So let’s indulge in that most pointless of diversions, trying to predict the Electoral College.
Here – with the help of the good folks at 270ToWin.com – is the media and Democrats’ (ptr) conventional wisdom; Obama holds Ohio and the rest of the blue Great Lakes states, and ekes out 271 electoral votes – in this case, 277-261.
And if Obama loses Ohio? That inverts nicely: Romney 279, Obam 259.
(Note that I’m assuming Colorado and New Hampshire vote Romney in both scenarios. I think they will).
So what about if Obama takes Ohio, but loses Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Colorado? Romney 271-267.
Now – how about the perfect Republican storm, all full of challenger-breaking independents and cascading preferences? If Romney takes Ohio and Wisconsin, and somehow hell freezes over and Minnesota goes red?
Well, it’s fun to think about