Poll This
By Mitch Berg
The KSTP/Survey USA poll yesterday confirmed my predictions on both counts.
First – as I’ve been predicting for the past few weeks, Dayton seems to be pulling away.
Dayton – 39
Kelliher – 26
Entenza – 22
There are still eight weeks until the DFL primary, but Dayton’s out-state name recognition and years as a “Senator” are giving him a huge head start.
As I noted yesterday, Emmers numbers were (expectedly) off from the May, post-convention numbers – but the match between Emmer and Dayton is a statistical tie.
Emmer – 35
Dayton – 38
Horner – 12
Remember, Republicans – the Dems are going to play this like the election is already over. Don’t believe the hype. This is the truth: Dayton is a former US Senator with huge name recognition across the state – and he’s polling within the margin against a state representative who three months ago was unknown to most non-GOP Minnesotans.
That is, at the very least, not good news for Dayton or the DFL.
Note that Horner’s numbers from the ballyhooed PiPress poll from last week do seem, as we noted here, to have been BS – off a solid third. If the PiPress poll wasn’t rigged (the poll was run by a friend of Horner’s), then it was too sloppy to worry about.
Emmer and Kelliher? Not that it matters; it’ll take a miracle to get her through the primary…
Emmer – 35
Kelliher – 33
Horner – 12
…although Dayton has made a career out of giving his opponents miracles. Still, at this stage it seems the DFL endorsement is on track to remain the electoral kiss of death.
Emmer and Entenza? Who cares – Entenza is DOA. But here y’go:
Emmer – 37
Entenza – 33
Horner – 12
Stick a fork in it.
Some perspective here: in 2002, polls were showing Tim Pawlenty trailing Roger Moe by eight, and Tim Penny by 6 – in September.
This campaign is shaping up pretty well.
June 18th, 2010 at 9:09 am
I’m happy as can be!
Dayton has name recognition, but people have short memories….just wait until they are reminded about his shameful record of FAIL in the US Senate.
June 18th, 2010 at 9:39 am
Emmer – 35
Kelliher – 33
I like that one, purely because of petty Facebook politics (gal I went to school with is licking MAK’s boots pretty much because MAK is a she)
just wait until they are reminded about his shameful record of FAIL in the US Senate.
Let’s hope that IF Emmer goes this route, when the inevitable “NEGATIVE CAMPAIGNING” caterwauling erupts from the left, that Emmer lets it drip off him like water from a duck. I have every confidence that he would, but…
June 18th, 2010 at 10:16 am
I heard Mark bought an extra big desk to hide under.
June 18th, 2010 at 10:17 am
Daytons failings extend far beyond his attendance to the senate. I am sure if Daytons democrat opponents do not remind the public the Emmer campaign and many others will. Any bets which Dem will sling the mud first?
June 18th, 2010 at 10:31 am
Crosstabs are interesting, at least compared to the media’s meme: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e07de5cf-2408-4769-9ad1-e26706d7873a
Horner pulls 10% DFL support and only 7% GOP support. And who leads among self-described independents? Emmer with 30%.
Horner seems locked in 12% – not bad considering the negative press he’s gotten and the minimal advertising he’s done. But he tops out at 14% in terms of Republican support and gets as high as 21% among Democrats. And in none of the matchups does his GOP support exceed his DFL support. In short, despite being a “former Republican”, he’s drawing support as most IP candidates not named Ventura have – from the center-left.
June 18th, 2010 at 1:56 pm
Imagine Dayton or big MAK with a DFL majority in the Senate and House. Then imagine the enormous sucking sound from the Fiscal Black Hole in St Paul.
If a DFLer wins the orcs will likely hold majorities in both houses. The Governors office is the most important race in MN this year. Let them spend everything they have trying to beat Bachmann.
June 18th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
Not sure how this happened, but it was a lot of fun. A DFL’er called me and asked me to take part in a survey about the guv race. SURE! Of course, I stayed on the phone for 20+ minutes.
They seemed pretty worried that Dayton was going to win. They didn’t want to bash him, but they really played MAK up! They also said that a vote for Emmer was a vote for Sarah Palin! I almost burst out into laughter. They said that “Emmer could see Canada from his home”. Then I laughed.
June 18th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
“Any bets which Dem will sling the mud first?”
Someone from outside the race. Neither Big MAK nor Entenza would want to be caught red handed slinging mud against a potential donor to a future campaign.
June 18th, 2010 at 3:18 pm
“Any bets which Dem will sling the mud first?”
My money’s on Tommie the Commie Rukyvina.
June 18th, 2010 at 4:04 pm
“First Ringer Says:
June 18th, 2010 at 10:31 am
Crosstabs are interesting, at least compared to the media’s meme: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e07de5cf-2408-4769-9ad1-e26706d7873a”
Funny Emmer out polls with the 18-49 crowd better than any DFL candidate. The DFL candidate wins the over 50 crowd. Isn’t this exactly opposite of what the local MSM would have us believe?