Shot in the Dark

Attention, Christians: Strib Is Loading Lions Into Chute

There’s going to be a new “Minnesota” Poll tomorrow in the Strib.

Here are my fearless predictions; I predict a couple of things:

  1. Despite the fact that actual, reputable polls show Tom Emmer inside the margin of error  (despite having been outspent by a 16:1 margin so far in this campaign), the “Minnesota” Poll will show Emmer down, probably by two digits.
  2. The local media and DFL-leaning “alternative” media will take this as a huge boost for the DFL…
  3. …notwithstanding the fact that the poll will drastically oversample Democrat-leaning voters.
  4. But you’ll only learn that on conservative blogs and talk radio.

This pattern is iron-clad and absolute; the Minnesota Poll is a useless appendage that serves only as a morale-builder for the DFL; the only exception has been in 2008, when the GOP did so badly that the DFL didn’t need the help.

This year?  Facing a solid GOP candidate with three nonentities and facing an “Independence Party” candidate that will take three DFL votes for every two Republicans, in a year when anti-tax-and-spend fever is sweeping every part of this nation outside the Beltway and Kenwood?

The morale-builder is needed.

My favorite bit of Minnesota Poll history; immediately before the 2002 gubernatorial election, the Minnesota Poll showed Roger Moe with a slim but significant lead, while Tim Pawlenty and IndyParty candidate Tim Penny duked it out for second in a near-statistical tie.  You may recall that Pawlenty won pretty handily, while Penny got about half the share the MNPoll predicted.

Luke Hellier at MDE has more:

Let’s use the 2006 Governor’s Race as an example.
On November 6 the poll showed the following:
Tim Pawlenty 39%
Mike Hatch 42%
Peter Hutchinson 7%
Just a day later, Minnesotans went to the poll an reelected Tim Pawlenty to a second term. The actual results were:
Tim Pawlenty 46%
Mike Hatch 45%
Peter Hutchinson 6%
In the US Senate Race, the poll showed Mark Kennedy only receiving 33%. On election day he received 38%
Going back 2 years earlier, the poll had President George Bush only with 42% of the support in Minnesota. On election day the President received the support of 48% of Minnesotans.
Needless to say, the Minnesota Poll vastly under estimates the support of Republicans while inflating that of Democrats.

Powerline was also shredding the Minnesota Poll long before most people had heard of either the poll or the blog.

The whole intent is to try to demoralize the undecided but GOP-leaning voter – the ones that are going to decide this election.

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21 responses to “Attention, Christians: Strib Is Loading Lions Into Chute”

  1. Dog Gone Avatar
    Dog Gone

    Indications are that a number of races where it was thought the GOP and/or tea party had a potential advantage seem to be going badly.

    Angle lost her lead against Reid in Nevada. Emmer doesn’t seem to be gaining, and as the Democrats haven’t had their primary yet, it is to be expected that the votes among the potential democractic candidates will be down, not up, from their potential once a campaign begins.

    I’m not thrilled with any of the independent or democratic candidates, but Emmer may be more a victim of his own gaffes than anything done by the competition.

  2. golfdoc50 Avatar
    golfdoc50

    Good call Mitch. Right there on page one. Who do you like in the third race at Canterbury Downs?

  3. Kermit Avatar
    Kermit

    “Gaffes”, Dog? Plural? Aside from the egregiously distorted tip thing, what “gaffes” would that be?

  4. Mitch Berg Avatar
    Mitch Berg

    Indications are that a number of races where it was thought the GOP and/or tea party had a potential advantage seem to be going badly.

    Badly enough that “indications” are the Dems will lose the House; they’ll be filibusterable in the Senate, and they’ll likely lose a slew of governors races.

    Sorry, DG; the Tea Party is not the be all/end all of conservative politics, and Sharon Angle is not the bellwether of the year’s elections.

    Emmer doesn’t seem to be gaining

    Maybe it’s a coincidence, but that’s the DFL’s expected spin. Of course Emmer’s “not gaining”; he’s been outspent 16:1 so far. ABM alone – the Dayton family’s astroturf group – will spend triple what Emmer’s entire campaign spends this eleciton. He’s saving his kick for September and October.

    The real story is among reputable polls, Emmer is within the margin of error. Even after being outspent 16:1 and – this from a campaign source – getting hit by more attack ads so far than Pawlenty got in all of 2006.

    Emmer may be more a victim of his own gaffes than anything done by the competition.

    His “gaffes” are pretty much media-manufactured.

    By the way – at my favorite bar? Manager tells me three of his waitresses make six figures. I suppose the fact that not EVERY one of them makes six figures is proof Emmer’s detractors are right, right?

  5. Dave Thul Avatar
    Dave Thul

    “Angle lost her lead against Reid in Nevada.”

    Good thing the new Minnesota poll will give you a new talking point, since Reid/Angle is back to within the margin of error.

  6. Mr. D Avatar
    Mr. D

    The only poll that matters is Nov. 2.

    And by the way, this will be the week that Dayton and Entenza stop tag-teaming Emmer and start attacking one another. Neither of them is spending millions to let the other guy win the primary. I expect they’ll provide the Emmer campaign with some excellent stuff to use later on, when people are paying attention.

    I also enjoyed the open letter/shakedown full page ad that the Human Rights Campaign put in the Star Tribune, essentially telling Target and Best Buy that they’d better stop acting in their own interest and get with the program. I’ll bet Randi Reitan is getting ready to return a MP3 player at Best Buy even as we speak, with an UpTake camera crew in tow.

  7. Kermit Avatar
    Kermit

    I can’t understand why anyone would waste precious time and grey matter reading the Star Tribune. You can go to the DFL website directly.

  8. flash Avatar
    flash

    Yeap, you’re right ‘mitch’, Emmer’s got it in the back. Nothing to see here, move along!! LOL

    The Minnesota Poll is always wrong, unless its right, and SitO gets to decide. Ohhhh the power Hahahaha

    Even RepulicanMussen and gopUSA polls show the race trending Dem. this latest ‘snapsot in time’ is consistent with those trends. But don’t let reality get in the way of your spin LOL You wouldn’t have anything else to do with your time.

    And the Minnesota poll today isn’t the same methodology as the one from before, but apples to toothpick comparisons are your forté

  9. Chuck Avatar
    Chuck

    “I also enjoyed the open letter/shakedown full page ad that the Human Rights Campaign put in the Star Tribune, essentially telling Target and Best Buy that they’d better stop acting in their own interest and get with the program.”

    Both companies give large amounts of money to that organization. Best Buy links to it on their internal web site. I say it again…the left controls the debate. Shouldn’t there be a discussion about how a gay-rights group wants not only to be funded by, but to control Minnesota businesses.

  10. Kermit Avatar
    Kermit

    Woah, Flash. Hitting the Victory Gin koolaid a bit early today? Mitch is ‘mitch’ (with scare quotes) and Emmer has “got it in the back”?
    2 LOLs and a Hahahaha? You are becoming incoherent, buddy.

  11. flash Avatar
    flash

    Kerm, it is the Swiftee style of incoherence. I figured it was the only way for you guys to understand.

  12. Kermit Avatar
    Kermit

    So, you are emulating Swiftee. Right. What flavor is that kool aid?

  13. Mitch Berg Avatar
    Mitch Berg

    The shorter flash: “I know you are but what am I? (g)”

    The Minnesota Poll is always wrong, unless its right, and SitO gets to decide

    The Minnesota Poll HAS BEEN wrong in every election, from 1998 through 2006. They got 2008 right, but that was a terrible year for the GOP; the DFL didn’t need the morale-builder.

    And yes, Flash. I DO get to decide. It’s called the First Amendment, although if the DFL and their union thug friends take over that might be a moot point.

  14. Kermit Avatar
    Kermit

    Careful ‘mitch’. You already have a bunk assigned at Camp L. Don’t make the Commisariat reassign you to Camp Q. You won’t like Camp Q.

  15. flash Avatar
    flash

    ‘mitch’ Like I said, the only thing you can compare this Minnesota Poll to and any other year, is the name, and name alone. But we don’t want you minions to know the truth now, do we . . . .

  16. Mitch Berg Avatar
    Mitch Berg

    Flash,

    That bit you just wrote there ? What does it mean? Do you even know?

    The MNPoll has a methodology – it always has. And except for 2008 it has delivered results that have been curiously DFL-friendly, right when the DFL needed ’em – at primary time (to drive turnout), just in time for final fundraising, and just before the generals. And except for 2008 (and blowout races like Klobuchar/Kennedy).

    The week before 1998, they showed Slipper with a commanding lead the week before the election.

    In September of ’02, they showed Pawlenty trailing badly to Moe; the week before thee election, a three-way tie with Moe ahead.

    Bigger post this week on the whole history of the MNPoll and the *completely random, yessirreebob* aberrations in their numbers.

  17. Kermit Avatar
    Kermit

    Now ‘mitch’, you wouldn’t want to disabuse Mr. ‘Centrisity’ of his orthodoxy, would you?

  18. K-Rod Avatar
    K-Rod

    Deegee/flushee/peevee, do you actually think for yourself before you post?

    Ayebee, you actually seem like the most sane of the lefty-bloggers that have the guts to comment on SitD. But it would be nice to see peevee/flushee/deegee give just one response after they are taken to task. (Well, outside of the delete and ban you after you take them to task on their own blog. Typical of teh FlushBlog and PenisBlog)

  19. swiftee Avatar
    swiftee

    You couldn’t deal with the constant rhetorical ass whippings I dealt you, so you pulled the covers over your head Flush…..but now you think you can “emulate” me?

    Pffft. You’re not worthy to hold on to my belt loop, boy.

  20. tom a. Avatar
    tom a.

    Wow! The Strib “non-recommendation” for the GOP primary was one of their best efforts yet. I guess Mr. Emmer can rule out their endorsement in November…

  21. The Greenroom » Slow and steady Emmer rallies while primaries approach

    […] Emmer, however, displayed as much lack of concern for his fiscal limitations as conservative blogger Mitch Berg, among supporters at O’Gara’s, did for the Tribune poll, which he has termed a “useless appendage that serves only as a morale-builder for the DFL”. […]

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