I was wondering when the European population gap was going to come to this:
When her water broke early on New Years Eve, Julia Gotschlich was mainly thinking about the imminent birth of her second child. But she couldnt help worrying about family finances, too.
She and her husband stood to lose out on more than $13,200 if the baby arrived before midnight, when Germanys generous new family benefits took effect – part of a government effort to raise one of the lowest birthrates in Europe.
Births in Germany dropped 4 percent in 2005 from the previous year, according to figures from the Federal Statistics Agency, to around 690,000. Thats the lowest since World War II and lagging even 1946, when 922,000 babies were born even as the country lay in ruins.
A recent government study forecast that Germanys population will drop by as much as 16 percent by 2050, from the current 82.4 million to as little as 69 million. That could hurt the economy by sapping the work force – and undermine the state pension system.
Not to mention leaving the country being assimilated into the Moslem world.
Will money do what social vitality can’t?
“social vitality”? What does that mean?
Interestingly this map of European fertility rates:
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=2053,62063338&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
suggests that countries with more generous social welfare policies (Scandanavia, France, and the Benelux area have higher fertility than the more ‘free market’ countries of Italy, Poland, and the Baltics.
Since the map doesn’t distinguish between fertility rates of immigrants and ethnic natives, it’s not especially useful. If you were to dig deeper and find that fertility rates of native French were far below replacement levels, while those of immigrants were vastly higher, it’d tend to to prove the point of those who worry about the future of Europe. That’d seem to be a kink in your methodology – or, as you’d put it if it were me, “proof that you are promiscuous with facts”.
The nations you cite – France, Scandinavia, the Netherlands – are the ones that are most worried about being swamped by immigrants. Since the average age of natives of France, Germany, the Benelux nations and so on is higher than the average age of a Pole or Magyar, that’s rather important.
Poland and the Baltics have younger populations (Germany 42.6; Netherlands 39.4; France 39.1; Poland 37; Lithuania 38.2; USA 36.5, according to the CIA Factbook) with fewer immigrants, economies that are growing rather than shrinking, and – this is kinda important – relatively vibrant, vital national cultures. Nobody’s worried about Poland or Lithuania being assimilated into the third world, as people are about France, Germany and Belgium.
“Since the map doesn’t distinguish between fertility rates of immigrants and ethnic natives, it’s not especially useful.”
Did you make such a distinction in your post? Maybe the U.S. fertility rate is higher because of our high immigration not ‘social vitality’.
No one said immigration levels had no effect. I was just pointing out that generous social welfare policies corelate with high fertility rates. If you have data to show that the difference in fertility rates can be entirely explained my immigration levels, do show.
Finally, please list any Euro economy with a ‘shrinking’ economy? I am fairly certain there are none.
Did you make such a distinction in your post
Why? It’s a post about German reactions to their population shrinkage.
Maybe the U.S. fertility rate is higher because of our high immigration not ’social vitality’.
Both are true; US immigrants have a higher fertility rate than natives, and we are still growing faster than our population (Democrat election notwithstanding).
No one said immigration levels had no effect. I was just pointing out that generous social welfare policies corelate with high fertility rates.
Right. You said it by way of saying “look, socialism is a good thing!”. I added a few key qualifiers that might cause a thinking reader to question that.
If you have data to show that the difference in fertility rates can be entirely explained my immigration levels, do show.
Um, Rick? You’re the one who posted an entirely ungermane (hah) map in a piece about German birthrate policy.
Finally, please list any Euro economy with a ’shrinking’ economy?
Actually, while none are “shrinking” per se, many are not growing fast enough to support the bulge in social welfare spending needed as their populations age. Since native Euro populations are well below replacement level, where else would the increase come from?
More.
Hence the scads of immigrant workers. And the problem.