Much Ado
By Mitch Berg
Simple truism of the American mainstream media; the faintest move to the left will be portrayed as a major tectonic change in American politics (while any drift to the right will be regarded as an anomaly or pathology).
One classic example; when Ed Schultz “went national” four years ago, he had six stations; Minneapolis, Fargo, and a bunch of small rural towns. Joe Soucheray had a bigger network at that time. And yet Schultz got a raving full-bore-hype showcase on the Today show, complete with Katie Couric cooing “is he the left’s answer to Rush Limbaugh?”.
Six stations.
Of course, that’s as nothing compared to the cacaphony any time any “traditionally Republican” group sheds any demographic dandruff.
Which brings us to this headline: “Evangelicals Flee the GOP“. That’d be pretty serious news, if were true…:
Michael Dudley is the son of a preacher man.
He’s a born-again Christian with two family members in the military. He grew up in the Bible Belt, where almost everyone he knew was Republican. But this fall, he’s breaking a handful of stereotypes: He plans to vote for Democrat Barack Obama.
“I think a lot of Christians are having trouble getting behind everything the Republicans stand for,” said Dudley, 20, a sophomore at Seattle Pacific University.
Dudley’s disenchantment with the GOP isn’t unique among young, devoutly Christian voters.
Er, I’m sure it’s not – inasmuch as the GOP does, always has, and always will poll weakest among “the young”; Churchill’s dictum (“a man who’s not a liberal at 20 has no heart; a man who’s not a conservative at 40 has no brain”) is as true now as ever. Whether being “an evange
Still – could it be true? Could young evangelicals be fleeling the GOP?
What is the nature of this catastrophic exodus? (I add emphasis):
According to a September 2007 survey by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, 15 percent of white evangelicals between 18 and 29, a group traditionally a shoo-in for the GOP, say they no longer identify with the Republican Party.
“Traditionally a shoo-in?”
Since when?
If 15 percent of that group “don’t identify with the GOP” now? Fine – what was that number in 2004? 2000? 1996?
We don’t know – because, I suspect, the answer would show what a non-story this is.
Or would, if it needed to – since, like most of those “[name your group] are deserting the GOP’ stories, further reading shows there’s really no there there.
But, Howard Dean, don’t count your chickens quite yet. College-age and 20-something Christians may be leaving the GOP, but only 5 percent of young evangelicals have joined the Democrats, according to the Pew survey. The other 10 percent are wandering the political wilderness, somewhere between “independent” and “unaffiliated.”
So in other words, out out of six evangelicals in an age group that society-wide traditionally doesn’t vote GOP, claim to be falling out with the party – and of them, only one in three is actually jumping to the Tics?
The real news would seem to be “Among Young Evanglicals, the GOP has a 17-1 (85%05%) Majority”.
I mean, wouldn’t it?
May 12th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
I believe this Pew article is the source of the stats in the article:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/605/young-white-evangelicals-less-republican-still-conservative
May 12th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
The real news would seem to be “Among Young Evanglicals, the GOP has a 17-1 (85%05%) Majority”.
I mean, wouldn’t it?
It would – if you wanted to cast the GOP in any positive light what-so-ever. But this IS the MSM we’re talking about here.
May 12th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
“inasmuch as the GOP does, always has, and always will poll weakest among “the young”; Churchill’s dictum (”a man who’s not a liberal at 20 has no heart; a man who’s not a conservative at 40 has no brain”) is as true now as ever”
Er no.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-year-by-year.html
From 1984 – 1994 the GOP polled stronger among the 18-29 age group than any other age cohort.
May 12th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
At both our precinct caucus and the county convention, there was a VERY strong turn-out of both 20-somethings and even high school kids. Strong and dedicated.
May 12th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
Mitch wrote:
“The real news would seem to be “Among Young Evanglicals, the GOP has a 17-1 (85%05%) Majority”
Again no. If you read the data Terry found, GOP party ID among young white evangelicals has fallen from 55% in 2001 to 40%. You are confusing the size of the drop in GOP party ID with the total % of non-GOP party IDs.
I am starting to feel bad about pointing out your mistakes. As a good DFLer, I really should leave you to wallow in the happytalk all the way to November.
May 13th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Ah. So the GOP ID isn’t 17-1. It’s “only” 8-1.
Among an age group that, society-wide, tends to vote Dem.
As to my “mistakes”, they tend to fall under th category of missing a few trees while seeing the forest. As opposed to, y’know, niggling about petty numbers that don’t change the conclusion one iota.
May 13th, 2008 at 9:24 am
Mitch wrote:
“So the GOP ID isn’t 17-1. It’s “only” 8-1.”
Third time is not the charm. Wrong yet again. For young evangelicals the current GOP to Dem ratio is 2 – 1, down from 3.4 – 1. The ratio of GOP to all others has turned from 1.2 – 1 in favor of the GOP to 3 -2 against the GOP.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:56 am
So what?
I actually feel sorry for you, Rick. On issue after issue, you stick your head like an ostrich into mounds of reassuring and, in the end, usually meaningless factoids that are pointless tangents from the main point; this supposed erosion of evanglicals is both fairly meaningless and devoid of larger context (MOST young people, being young and dumb, vote Dem; when they get married, have kids, and start getting real about life, they tend to slide to the right. Especially evangelicals).
Which, of course, was the point of my post; “so what?”
May 13th, 2008 at 11:45 am
I’d suggest using smaller words, but I think RickDFL will still find some way to miss the point. He is very resourceful in that respect.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:56 am
So what?
You repeatedly misstated critical evidence even when the numbers are clearly laid out for you. No one who reads SITD can rely on any fact you cite without checking it for themselves. It is a pattern. You assert that you ‘know’ X, only to have it turn out that X is not true. Don’t you think you owe it to your readers to check out info before?
Your original point was that the loss of some evangelicals was no big deal because the GOP still had a 17-1 majority. When challenged you mde up an 8-1 ratio. But it turns out that majority is only 2-1. I don’t know about your readers but it seems like a huge difference to me.
May 13th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
My point is confirmed. Thanks RickDFL!
May 14th, 2008 at 8:10 am
I wonder what percentage of young white evangelicals voted for Democrat Travis Childers, the winner of last night’s special election in MS-01, a district Bush got 62% of the vote in 04.
April 5th, 2010 at 9:38 am
[…] ago, as the ‘08 campaign was heating up, up, you started seeing the stories, asking “are evangelicals leaving the GOP? The story was like so many – an idea looking for a trend – that fairly screamed […]