Just A Hunch

I got the strangest sensation last week.  I haven’t had this sensation in the longest time.  Maybe a brief flash in 2000, but it wasn’t quite the same thing.

The DFL realizes that they’ve got nothing.

The Strib referenced Ben Smith in Politico this morning, saying that…:

Pawlenty appears to have run the table on the Democratic majorities in both of the houses of the legislature, forcing them to drop plans for new surcharges and scrap their top priority, an expansion of federal and state-funded health care for some of the state’s poor. They also enacted spending cuts that a court recently ruled Pawlenty could not make himself.

He will complete his two-term tenure at the end of this year having fulfilled his pledge not to raise taxes, with his approval ratings in positive territory, and having largely avoided the pragmatic compromises that often bedevil governors in polarized party primaries. His success gives him the accomplishments to match his conservative rhetoric, and set a high bar for other ambitious governors facing budget crises of their own in this lean year.

“We have some pretty clear values and principles in mind that we adhere to and when it relates to those core values and principles we don’t compromise on,” Pawlenty told POLITICO in an interview Monday after what he said was two hours of sleep on each of the two previous nights. “When it comes to issues around the role of government taxes and amounts of spending and other things, those are core values and principles by which we set our compass, and we stay strongly on that course and we battle.”

It’s a good piece.  You should read the whole thing. 

Perhaps the crux is right here; Pawlenty seems to have aversion-trained the DFL:

“Democrats have always known that a tax increase means a veto. As a result, there has been a grudging acceptance among Democrats that any package negotiated with the governor will not include tax increases,” Nelson said.

And this put the last piece into the (possibly completely-spurious) puzzle.  Maybe it’s just me, of course – but over the course of the past few weeks, it feels as if the Minnesota DFL has run out of gas.  They seem tired, like a boxer that’s gone a few rounds too many – as, in the legislature, they have, squandering four straight legislatures of prohibitive majorities but getting turned back by Governor Pawlenty at every juncture.

And if you’re a DFLer, after having beaten your head against a wall for four different sessions, culminating in agreeing to spending cuts that the Minnesota Supreme Court had just sent back from unallotment – snatchign political defeat from the jaws of a dubious legal victory – what do you have to look forward to?

A summer duking it out in a primary between a failed Speaker of the House, a former Senator that’s a laughingstock of the entire nation, and a former State senator who’s a pariah in his own party (not to mention Tom Horner who, ostensible former affiliations aside, is a moderate Democrat in policy terms, and who will draw away many, many more DFL than GOP votes). 

And when you pick from among those three deeply-uninspiring choices, you’ll stepping out into a hurricane; a GOP candidate not only at the head of an energized party out for four years of payback, but well-sited to bring in a huge chunk of the “Tea Party” vote.

It’s showing in a lot of ways; the DFL is skulking quietly away from the debris of the budget session tossing a few pro forma “Cold Omahas” and “we deserve betters” around; their big response to the Emmer campaign so far is to chant that he’s an extremist and to avoid any actual discussion comparing policy like a vampire avoiding sunlight.

Politics is cyclical; being a Democrat today must feel a bit like being a Republican (as distinct from a conservative) in, say, 2006; out of energy, out of ideas, needing a huge intellectual jumpstart.  Oh, they’ll pull something together for the campaign, but you can practically feel the fatigue.

 It won’t last forever, of course.

Not that we can’t try.

26 thoughts on “Just A Hunch

  1. “And if you’re a DFLer, after having beaten your head against a wall for four different sessions, culminating in agreeing to spending cuts that the Minnesota Supreme Court had just sent back from unallotment – snatchign political defeat from the jaws of a dubious legal victory – what do you have to look forward to?”

    A democratic governor that will work with Minnesota and not against it.

    Pawlenty wasn’t bluffing. I suspect he gladly would have let the government grind to a halt before he would risk his bid for presidency. The DFL showed that they value compromise over brinksmanship.

  2. being a Democrat today must feel a bit like being a Republican (as distinct from a conservative) in, say, 2006; out of energy, out of ideas, needing a huge intellectual jumpstart.

    The DFL (and Democrats generally) have been out of ideas for a lot longer than this year, Mitch. Hell, what was their crowning achievement? The artist formerly known as Obamacare*, which was on Harry Truman’s wish list. And who carried the Democrats over the finish line? A bunch of septuagenarian legislators who look like fugitives from Madame Tussaud’s.

    The only thing that Democrats have had going for them in recent years is the fecklessness of their opposition.

    *Apparently we’ve been warned off using this term, so we’ll have to call it something else; perhaps the Government Program That Dare Not Speak Its Name, or maybe Voldemortcare or something like that.

  3. “a failed Speaker of the House, a former Senator that’s a laughingstock of the entire nation, and a former State senator who’s a pariah in his own party ”

    The DFL version of the Three Stooges but without the humor; just the slapstick.

  4. Nice of ayebee to stop by and empty his pant-load.

    He’s got to be asses over elbows over at his blog, trying to keep up with the legions of scary smart, reality based commentators his keenly intellectual observations attract.

  5. apathyboy said:

    “A democratic governor that will work with Minnesota and not against it.”

    Where “work with Minnesota” is defined as “blowing through most of Minnesota’s cash”, sure.

  6. A democratic governor that will work with Minnesota and not against it.

    What Troy said, and good luck with that.

    Pawlenty wasn’t bluffing. I suspect he gladly would have let the government grind to a halt before he would risk his bid for presidency.

    And he wouldh have done it if he were not a presidential contender, too. And it would have been a good thing.

    The worst thing about the last state government “shutdown” was that it ended.

    The DFL showed that they value compromise over brinksmanship.

    Where the compromise just happened to equal “complete defeat on all their initiatives, despite a prohibitive majority”.

    Sorry, AB. That is not pate on that sandwich.

  7. I heard an Al Franken ad yesterday (radio). He must be using some of his Hollywood-raised cash for advertising. I think the announcer lady mentioned Big-Oil. But no mention of George Bush or Haliburton, so I only give it a C.

  8. The worst thing about the last state government “shutdown” was that it ended.
    That and all of those “non-essential personnel” got to back to work.

  9. AB, it’s lucky you’re not one to stand on your pointy head — spinning that fast would send you deep into the mantle in seconds. Wait, perhaps you’ve got a new career ahead in the Brakken fields of North Dakota!

    Surely even the spendthrifts in the DFL could see that raising taxes in a time of deep economic malaise with an election upcoming was not a winning idea. That doesn’t mean I don’t expect a special session to raise taxes next spring if a DFLer wins the governorship.

  10. “Where the compromise just happened to equal “complete defeat on all their initiatives, despite a prohibitive majority”. ”

    So if Obamacare* would have failed, you would have taken the opportunity to chide the Democratic party for their ineptitude. Whereas since they succeeded, you chided their completely failure to compromise for the good of the country.

    But in Pawlenty’s case, you hail his complete refusal to compromise whereas if he would have given in you would have blasted the DFL as being brash and unfair.

    *It’s cool, I’m a liberal.

  11. Actually, the DFL did the best they could do right now to promote Big Government.

    Why? Magnuson, who providing the wrinning vote and wrote the opinion overturning unallotment, just announced his resignation. Pawlenty elevated Gildea and appointed Stras to the Court. Stras wrote an amicus supporting Pawlenty.

    Given all that, care to guess which way the next unallotment case to come before the Court would go? And why the DFL had to fold until they get a chance to change the makeup of the Court?

  12. The crap sandwich that is Obamacare* is a success? By what metric?

    *It’s cool, I’m a fiscal conservative.

  13. So if Obamacare* would have failed, you would have taken the opportunity to chide the Democratic party for their ineptitude.

    Whilst controlling the White House, the House, and veto-proof in the Senate? Most likely!

    Whereas since they succeeded, you chided their completely failure to compromise for the good of the country.

    Where did I say any such thing? Sorry, AB – perhaps writing at Penigma isn’t the best thing for you; you’re starting to make things up as you go.

    I’m not of the opinion that one expects ones political opponents to do ones’ work for you. The GOP lost the ’06 and ’08 elections; we weren’t going to make any headway asking for compromise, and we could expect none with the Dems in control (since for all their mewling on the subject, they only do it when they have no choice).

    I can only hope the GOP remembers that when we get control back.

    But in Pawlenty’s case, you hail his complete refusal to compromise whereas if he would have given in you would have blasted the DFL as being brash and unfair.

    Don’t quit your day job. You’ll never make it as a mind-reader.

  14. Why? Magnuson, who providing the wrinning vote and wrote the opinion overturning unallotment, just announced his resignation. Pawlenty elevated Gildea and appointed Stras to the Court. Stras wrote an amicus supporting Pawlenty.

    I wonder to what extent this will be an issue in this fall’s judicial elections as two of the judges who voted with the majority are up for reelection. I know that judicial races are rarely a hot issue in Minnesota but it would be nice if some of the momentum from Congressional, Legislative and State Constitutional office races would help buoy a few challengers on the judicial front.

  15. The crap sandwich that is Obamacare* is a success? By what metric?

    It’s a “success” in that Democrats were able to pass it with supermajorities in both Houses and a Democratic president who wanted this as his signature achievement. On the merits of the legislation, not so much.

  16. “Where did I say any such thing?”

    I read on a conservative blog somewhere during the health care reform issue that the Democrats refused to listen to the Republicans legitimate concerns and used back-room deals to hammer their bill through. I guess that must have been someone else’s blog, or maybe it was Roosh. My apologies.

  17. “The crap sandwich that is Obamacare* is a success? By what metric?”

    I meant success only in that it was signed into law. Its true effects remain to be seen.

    *wouldn’t Pelosicare be more appropriate?

  18. I read on a conservative blog somewhere during the health care reform issue that the Democrats refused to listen to the Republicans legitimate concerns and used back-room deals to hammer their bill through..

    Simple statements of fact about Obamacare*, a stupid piece of legislation passed by very Chicago-y means. Not demands for compromise (much less the DFL/Media’s mewling about it), as smart and less-complete-ruin-bound as that might be.

    * I’m a taxpaying American, so go eat rocks if you don’t like the term.

  19. I meant success only in that it was signed into law
    Yeah and there have been so many successes in this administration. Gitmo closed. Tarp a screaming success. Government Motors is roaring. Unemployment at 10%.
    I can’t wait for Cass Sunstein to regulate the Internet.

  20. Pingback: Tweets that mention Shot in the Dark » Blog Archive » Just A Hunch -- Topsy.com

  21. Government Motors is roaring.
    Government Motors is now saying they can’t sell cars because — I kid you not — they can’t finance poor credit risk buyers. You can see where this is going to go, can’t you, Kermit?

  22. ^^^ Irony at its best. That would be like Freddie or Fannie saying they can’t loan out money to people because they have horrible or no credit. Wait a minute…

  23. I meant success only in that it was signed into law. Its true effects remain to be seen.

    Hmmm,

    1) History. Name a health care bill that actually cost less than forecast 5 years down the road.
    2) The bill is 2700 pages. It requires 60+ more agencies and how many more thousands of civil servants to implement?
    3) Businesses will be issuing millions more 1099s next year, resulting in how much more paperwork for both the government and business?
    4) Already Waxman knows many large businesses like CAT are seriously considering dropping their plans and shoving their workers and retirees on the government because of the cost structures in the bill, something that “wasn’t expected.” Yeah, right, it wasn’t expected by the rocket scientists who wrote this bill, but it was by every cynic in the country.

    Given all that, do you really have any hope that the bill will contain costs and provide better care? Anything that requires 10s of thousands of civil servants can never be run efficiently, smoothly, rapidly, or at low cost.

    AB, this is one more example of feel-good liberalism. The bill had noble goals, but having noble goals doesn’t make the law the right thing to do.

  24. 1) History. Name a health care bill that actually cost less than forecast 5 years down the road.

    1) History. Name any government program that actually cost less than forecast 5 years down the road.

    (see: Social Security, Medicare, Hiawatha light rail, among others)

    FTFY!

  25. AB, this is one more example of feel-good liberalism. The bill had noble goals, but having noble goals doesn’t make the law the right thing to do.

    Those noble goals were merely a distraction for the forced implementation of socialized medicine. “Here’s the shiny!” while the boot comes crashing down on your neck.

  26. Bill, how about the Chrysler bailout? That actually made the government $660 million in 3 years. It’s rare that government programs cost less than expected, but TARP may be another if it’s not hijacked and turned into a slush fund as Obama desires.

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