It’s Quiet
By Mitch Berg
A week after a massive, potentially catastrophic hurricane, and the media is fairly quiet about things.
It’s because while it was a disaster, they haven’t been able to pin anything on Ron DeSantis.
They’ve tried. Oh, Lord, they’ve tried.
But the attacks have bounced off like lawn darts off an M1 Abrams. Even the complete fabrications squibbed:
So come on, Dems. If you think you’re gonna convict Trump of something, do it, so DeSantis can sweep unopposed to the nom in 2024.
October 7th, 2022 at 7:07 am
I think something key here is that younger Republicans are less likely to react with the usual “aw-shucks” or “Heyy, that’s not fair” of their elders. They hit back. On Twitter. Sometimes they’re even mean.
Might be a lesson there.
October 7th, 2022 at 7:24 am
I don’t believe that there is anything the Dems (or Rs) can do to stop Trump from running if he chooses to do so. He can run from inside prison if he wants to.
All the laws passed by congress to define who may and may not run for prez run afoul of separation of powers, congress is not allowed to define the office of the presidency.
October 7th, 2022 at 7:36 am
95% of those sitting in NYC are disgusting, filthy bottom feeders.
Many do not know this.
October 7th, 2022 at 7:39 am
UMMP, nature presented drumpf with a golden opportunity. His home state got wacked hard. He could have rallied his troops and showed up personally to direct volunteer efforts. He could have bought a fleet of boats to ferry people and equipment. He could have set up aid stations.
Evidently, his toenails needed trimming.
October 7th, 2022 at 8:01 am
Blade brings up a valid point. Trump missed a golden opportunity to stick it to the lying DemoCommies, but on the other hand, De Santis had things so well in hand, he may have thought anything that he did, would appear that he was trying to upstage Ron. You know damn well that the propaganda machine would have made that chanting point out of that action.
October 7th, 2022 at 8:17 am
BH, he could have used some of his wealth to provide material assistance. He could have coordinated his efforts through Desantis and tag teamed the reprobates.
He didn’t do shit.
October 7th, 2022 at 8:34 am
At some point that public insurance needs to be reassessed as it leads to investment in unsuitable areas, with investors protected from the unreasonable risks they are taking. But that money should come with strings so that we don’t have to pay out again and again and again.
I’ve visited there and the barrier islands and areas within a few hundred feet of the coast are barely above sea level. Total destruction as expected. It’s not that scientists haven’t warned us, but Republicans in those states don’t want to listen, as do many of their voters. They want to live along the coast and expect others to pick up the tab.
Pay those people for the land and if they have insurance for the house, they can collect that. Rebuild the original mangrove forests that are the best protection against wind and storm surges. Will it happen — course not. Florida deliberately has no state income tax to lure in people to live there. The state depends on property and sales taxes which are now diminished. They get away with it since they know the Feds = mostly blue state, will bail them out. Over and over again.
I am all for solidarity since we are one nation. But solidarity has to come with common sense and common sense tells us not to rebuild many of these areas or build more homes on coasts not already built up. The party is over and Florida has to find a new business model away from endless housing growth and property tax collections. In the past two years alone, more than two million people bought homes in Florida, most along the coasts. Do they read the news? I guess not. Florida is ground zero in global warming. I do hope the insurance companies will force a change now. But then I read that there is a law in Florida that compels every policy holder, even those who live away from the coast or who rent but own a car, will have an assessment on their policies to pay for damages that bankrupt insurance companies cannot pay. While not every coastal dweller is rich, most are at least quite wealthy. The poor subsidize the ones who insist on living along the coast and enjoy the view. That surcharge could be 40% next year.
My solidarity has limits if it just finances insanity and perpetuates a business model that is not sustainable in the future.
October 7th, 2022 at 8:44 am
👆🏻 #DeadManWalking blow it out your ass
October 7th, 2022 at 9:30 am
He didn’t do shit
It’s true. From Michael Flynn through the present. Big, big negative.
October 7th, 2022 at 9:38 am
She deleted that tweet.
Too bad, I’m sure it was followed by a wave of poorly spelled, spittle flecked invective and stupid memes from nitwits with “they/them” Uke flags, rainbows and blue waves in their profiles.
I’ve noticed that with reprobates and degenerates, the soft, noodle arm males tend to lean towards inane attempts at snark (whenever you see a comment start with “uuuum…” you know grade 3 snark is going to follow) and idiotic memes, while the thots jump in with the filth. The first time I ever encountered the new, filthy thing they love, “pegging”, it was a Twit thot mocking some old guy…sounds like she knew her way around it.
Role reversal goes deep in the holes these vermin inhabit.
October 7th, 2022 at 9:40 am
jdm, drumpf reminds me a lot of Jesse Ventura. If there’s not something in it for him, he’s not interested.
October 7th, 2022 at 9:53 am
threadjack removed.
Do I have to go back to doing this?
October 7th, 2022 at 10:05 am
I rarely criticize Trump because my criticisms of Trump are not the same as Democrat and #nevertrumper criticisms of Trump, and there is no way I want any person to even imagine that I am on Team Dem or Team #Nevertrumper.
If I say “Trump is a lying grifter” it is in the context of ALL of our presidents being lying grifters. You have to measure presidents only by their accomplishments, not on how well they adhere to bourgeoisie sentiments. It’s a value judgment.
October 7th, 2022 at 10:09 am
I don’t think it is as clear cut as BN put it. The optics of Trump inserting himself into DeSantis business would be twisted and politicized by MSM to umpteenth degree.
October 7th, 2022 at 10:11 am
The republicans deserve a kick, so that they can do some soul searching and start to drain the Trumpian swamp out of the party.
October 7th, 2022 at 10:12 am
The bar is so low for a successful presidency that Trump is among the best presidents of the last 60 years. As defined by policy and results – I did not say best nor was his administration without error – it’s handling of the Kung flu and Fauci, for example). This does not mean that his Ventura-esque qualities should be ignored.
October 7th, 2022 at 10:13 am
Blade, the Jesse Ventura comparison is why I voted third party in 2016.
If the Dems had played their cards fight, Schumer and Pelosi could have had Trump in their back pocket.
That first, wild press conference Trump gave after he was sworn in was a declaration of war, Trump was Johnny Cash at San Quentin, flipping the bird to the warden.
October 7th, 2022 at 10:16 am
jpa, Republicans are going to have to get over being intimidated by a herd of petulant 26-year old Oberlin graduates that make up the bulk of what passes for journalists. Trump should’ve coordinated with DeSantis and done something.
October 7th, 2022 at 10:17 am
If the Dems had played their cards fight,
I completely agree with this.
October 7th, 2022 at 10:39 am
Folks in Florida who think they have their homeowners policies with national insurers like State Farm or Allstate are mistaken. All of those type companies have recognized that the actuarial risks require extremely high premiums that the political system there may not be willing to provide. Accordingly they have ring fenced their Florida business into a separate subsidiary that can be put into bankruptcy without affecting the rest of their business.
The State runs a reinsurance fund. But this fund is by any objective measures insolvent. The big catastrophe modelling firms produce “special” versions of their models to make the fund appear solvent. It’ll be interesting to see how the Governor spins this one.
October 7th, 2022 at 10:45 am
That first, wild press conference Trump gave after he was sworn in was a declaration of war, Trump was Johnny Cash at San Quentin, flipping the bird to the warden.
Yes, it was. And I’m ngl; I loved that.
What Trump didn’t get though, is that in DC (or any government bureaucracy), the inmates are in cahoots with the warden (congress). It’s all 1 big, stinking scam that *everyone* is bound to protect out of self preservation.
He focused on the low hanging fruit, while the deeply embedded reprobates that actually make stuff happen were stabbing him in the back the minute he was sworn in.
The Senate knifed Caesar on the Ides of March, and finished the job in one attack. Trump was done in by the anonymous serfs serving grapes and wine sticking him with needles over a period of 4 years.
October 7th, 2022 at 10:48 am
#DeadManWalking is repeating the current talking point being spread by panicked reprobates on TwitR, verbatim.
#BlowItOutYourAss
October 7th, 2022 at 11:22 am
I applaud DeSantis when he is portrayed as public enemy #1 by the dems and the press. That will make it harder for DeSantis to be captured by the elites if he runs and wins in 2024.
October 7th, 2022 at 11:23 am
^^ In fairness he couldn’t stop a hurricane..
October 7th, 2022 at 11:23 am
^ UMMP, he’s even more Hitler-y than Trump!
October 7th, 2022 at 11:28 am
Prioritizing political stunts, book banning and owning the libs rather than addressing real issues. DeSantis culture wars do nothing to help Floridians.
October 7th, 2022 at 11:36 am
Just listened to Jordan Peterson’s interview with Brit politician Alex Story. Story is the real deal, he has the accent of an Oxford don, but he fights like a bar brawler. Too bad he is not an American.
October 7th, 2022 at 11:55 am
Flood insurance undermines moral hazard everywhere including along the mississippi in new orleans and florida but it’s federal so don’t blame desantis blame democrats in congress who continually renew the program for the benefit of the poor black folks who live in those areas if republicans ever tried to cut the program democrats would pounce on them screaming racisssss and we all know it
pretending there’s something fishy about florida’s insurance plan is the pot calling the kettle black every government insurance program is bankrupt including obamacare aocial security and every public employees pension plan and they are all subsidized by you guessed it democrats
The reason people move to florida has nothing to do with insurance rates, little to do with income tax, mostly to do with progressive policies in states like Mmnnesota where our governor explicitly told us that if we didn’t like what was happening, we should move out okay see you later.
October 7th, 2022 at 12:14 pm
Years ago Swiss banks stopped funding the construction of Ski-resorts below a certain altitude (~1’500 m) on the grounds that, due to global warming, these hotels would soon be out of business for lack of snow.
Similarly, years ago house insurance companies pulled out of Florida on the grounds that the hurricane/flooding risk is getting worse every year. A rather less known climate expert, Jeb Bush, stepped in by claiming this is not true, and in any case the state of Florida would provide insurance if private insurers pulled out.
Here we go again: even “the market” reckons that global warming is here to stay and grow – but the self-claimed marketeers, for once, claim the market (insurance companies and property developers) are all wrong, and hence they use tax payers money to pay for the damage, i.e. to keep their voters happy.
FWIW: The Swiss government did not step in to replace private funding of ski-resorts. Like the private banks the Swiss government believes in facts and science.
October 7th, 2022 at 12:16 pm
Remember, Bigman:
“Blow it out your ass” is now the official SiTD response to #DeadManWalking
October 7th, 2022 at 12:20 pm
Besides, if you want to debate the nitwits that actually came up with that sob fest, you’ll find them sporting blue checks on TwitR.
#DeadrATCrawling never gave it any thought, and doesn’t even understand the argument. He’s just regurgitating.
October 7th, 2022 at 12:22 pm
“Following Hurricane Ian’s destruction, many residents on Florida’s Pine Island have stayed put for days without electricity and the resources while hoping the lone bridge to the mainland is repaired.”
AP tweet after bridge was restored. These are the vermin low IQ voters are trusting with information.
October 7th, 2022 at 12:33 pm
Miami has been having salt water infiltration issues for years into its groundwater aquifers. Also why there are many more sinkholes in Florida.
Theoretically, climate change does not cause insurance to fail. It is a negative imbalance between premiums, and pay outs. Stricter zoning laws might help, but for insurers to stay solvent, they most likely need to increase rates.
Since rates are already very high, that is the real issue. The cost of insurance looks like it is exceeding what people can, or are willing to pay.
The federal flood insurance has strings attached, and is extremely expensive. If the state level insurance is poorly run, that is a direct reflection of a poorly run state system.
Regardless of what anyone thinks about climate change, at the end of the day, in insurance business—the numbers have to add up.
October 7th, 2022 at 12:39 pm
Like the private banks the Swiss government believes in facts and science
Funny thing about that humunguous Swiss bank in serious trouble for lending poorly.
October 7th, 2022 at 1:01 pm
^^ I follow Credit Suisse and have tried to study the situation.
It’s exceedingly complex. Im guessing no one knows, including its (new) chair and ceo, how much capital CS really needs due to the breadth and depth of contingencies and moving parts. Securitized loans, structured products, legal claims, legacy positions taken on to win mandates for dodgy positions, derivatives etc.. All of which go from water to ice if markets are motivated by solvency and fear (now) rather than greed and opportunity (before).
13% looks nice on a spreadsheet but can easily morph to 8, 5, even 0% if the stars line up.
And then there are the headwinds from operations. IB revenues have dried up. Wealth management has declined ratably with markets. FX alone means assets under management have declined an additional 10% due to strength of Swiss franc, in addition to bonds and equities in client portfolios being down 20-40%. The best talent and best clients are leaving (wouldn’t you) etc etc.
Markets will likely force a capital raise at punishing terms, and this explains price action. Time for existing shareholders such as Qatar, Olayan et al to get their comeuppance for decades of acquiescence and complicity. The media criticizes management and board for its incompetence, and egregious behavior.
But what about owners? Are they not ultimately responsible as well if they are tolerant and submissive to the board through decades of malfeasance, irregularities, and wealth extraction? Do they not deserve to be spanked? Have you ever read an article from the WSJ on this topic ?
Why not interview QIA and ask them a few questions?
Did they sell their allegiance to incompetent and corrupt CS management by investing in convertible notes at 10% in Swiss francs (vs negative rate T Bills) for years in exchange for their complicity? Is it just a coincidence that each time thembonds got close to converting into equity due to minimum capital requirements, CS management chose to dilute normal shareholders instead? Why did they not side with the Norwegian Oil Fund, Harris et al to cleanse the board and oust Urs Rohner, who may go down in history as one of Switzerlands most lethal weapons of mass wealth destruction.
October 7th, 2022 at 1:24 pm
It’s always fun when JDM comments on the strength of someone else’s balance sheet.
October 7th, 2022 at 1:28 pm
👆 Blow it out your ass #DeadrATcrawling
October 7th, 2022 at 2:22 pm
^^ What is the correct number of abortions for which a pro-life candidate should pay?
Asking for my evangelical friends.
October 7th, 2022 at 2:44 pm
Yes, it’s important for some to shout “squirrel” when DeSantis seems to have done a great job coordinating rescue and recovery. I’m hoping he runs in 2024.
October 7th, 2022 at 3:11 pm
^^ DeSantis seems like a strong candidate.
Unlike many Northern Governors, DeSantis kept businesses open ( in part because Florida is a relatively warm state). Florida reopened much earlier than anywhere else and is an example of how unnecessary lockdowns in other states were. For many — that alone is reason enough for DeSantis to be president.
October 7th, 2022 at 3:38 pm
It’s always fun when JDM comments on the strength of someone else’s balance sheet
I am impressed and appreciate the time it must’ve taken to copy and paste all that commentary about Credit Suisse. While not quite the same as actually understanding what you plagiarized, it was nonetheless a feat in your own limited way. Thanks for the update!
October 7th, 2022 at 4:32 pm
All land whose value is based on some derivative of local or global climate would be better leased than bought. That ocean front estate on Florida’s Atlantic coast might be underwater in a decade or two — or it may be a mile inland. Coastal land is dynamic, the shore line is in a constant state of flux, global warming or no global warming.
I don’t know why people think that what happens to land on a sea coast is some kind of long term climate indicator. There are a lot of ancient coastal structures that were built long before the industrial revolution that are now underwater or are now a long way from the water. Actual measured sea level rise in the last century is about a half inch. You don’t need anthropogenic global warming to explain that.
If you were to ask college graduates to tell you how much sea level has risen in the last hundred years, what do you think that they would tell you? A foot? Two feet? Ten feet?
October 7th, 2022 at 8:24 pm
Florida Insurance payouts have not risen because of hurricanes caused by climate change there is no evidence the frequency or severity is increasing what has changed is the number of people filing claims and the nature of the claims instead of a few florida crackers living in modest stucco houses filing cheap claims insurance companies are seeing many wealthy snow birds living in seafront mansions filing exorbitant claims and many more retirees living in mobile homes filing total loss claims because the odds finally caught up to them none of this is desantis fault complaining the actuaries undercharged premiums is like complaining the legislature undercharged taxes to fund public employee pensions or obamacare or social security no politician ever charges enough because they don’t want to piss off the taxpayers and those decisions are made by legislatures controlled by democrats so again you can’t blame it on desantis I’m beginning to think blade is right you have no substantive response you’re just full of hot air so blow it out your ass
October 8th, 2022 at 6:08 am
Let me think for a minute . . .
The elites told us that the USSR would be around forever.
The elites were wrong.
After the fall of the USSR, the elites told us that the best way to create liberal democracy in Russia was to privatize its state industries.
The elites were wrong.
The elites told us that opening up trade with China would liberalize China.
The elites were wrong.
The elites told us that covid victims would overwhelm hospitals and clinics if we didn’t lock down.
The elites were wrong.
The elites told us that the covid vaccine would keep us from getting covid.
The elites were wrong.
The elites are now telling us that we must become poor to prevent global warming
. . .
At this point they don’t even believe their own bullshit. The agenda of the elites has never been about reason, or justice, or science. It has only ever been about power.
October 8th, 2022 at 8:15 am
Being wrong, UMMP, is key. You might find this quote from Theodore Dalrymple to be of interest:
Political correctness [Their stupid BS] is communist propaganda writ small. In my study of communist societies, I came to the conclusion that the purpose of communist propaganda was not to persuade or convince, not to inform, but to humiliate; and therefore, the less it corresponded to reality the better. When people are forced to remain silent when they are being told the most obvious lies, or even worse when they are forced to repeat the lies themselves, they lose once and for all their sense of probity. To assent to obvious lies is in some small way to become evil oneself. One’s standing to resist anything is thus eroded, and even destroyed. A society of emasculated liars is easy to control. I think if you examine political correctness, it has the same effect and is intended to.
October 8th, 2022 at 9:49 am
The insurance industry is watching the situation carefully. As is the mortgage market. Capital is the biggest coward and will leave quickly if losses are on the horizon. The financial industry is not beholden to voters. Without insurance and mortgages, the coastal real estate market in Florida and other vulnerable areas will cease to exist. Once that happens, existing properties will be sold at a discount and the run to the exits will begin. Politicians will postpone the inconvenient truth for as long as denying the obvious brings in the votes. But insurance is a long term business and they won’t wait for the obvious to happen. Right now, the very smart money leaves already and sells to irrational optimists. The more people leave, the lower the property tax take and the harder it will be to finance all the projects to hold back the sea. This is called marking to reality.
However, the climate change deniers won’t give up so easily. They will continue to deny climate change as the water rises. They will petition the federal government for infrastructure money to build the walls and pump systems that will hold off this “imaginary” threat. Here’s hoping they have to shoulder this cost with their own money.
October 8th, 2022 at 10:09 am
jdm: Sometimes you get lucky, I bought a few CS shares last week on the basis that they would not be allowed to fail and I am now 9% up. For me this is a slow investment and a long term hold.
By the end or June 2022 CS had a liquidity ratio of almost 200%. It is the highest among all the globally systemically important banks. CS has consistently maintained a high LCR since 2016 at least, above 180%. They have no liquidity issue. And yes, capital ratios are also perfectly in line with peers. CET1 at 13.5% per half-year end. Of course the restructuring will cost money, but will also reduce risk-weighted assets. So do not expect the capital ratios to deteriorate significantly. The bank’s main problem are its many scandals, eroding trust, and the uncertainty until they lift the veil on the new strategy on 27 October. That opens doors to speculation and rumors. But fundamentals are fine. Yet, the bank has a long way to go.
October 8th, 2022 at 10:55 am
Pretty much everything the left thought would result from Trump’s election has come to pass as a result of Biden’s policies. Disastrous defeat in Afghanistan, land war in Europe, the president himself warning of WW3, record inflation, stock market collapse, armed FBI agents kicking in the doors of the president’s political enemies.
None of it happened under Trump, it only happened after Slow Joe Biden — the presidential choice of America’s ruling class — took office.
Biden got 67% of the votes of people with graduate degrees, and 56% of the college grad vote.