Even when the Repubs re-took Congress in 1994, it was a clear message.

    However, in this election I think that no matter who wins (Obama or McCain) it’s going to be very close.
    This means that the winner isn’t going to be able to claim a “mandate of the American people”.
    The winner is going to have to deal with a large portion of non-support, and they’ll have to compromise with the opposition to get things done.
    (FYI no, I don’t believe that the Dems will secure a veto-proof majority in the House or Senate)

    In my opinion Obama does not have the ability to compromise with the Repubs nor lead the Dems.
    I highly doubt that Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid would follow Obama (although the reverse may be true).
    John McCain, however, has shown that he can work with the Dems, and can lead the Repubs.

    Combine this with the American tendency to do things just to see it happen (ie having the first female VP) makes things look good for McCain.
    But, there’s a lot of time left, and anything can happen…

  5. Obama is not the favorite, that’s horsecrap. McCain is now leading in most polls, if McCain loses it will be because HE blew it, or more correctly, his message that ear-mark restraint will save the day, is nonsense.

  6. A sign that the Obama campaign is struggling….Obama has reached the “these guys” stage of political speach. Kerry reached this also.

    “These guys are so crooked”
    “These guys will say anything”
    “These guys are tools of Big Oil”

    That sort of thing.

  7. Obama is not the favorite…

    Well, I could use some data or substantiation to back up that claim…

    …that’s horsecrap

    Aaah. That makes everything clearer and more authoritative.

    “Horsecrap”. Gotta remember that.

    Look, Peev – Obama’s been leading this thing forever; a week of favorable polls doesn’t reverse six months of messianic media proselytizing overnight.

    If Mac leads consistently for the next three or four weeks, get back to us.

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