The bad news: a little of the luster has faded from “Nate Silver predicts…”.
But just a little.
As of Wednesday afternoon, elections forecaster Nate Silver’s site FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a better chance of reaching 54 seats or more than he gives to Democrats for taking over the majority.
Specifically, as of this writing, the site’s “classic model” gives Republicans a 20.3 percent chance of reaching at least 54 seats, which compares with an 18.4 percent chance of Democrats taking over control of the Senate.
While holding the Senate was always likely, increasing the majority in a midterm – with an “unpopular” president, to boot – would be pretty unusual. The fact that it’s crept into the conversation lately is not something I expected.