The Map
By Mitch Berg
So let’s indulge in that most pointless of diversions, trying to predict the Electoral College.
Here – with the help of the good folks at 270ToWin.com – is the media and Democrats’ (ptr) conventional wisdom; Obama holds Ohio and the rest of the blue Great Lakes states, and ekes out 271 electoral votes – in this case, 277-261.
And if Obama loses Ohio? That inverts nicely: Romney 279, Obam 259.
(Note that I’m assuming Colorado and New Hampshire vote Romney in both scenarios. I think they will).
So what about if Obama takes Ohio, but loses Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Colorado? Romney 271-267.
Now – how about the perfect Republican storm, all full of challenger-breaking independents and cascading preferences? If Romney takes Ohio and Wisconsin, and somehow hell freezes over and Minnesota goes red?
Romney 305-233?
Well, it’s fun to think about
October 30th, 2012 at 12:30 pm
Turn Minnesota blue and that last map becomes my map. I picked it two weeks ago and I stand by it. Romney gets 295.
October 30th, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Mitch that first map was the scenario that I gave Jeff in your other post. Obama can’t win without Ohio which he looks like he is losing, but the map works for Romney to win either way. In the first map since that chart was created we learned Wisconsin was tied and Iowa not only is tied, but the four major news papers all endorsed Romney.
That last map short of highlights what will happen in the 53-47 victory which I’m predicting for Romney.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
October 30th, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Yes, but what of the remaining seven of the 57 states?
October 30th, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Yossarian for the win! Nice work!
October 30th, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Romney not my ideal, but a damn sight better than last elections option. As someone that has not selected R for a Presidential candidate in the last six elections, I will simply to accomplish two things: 1) put Obama out of a job and 2) make Minnesota red.
October 30th, 2012 at 4:07 pm
Mr. D, I would love to share your optimism on MN, but the fact is the MNGOP is in shambles, and Mitt’s turnout relies heavily on the state operations. MN won’t happen.
I do think that it is possible that Mitt will win OH and WI. The fact is more likely that he wins both than that he would win one or the other. That is if he does what he needs to in OH, chances are high that he has done it in WI as well. If he hasn’t, well…
October 30th, 2012 at 5:16 pm
Prior to the hurricane, I’ve been telling people that I see a 330-210 landslide for Romney. Or, more accurately, against Obama.
But a major disaster with a week to go throws too many variables in the mix.
October 30th, 2012 at 5:25 pm
PJ, I agree — it will be close but no cigar in Minnesota.
October 30th, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Keep the marriage amendment in mind. A person who would’ve voted no was pretty certain to be out, but a yes vote might not have showed up. In the process a lot of them will vote for Romney. Keep in mind in 2004 President Bush won reelection in part because Ohio had on their ballot their version of man and woman marriage.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
October 30th, 2012 at 7:59 pm
I was in downtown Hudson Wisconsin tonight for the brief Ryan rally. Wisconsin is very much a possibility for Romney-Ryan.
October 30th, 2012 at 8:03 pm
Walter…the dufusses running the marriage amendment have finally figured out what it is all about. Not a vague values/religous issue, but that the gaystopo has pledged a scortched earth policy. They will destroy anyone who doesen’t submit. The marriage amendment supporters are finally running ads and doing mailings on this.
October 31st, 2012 at 12:18 am
Hopefully we can cobble together 50% + 1 peope who vote for that. If it loses it’s because they mismanaged a vote that might never happen again. Stil the bodies that come out that might not have come out would pull a lever for Romney. They certainly won’t pull it for the President who wants it!
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
October 31st, 2012 at 10:05 am
Andrew Breitbart’s old site Big Government is saying Illinois may be in play.
I certainly won’t predict Romney winning in States like MN or IL. However, the fact that WI, NH, MI, PA are in play doesn’t bode well for the “Won”.