Back To The Future
By Mitch Berg
Mike Huckabee – the GOP’s Jimmy Carter, the Republican that Hillary! wants to face in November – has apparently won the Hawkeye Cauci:
Mike Huckabee, a Baptist preacher turned politician, grabbed a slight lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney Thursday night in the Iowa caucuses, first test in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards vied for the Democratic victory.
Sigh.
Decent finish for Thompson, anyway.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:26 pm
And Hilary! finished tied for second, or, considering her vast funding advantage, third in the sense of who is gaining support. Yet, you won’t hear many Republicans talk about anything but Hilary.
Huckabee’s win says two things.
First, Social Conservatives, specifically evangelicals, have done a more effective job of taking over the party than the party wants.
Second, even Republicans don’t think too much of how things have been run for tha past 7 years. It is interesting that you still defend this amoral and corrupt administration. The party rank and file have left him behind, and they should.
Obama’s win says the Democrats think about as much of the Democratic Party’s coziness with corporate America as Republicans think of Rudy Gulliani’s Gravitas. It’s nice that Hilary says she’s a Democrat (I guess), but she’s got the same moral compass that Rudy! does, namely, whatever it takes, no holds or positions barred.
January 4th, 2008 at 1:35 am
Who the hel is Hilary? Is she married to Bil?
You might be able to make the case that a Huckabee win indicates that evangelicals are dissatisfied with the other candidates, but it doesn’t mean that the base has turned against the President. Perhaps you don’t realize this, but Bush is not running.
The guy collecting the anti-Bush votes is Ron Paul, and he only got ten percent of the tally.
I don’t know where to begin to address your third point.
January 4th, 2008 at 2:15 am
A few stats to counter Peeve’s second point:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#val=IAREP
January 4th, 2008 at 2:36 am
I guess Rush might have to eat crow for a few of his 20 million plus listeners.
January 4th, 2008 at 7:20 am
You think he knows? Huckabee doesn’t seem to pay a lot of attention to current events.
January 4th, 2008 at 8:24 am
I think peevish might be reading a bit much into the Iowa caucuses, to say nothing of the conclusions reached. Even if they say exactly what peevish thinks they are saying, they say it only in Iowa, and their caucuses are important today and may continue to be until the next primary event. When is that again? *shrug*
January 4th, 2008 at 8:45 am
Rick,
I guess Rush might have to eat crow for a few of his 20 million plus listeners.
Why? Because not-especially-politically-aware evangelicals turned out to caucuses – not primaries! – in Iowa?
Not really dispositive.
Peev,
First, Social Conservatives, specifically evangelicals, have done a more effective job of taking over the party than the party wants.
Er, no. They’ve done an effective job of getting out the vote to the Iowa Caucuses. There are a bunch of primaries and, possibly, a contested convention coming up.
Second, even Republicans don’t think too much of how things have been run for tha past 7 years… The party rank and file have left him behind, and they should.
What PeterH said.
’06 was the referendum on Bush among the base. Spending was a big issue. But I’ll direct you to Bush’s latest several rounds of approval polls. The base is critical, but still behind him.
It is interesting that you still defend this amoral and corrupt administration.
No, it’s interesting that I support this administration that was elected by a plurality of the public, and is wrong about a few issues but right about so many more, and who has the added entertainment benefit of making some of his opponents so very, very deranged.
Obama’s win says the Democrats think about as much of the Democratic Party’s coziness with corporate America as Republicans think of Rudy Gulliani’s Gravitas.
Again, no – they say that Iowa’s GOP base, like lots of rural GOP bases, is highly focused on social issues, and isn’t really Giuliani’s turf. And that this is the caucuses, where the different factions in the party take their best shot at getting their people out to the polls to get their guy or gal the best showing they can.
There is no way in hell Ron Paul gets 10% of the entire GOP base in this country.
It’s nice that Hilary says she’s a Democrat (I guess), but she’s got the same moral compass that Rudy! does, namely, whatever it takes, no holds or positions barred.
Nice, perhaps – and, as re Rudy, completely inaccurate. Giuliani, whatever his faults and among the many things about him that I don’t care for, has at least established and stuck to some consistent beliefs. You can say that’s the same as Hillary!, but you’d be mistaken.
January 4th, 2008 at 9:29 am
McCain. Just sayin’.
January 4th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Asked and answered.
January 4th, 2008 at 11:06 am
What the heck is going on in Iowa? I’m a church-going republican and I would stay home rather than vote for Huckabee.
January 4th, 2008 at 11:18 am
Let’s not panic. It’s the Iowa Caucuses. Caucuses reward organization and emotional appeal to the people who…well, show up at caucuses. It’s not the election.
We – Republicans and other Real Americans – can still save the day.
But, as we saw in SD25 last night, we can’t diddle around a whole lot more.
January 4th, 2008 at 11:50 am
All according to Rudy’s plan. Let Huck kneecap Romney, let Thompson sneak past McCain, then invite Huck down into the swamps of Florida for a little Bronx justice. Ever been to a Giants game at Dolphin stadium? It’s like that.
Rudy sticks, he doesnt’ flippity flop on taxes like Maverick McCain.
Rudy clarifies, Rudy cuts through. Rudy, for lack of a better word, is good.
Come on down to my boat, baby!
/jc
January 4th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Even if they say exactly what peevish thinks they are saying, they say it only in Iowa, and their caucuses are important today and may continue to be until the next primary event. When is that again? *shrug*
The next (first) primary is tomorrow in Wyoming.
January 4th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Let the word go out from this day forward: If the Republicans nominate Huckaster, I shall not seek, nor shall I accept any request to vote for that dumbass. For crying out loud, I’d sooner vote for AngryClown than that idiot preacher. At least it would be fun watching AC kick recalcitrant heads of state with his size 33 bright red shoes. Huckabee wouldn’t even recognize any heads of state, and thinks this is a good thing. Now, I know the current crop from either party is not exactly stellar, but if we can’t do better than this guy, we might as well pack it in and vote AC. And it kills me to say that.
January 4th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Obama (aka Democrats Dan Quayle) wins pretty solidly. Let’s see, he’s providing a strong challenge to the Clinton policital machine. I’m thinking some nasty stuff about him will be leaked to the media by an unnamed source soon.
January 4th, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Now, I know the current crop from either party is not exactly stellar,
I don’t think that’s exactly true. While I wouldn’t vote for either one, Dodd and Richardson were both pretty solid candidates although Dodd just dropped out and Richardson hasn’t gained any traction. On the GOP side, Romney, McCain and Giuliani are all extremely well qualified candidates and I would be happy to support any of them.
I think that there has been waaay too much hype over Iowa. Even tomorrow’s Wyoming primary will have a greater impact (14 votes to Iowa’s 13 – none of which have been actually allocated yet) than last night’s caucus. Not to mention that Michigan, Florida, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are all up this month.
Mark your calendar for February 5th when we all get to vote on Super Tuesday. All of the major contenders have said they are staying in until at least that long. At that point we’ll have a much better picture of their relative support and know which candidates will be staying and which will not.
Full Disclosure: my order of preference for the candidates is Romney, McCain, Giuliani, and Thompson.
January 4th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
Giuliani wins a head-to-head with Huckabee in Florida? Are you serious? You’re counting on what to suppress the evangelical vote in Florida?
How can Giuliani win Florida? If Thompson shows well in NH or SC, and McCain and Romney aren’t crushed en route, then there are 5 viable candidates running in Florida. Then it possible for Giuliani to win with 21 percent of the tally.
January 4th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
Quayle couldn’t carry OBama’s jock. I can’t remember the last time Barack said, “It’s nice to be here in Hawaii, which is in the Pacific, which is where it is.”
and Mitch, saying I’m wrong and proving I’m wrong aren’t equivilant activities. Guiliani has the moral compass of a drunken sailor – he’s for abortion then against it, he’s for gun control, then against it, he’s about as consistent as the wind. He’s got one issue.
Social Conservatives are, among other things, populists, by and large at least. They represent, when discussing economics, a potential anethma for the GOP Business suit types – they’ve done far more than taken over in Iowa. Whether it changes in some other State’s primaries or no, Bush has been repudiated by his own party, conflating the fact that they still say he’s doing “ok” or even “good” hardly means they like what’s happened. Beyond that, you say he’s done a few things wrong and many good things, well, I guess that proves it then.. I mean I’m sure we couldn’t list a few dozen things that have been terribly, terribly wrong, vetted against what? I know you like his judicial appointments, but before we crow about how there haven’t been any attacks since 9/11, let’s remember that prior to 9/11, there was precisely ONE attack – on the WTC – in the US by foriegn born terrorists, and it’s not really true there’ve been no attacks, after all, we had the wonderful anthrax attack.
So you can claim the base isn’t disaffected, but there’s little credibility for it, and Iowa is case #1. People may state they still like Bush, but they’re looking for something much more concerned with the plight of the middle class, of middle america for that matter, whether you see it or not makes no real difference. We’ll see what a few weeks bring. Romney and Guiliani and McCain have HUGE funding advantages and organizational advantages, so it may be, whatever the mood of the rank and file Republici are, that Huckabee can’t win, but it won’t be proof of much of anything if he loses, other than he has no money or organization, whereas if he wins, it will be solid proof that Republici don’t think much of 1.5 Trillion spent in Iraq, of a 50% increase in the national debt, and mostly, of the policy of politics at all costs, no conviction, and no integrity.