When after a year of joking that Obama might be re-run of the Carter years, suddenly it seemed that that might be the best case?
My joke may have been correct:
The most important fact to take from the September unemployment report released last week is that almost three years after the recession began the economy was still losing jobs! Almost 100,000 (95,000) additional jobs were lost last month from the economy overall. That makes 400,000 jobs lost since May. Moreover, in a regular annual benchmark revision to calibrate unemployment rates for updated data, the BLS reported a further 366,000 jobs lost for March. The total number of Americans unemployed stands at almost 15 million (14.8).
Malaise? The kids’ve got it!
Based on the long standing history and rhythms of the American economy, we should have had a booming recovery by now. Even more so, since the deeper the recession the stronger the recovery. Real economic growth in the first 4 quarters of Reagan’s recovery from the deep 1981-82 recession was a whopping 7.7%. Even the recovery under President Ford from the deep 1973-74 recession sported real economic growth of 6.2%.
But under President Obama we are already in another downward spiral, with real growth falling from 5% in the fourth quarter of 2009, to 3.7% in the first quarter of this year, to 1.7% in the second quarter.
Moreover, as the brilliant economist John Lott explained for FoxNews.com yesterday, the base unemployment rate has been stuck at least at 9.5% for 14 months now, over three full percentage points higher than the average unemployment rate during the recession. Since Obama became President, the U.S. unemployment rate has increased faster than 25 of 30 other major industrialized countries, as reported by the Economist.
Rumors that Obama is planning a stimulus for junior hockey in time for the next winter Olympics are at this time unconfirmed.
Seems he is closer to Reagan than Carter
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In a survey of approximately 1,500 adults nation-wide, Gallup said on Oct. 6 that Obama’s approval rating was 48 percent. By comparison, Bill Clinton, the previous Democrat to reside in the White House, had a 42 percent approval rating at the same time in his presidency.
Republican icon Ronald Reagan, similarly, had an approval rating hovering around 42 percent at this time in his presidency, thanks to the country’s languishing economy which was largely credited for a Republican loss of 28 House seats in 1982.
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The similarities abound, inherited recession, languishing economy after 2 years, followed by a bath in the mid terms, followed by success.
This story’s ending hasn’t been written yet. Part of me actually hopes for a GOP takeover of both house (anything short of that will be electoral failure for the current minority). Will make it much harder to play the blame game come 2012.
Flash
Just attended a supplier conference for a chain of home improvement stores. Their CEO, economist and forecasters spoke about what they think the next few years will bring. Their once aggressive expansion plans have been tabled and more moderate growth plans were presented (to be fair, this has been the case the past four years). Their statements were couched in uncertainty with their forecasts leading one to believe that they are truly waiting for the other shoe(s) to drop, be it further high unemployment, skyrocketing health care costs, increased regulatory compliance costs or just the general anti-business climate brought on by this administration. Anyway, my company won’t be adding any employees to support the product line we make for them.
So Flash, I take from your comment that you saw Reagan’s Presidency as a successful one? That might spill a little beer among some in your garage.
Also, you note that unless the Minority Party (aka the Republicans aka the wing nuts aka the teabaggers) wins the both houses in 2010 it will be an electoral failure. This is something I’ve noted Regressives saying lately, ie. David Plouffe, the guy who sold America the “Current Occupant”, President Empty Suit. This is like Tim Brewster predicting that if the Buckeyes don’t beat the Gophers by at least 5 touchdowns, they will have lost the game.
Seflores,
As I have previously related via comments on the blog, I am hearing the same thing from the businesses that I am calling on. My target accounts are those with from 25 to 250 employees and include existing customers and prospects, so I have a pretty good cross section. My business, in part, is dependent on product refreshes/upgrades every three to four years. Consequently, it is very telling when the customers that are overdue for upgrades, are standing pat until after January 1. I believe that this factor will translate to a weak Q4, at least for me.
“Will make it much harder to play the blame game come 2012.”
You people had no problem placing the blame for the recession solely on Bush despite the fact that it started while he was saddled with a Dem Congress.
Just to clarify the Learned Foot’s comment, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and the Democrat party have controlled Congress since January, 2007. This economy belongs to them. If stating facts is playing “the blame game”, count me in as a player.
We can’t go back to the failed policies of the present.
We can’t go back to the failed policies of the present
Line of the day.
Kermit;
I concur with Mitch! You are indeed the wordsmith exceptionale!
flash babbles, trying to compare Reagan to Carter: Republican icon Ronald Reagan, similarly, had an approval rating hovering around 42 percent at this time in his presidency, thanks to the country’s languishing economy which was largely credited for a Republican loss of 28 House seats in 1982.
And later he mumbles: Part of me actually hopes for a GOP takeover of both house (anything short of that will be electoral failure for the current minority).
In his babble he sets the bar for comparison at losing 28 House seats.
In his mumble he sets the bar at a minimum of 10 Senate seats and 79 House seats.
I gather math and logic were never his strong suit in school.
While I never like to tempt Fate, I think we can rest assured that based on the first babble folks don’t has as positive an opinion of Reagan than Carter.
In an evil twist, maybe I should agree with flash. Maybe people think Obama is as good as Reagan, it’s just that the Democrats now are far, far worse than the Republicans and it’s just that Obama’s incompetent at directing Democratic policy.
Flash’s cognitive dissonance is strong today. Think about this — first, comparing Obama to Reagan, he says:
The similarities abound, inherited recession, languishing economy after 2 years, followed by a bath in the mid terms, followed by success.
Assumes facts not in evidence, but we’ll let it slide for now. Then flash says:
This story’s ending hasn’t been written yet. Part of me actually hopes for a GOP takeover of both house (anything short of that will be electoral failure for the current minority). Will make it much harder to play the blame game come 2012.
If you assume the second half of Obama’s term is going to be successful, there wouldn’t be any need for a “blame game,” right? The narrative problem would be for Obama to stop the GOP from claiming credit for the Obama-generated success, doncha think?
The funniest part is, the Democrat party will most likely retain majority status at a much reduced ratio. They spent 20 months blaming the GOP for their failures while holding veto-proof, majorities.
I realize Democrats think the average American is stoopid, but I don’t think they can sell that shinola much longer.
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The hopenchange clingers like to compare approval ratings of Obama to Reagan, but the recession under Reagan wasn’t over just 5 months after he assumed office. We are 16 months into recovery and we are still floundering, while 16 months into Reagan’s recovery things were booming and the unemployment rate had already gone down a few points.
Flush- “….Anything short of that will be electoral failure for the current minority.” Let me fix that sentence for ya- “Anything short of at least a one percentage point improvement in the unemployment rate will be a total policy failure for the current majority.” There.