9 thoughts on “Countdown”

1. One of two scenarios:

   • Goes down 5-4 on a party-line vote with a singularly nasty opinion from Bader Ginsburg; or
   • Goes down 6-3 with Sotomayor writing the majority opinion to limit the damage. This is the inverse of those who were predicting that Roberts would vote yes to limit the damage. And if this happens, watch for a concurrence from Scalia or Thomas that kicks Wickard v. Filburn hard in the shins.

2. I think Obama Care will be a partial birth abortion. Unfortunately, I think part of the law will survive.

3. I’m foolishly dreaming of a 7 – 2 vote for repeal, mostly because those on the left and in the media (pardon the redundancy) will be at an amusing loss for how to adequately explain it.

4. I don’t think that Obamacare will survive in its current form whatever the court decides.
   It would be nice, however, to have the court put a limit on the reach of the commerce clause. It would make all the right people very unhappy.

5. I’m assuming we’ll get the worst of all outcomes – the Court will find the individual mandate unconstitutional but severable from the rest of the bill. Either Roberts or Kennedy will write the majority opinion and the fallout will that the next Congress does not act to repeal the rest of the bill in its entirety but instead only focuses on the getting rid of the “unpopular” parts (like the Medicare “cuts,” the excise taxes on medical innovators, and IPAB) while preserving the “popular” stuff (guaranteed issue and no denial for preexisting conditions but with a few changes, mandating the insurance companies cover “children” up to age 26, etc.) which should blow an even larger hole in the federal budget.

6. Something else to consider is that I don�t see much about Roberts or Alito to make me think that either is a supporter of limiting the power of the federal government either on grounds of enumerated powers (both seem to be pretty deferential to the political branches), federalism or on the existence of a non-enumerated right. I think it�s likely that Roberts will be the author of the opinion if the vote is to either uphold the mandate or to strike it down but find it severable from the rest of the law but I wouldn�t make the assumption that either he or Alito necessarily will vote the way that many conservatives hope.

7. Certain features will likely survive even if the law is repealed. Things such as no lifetime limits on claims and including adult children to age 26 on their parents’ coverage have been popular and can be priced for by insurers and reinsurers (the added eligibility for older dependents has virtually no effect on claims experience so far).

   If the law is either struck down or upheld in its entirety, the health insurance industry will get along ok, and likely include the features above as part of doing business. The worst thing for the industry – and what could lead to its collapse – is if the Individual Mandate alone is struck down and the rest remains intact, including having to cover pre-existing conditions.

8. It gets overruled 5-4 and Obama runs against SCOTUS being an activist court, with a straight face. Seriously in all my years at the DDE I have never met someone as power hungry and ruthless as Obama, then again he did come from the Chicago machine so we should expect nothing less.

9. Overturned. Both components of the argument. Think the political leanings of the SCOTUS are peripheral considerations? Think about this: If Obama gets a second term he’s probably going to pick off at least one conservative. At that point, he would win this vote!

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.