IHS Global’s economic model – reported by James Pethoukoukis – sounds a dire warning for The One:
“Based on the likely state of the economy in 2012, President Obama faces a steep uphill task to secure reelection. Based upon our forecast for the economy, our election equation projects just a 43.5% share of the two-party vote for the president, i.e., a heavy defeat.”
Pethoukoukis:
It may already be too late for Obama, given the lengthy lag between an economic turnaround and voter economic perception. Then again, maybe the Gray Davis model—use a huge fundraising advantage to squeak out a win—can be effectively employed by Team Obama.
As we saw earlier, you can expect the Dems to pull out their biggest advantage – plutocrats – for all they’re worth. As it were.
But it’s not just IHS Global. Yale economist Ray Fair has a well-known election forecasting model that uses three economic variables to makes its call: a) growth rate of real per capita GDP in the first three quarters of 2012; b) growth rate of the GDP deflator in the first 15 quarters of the Obama administration, c) number of quarters in the first 15 quarters of the Obama administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at an annual rate.
Are you better off than you were four years ago?
If you listen to Michelle Obama I’m better off: more vegetables from the garden, more inexpensive produce from the farmer’s market, fresh eggs from my own chickens, etc.
My bank and retirement accounts, however, would beg to disagree with Ms. Obama.
Wait a minute, nerdbert! You got your own chickens?! Totally unfair! I never got any!
*cue AssClown* You wingnuts don’t even know how good you have it!…
*cue DeeGee* …Obama is sooooo intelligent… Harvard Law… not some peasant Community College… World respect… Blah blah blah… …talking points… chanting points… kos…
Boss, check out the laws on chickens. Even Minneapolis and St. Paul allow backyard chickens without roosters, although the number varies between the two cities. For most breeds that are cold-hardy you get between 3-6 eggs/week/chicken depending on type. And the eggs actually have taste!
For me in the boonies the biggest draw was the fact that they eat the ticks around here. I figured it was time for some payback.
So would this be the Chicken Indicator of economioc performance?
43% of the vote?
That means he’ll need a significant third-party candidate to stand a chance.
Any guesses as to who it will be?
nerdbert;
Since I live in the People’s Republic of Bloomington, I’ll have to check. The problem would be a pen in my backyard for them, because we have to get about 10 approvals to put a fence around the back yard. I agree with you on the taste factor. Before my uncle retired from farming about 15 years ago, he raised enough chickens to supply his family, his brother’s two families and sell a couple dozen in the local market. I guess that they were considered free range, as they ran all over the property. I used to go down there about once a quarter and get a couple dozen of his eggs and a couple of pounds of his brother’s bacon and sausage. Needless to say, breakfast for a couple of weeks after that were maginifico!
Close, Mitch. The Democrats’ biggest weapon isn’t plutocrats. It’s Mitt Romney.