16 Years
By Mitch Berg
2006.
That’s how long it’s been since I’ve seen a poll – any poll generally considered reputable – that showed a GOP statewide candidate, a Governor, Attorney General, Auditor or Secretary of State – ahead in a race before an election.
We’ll come back to that.
A few weeks back, my NARN colleague Jack Tomczak and I were invited to speak at a Liberty Tea Party Patriots meeting. The invite came right after the Survey USA poll, right after the State Fair, that showed Scott Jensen down by 18 points. It was a dismal couple of weeks to be a Republican. The organizers wanted someone to help put the poll in context. Jack lives and breathes that stuff, and I have done a little dabbling on the subject as well.
In the intervening weeks between the SUSA poll and a Trafalgar poll that showed the governor’s race at five points, things got a little brighter – a poll with a history of measuring Republican turnout adequately accurately showed us losing a little less badly than Jeff Johnson in 2018.
So when the meeting came around, Jack pretty much had the line of the evening. I’ll paraphrase it: if you’re looking for a poll that shows Jensen leading? There is none. The only way to fix that is to get out there and work like hell to change that by election day.
And he was right.
And he still is.
The good news: another Alphanews Trafalgar Poll shows Jensen ahead by half a point.
The bad news: An Alphanews Trafalgar Poll shows Jensen ahead by half a point.
I’ll explain.
Special Sauce: It’s a Trafalgar Poll, sponsored by a right-leaning news organization. A DFLer might squawk “Hah! It’s a conservative-leaning poll sponsored by a conservative propaganda mill! OF COURSE they show Jensen leading!”
Alphanews is indeed Minnesota’s main conservative-leaning daily news source. But dismissing Trafalgar because “it’s Republican” is just as intellectually dishonest as dismissing Survey USA or PPP or Quinnipiac because they’re Democratic. Are the facts presented right, or are they wrong? That’s the only question that matters.
Let’s focus on facts, not parties, for a moment.
Trafalgar was also pretty much the only poll that showed Trump with a shot at winning in 2016; they called the much better-than-expected showing for the GOP in Congress in 2020. The theory is that whatever methodological “special sauce” (to borrow David Brauer’s term) Trafalgar brings to the table that helps them to measure Republicans, who seem to be stubbornly undercounted by Survey USA and 538 and the like, might give this poll a little extra credibility.
Pollsters’ special sauce is a little like boy-band popularity; it comes and goes fast.
Remember John Zogby? He was the “It” boy of the 2000 race. Whatever his special sauce was, it hit the mark in the Bush/Gore race. But thet was a long time ago; By 2008, Zogby was background noise; he still does polling, but the results rarely seem to track observed reality. His special sauce hit its shelf date.
Rasmussen? They nailed 2004, and stayed relevant through most of the decade. They’re still out there – but nobody’s called him the best in the business in quite some time.
Nate Silver and 538? Quinnipiac? SUSA? Each of them went through a period as the “it” poll. And just as surely as New Edition handed off to Bell Biv Devote, to Boys 2 Men, and thence to New Kids on the Block, then Backstreet Boys and NSYNC to One Direction to BTS, every few cycles brings a new “it” pollster.
Trafalgar was “it” in ’16 and ’20. They didn’t get a lot of credit for it in the media, since Trafalgar brought them bad news of Republican strength.
Do they still have their special sauce?
We’ll know two weeks from Tuesday, I guess.
So what does the poll actually say?
Half a point.
But there are 3.9% worth of voters polling for four third-parties, all of them somewhere left of center: the remains of the “Independence” party, Jesse Ventura’s vanity organization, which was and remains moderate-libertarian left, the two legal weed parties (mostly libertarian left) and of course the Socialist Workers. Will the Democrats in those parties come “home” to the DFL to beat back the Red horde? DFLers tend to fall into line after they get their rebellions streaks out of the way.
And there are another 3.9% undecided. Toward whom will they break?
Well, one hint comes further down in the poll:
Presuming, as always, that Trafalgar’s methodology is sound, Biden is not polling well in Minnesota. One suspects that in most cases it’s due to inflation, crime, fuel prices, stagflation and oncoming war.
But Minnesota being Minnesota, you have to figure some of the disapproval is from the left.
Still – it may point to a lack of enthusiasm among Democrat voters to turn out for Walz.
Undercards: All qualifications about special sauce aside? The other Constitutional Office races might prompt some optimism, if I were more susceptible to it:
Here’s the AG race:
A five point margin with 4.5% undecided?
If – as always – accurate, that might explain Ellison’s drive to slap a coat of “tough on crime” paint over his “Anti”-fa frenching past.
State Auditor?
The only candidate who was straight up leading in the September Trafalgar poll, added a point to his margin – with six points of Pot Party candidates, and nearly 10% still undecided. I’m a little less sanguine than the numbers might warrant; this is the lowest profile race of the bunch. All those undecideds – the ones that vote, anyway – will most likely follow the top of the ticket. The question is, who is the top of the ticket – Tim Walz, or Joe Biden?
Secretary of State: Kim Crockett is a good personal acquaintance. Say what you will about the campaign she’s run – the DFL has certainly put money into running against her.
And if Trafalgar’s right, there might be a reason for that:
All that money – millions and millions of dollars from Progressive plutocrats. Steve Simon is actually having to put money into TV ads of his own – something I don’t recall seeing in any systematic way, ever.
And this – presuming, as always, Trafalgar’s secret sauce is valid – is what they got for it. two points, with almost nine undecided. And those nine will likely break toward the top of the ticket, whoever that is.
And I don’t recall even seeing a Kim Crockett ad.
So – the good news: Presuming Trafalgar is right, there is hope.
The bad news: Presuming Trafalgar is right,, it’s a razor-thin margin, and the Governor and Constitutional Officer races are going to depend heavily on:
- Whether Progs “come home” to the DFL from the weed parties, and
- Which way “undecideds” break, and
- How much effect Bidens apparent unpopularity in Minnesota drags the DFL ticket, and overcomes any corruption that might exist in the metro.
Either way, Jack was right. If you care about Minnesota not collapsing further, and you’re not volunteering time or money for a candidate, statewide or legislative? What the hell are you waiting for?
October 21st, 2022 at 11:13 am
Vice president Kamala Harris is visiting Minnesota tomorrow to talk about abortion and Tim Walz fundraiser.
When is the last time Democrats had to send help to minnesota?
October 21st, 2022 at 11:29 am
Do we know Trafalgar methodology? Do they oversample libturds like every other poll? Are they actually able to sample hesitant/shy gopers who are absent from other poll numbers?
If Trafalgar special souce is good, then result iwill be close enough to cheat to secure a win, ie keep counting the votes until desired outcome is achieved. Not that there is no precedent for that in MN.
Big, I do not think Kackler is help, more of a nuisance and a hinderer. Maybe the strategy is to send her to MN so she will not cause damage elsewhere where it really matters.
October 21st, 2022 at 11:36 am
Based on a 1.99% rate with an odd methodology — I am sure Alpha News’ readers will be delighted with the results.
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/polling-methodology/
Admittedly I’m not a numbers person but 1.44% of 1091 respondents is 15 people. Right? 60% of whom are age 45+, 85% of whom are white. Looks like the GOP has this whole election in the bag 😉
October 21st, 2022 at 11:49 am
You can put “math” down as another topic Emery knows little about.
In Wisconsin, 538 has Michels within a half point of Evers. If Evers is in trouble, so is Walz.
October 21st, 2022 at 11:52 am
Another thing that screws up the polls is the folly known as “early voting.” An election poll is no longer a “snapshot in time,” it is frikkin’ full length movie, with intermission.
October 21st, 2022 at 12:15 pm
The poll that only surveys old white people.
A question I have been wondering — how much does the sponsor of a poll and its firm influence its outcome? Obviously the Freedom Club has an interest in a certain outcome for the election where other media outlets don’t. Seems like an opportunity for setting up their election fraud arguments.
October 21st, 2022 at 12:17 pm
There is no election fraud. Every election is the cleanest and most secure election ever. And if you don’t agree, you’re an election denier, just like a holocaust denier, a person whose opinions are too outrageous to be allowed expression.
October 21st, 2022 at 12:35 pm
Emery,
Since you’ve admitted math isn’t your thing, I should probably not bother asking you how, specifically, you think Trafalgar’s methodology is wrong in ways that’d skew the poll.
You say “old white people” – without contrasting that with competing polls, or showing how in a state where white people above 40 do tend to be the most reliable voting bloc that that’s a bug rather than a feature.
We’ll see in a couple weeks, I guess, presuming the Metro fraud machine doesn’t make the whole thing moot.
October 21st, 2022 at 12:45 pm
@MBerg Look at the cross tabs — poll states 45% of polled affiliate Democrats and 40% Republicans. I doubt independents are breaking that hard towards Jensen. This poll is an outlier and most likely questions were asked with sponsors and the necessary outcome needed.
Trafalgar put out a poll last cycle showing Biden up 3 in MN, and he won by 7.2.
October 21st, 2022 at 12:52 pm
Steve Simon even Trafalgar proof …
October 21st, 2022 at 1:11 pm
Woolly wrote: “In Wisconsin, 538 has Michels within a half point of Evers. If Evers is in trouble, so is Walz.”
538?? The same 538 who said Hillary Clinton was a lock with a 71.4% chance of winning in 2016??
Seriously Woolly — it’s as if you’re not even trying…
October 21st, 2022 at 2:37 pm
Yesterday, a draft to ban LGBT propaganda and pedophilia in the Russian Federation, including in the media, books, the Internet, advertising and cinema, was been submitted to the State Duma.
Get back to me when the GOP House members submit a resolution suggesting pedophilia MIGHT NOT not be wholesome.
Thanks, Patriots!
#MAGA
October 21st, 2022 at 2:37 pm
Brandon is releasing our last few drops of oil from the Strategic reserve. The Dow Jones is creeping back up, just in time for the election. And the polls are wrong, all of them, Democrats are going to sweep the election as they always do, and it will be the cleanest election ever.
Is it just me or does that smell of desperation?
October 21st, 2022 at 2:40 pm
Say rAT?
If I’m not mistaken, and I never am, you predicted memaw Clinton was gonna kick drumpf’s fat ass.
Explain yourself in three plagiarized quotes or less.
Thanks
October 21st, 2022 at 2:53 pm
Yesterday, Tucker Carlson just came out and said it: blacks are our enemy.
Within hours, the ADL’s Jonathan Greenblatt tweeted:
“Tucker Carlson has once again used his platform to stoke racial tensions, falsely and dangerously accusing a Black @MSNBC host of instigating a genocide against white people.
His incitement, and his trivialization of the Rawandan genocide must be forcefully condemned.”
One short of the rare Hat Trick!
🙌
October 21st, 2022 at 2:55 pm
Whenever my comment comes out of moderation, I invite a poll on what, or who’s name triggered the censor bot.
I cannot make this stuff up.
October 21st, 2022 at 3:57 pm
I’m gratified that the polls seem to indicate the GOP closing, but count me also skeptical of any polls, since they’ve gotten incredibly dicey in the past few years. Really, my take is that the GOP really needs to do a better job of explaining why what they want to do is right, the “three yards and a cloud of dust” kind of politics they have largely abandoned.
Side note; Swiftee is apparently unaware that pedophilia/sex with minors is a felony in all 50 states. So maybe Russia is starting to join the civilized world with this?
Side side note; the actual drain on the strategic petroleum reserve is about 40%. I agree that it reeks of desperation by Biden, and that it’s worrisome in a world where multiple major petroleum producers have gone or may go largely offline, but at least it’s not a 100% drain.
October 21st, 2022 at 4:13 pm
“Yet,” bike. It’s not completely drained “yet.”
Cold comfort.
October 21st, 2022 at 5:41 pm
More evidence of the density of Emery.
538’s last forecast of the 2018 Wisconsin governor’s race:
Evers 49.2%
Walker 47.5%
The actual results:
Evers 49.5%
Walker 48.4%
There are times when Emery seems to be commenting on SITD so he can be shown, over and over, that he is stupid person who has no more expertise on politics than a somewhat dim garden slug.
Emery on October 21, 2022 at 1:11 pm said:
Woolly wrote: “In Wisconsin, 538 has Michels within a half point of Evers. If Evers is in trouble, so is Walz.”
538?? The same 538 who said Hillary Clinton was a lock with a 71.4% chance of winning in 2016??
Seriously Woolly — it’s as if you’re not even trying…
October 21st, 2022 at 6:26 pm
It is pretty typical for midterms to flip Congress. The fact that there is only limited likelihood of that happening now is actually a condemnation of Republicans.
October 21st, 2022 at 6:48 pm
Moderation for using *words* Akismet needs a tuneup….
October 21st, 2022 at 7:45 pm
Emery actually brings up kind of an interesting point in his 12:15.
What value do political polls provide, and to whom? Who pays for these things and why do they pay for them?
There are publicly released polls that are meant to inform and perhaps persuade the voting on E-day.
And there are other polls, usually proprietary, that politicians and political parties use to determine how to allocate scarce resources.
In the Olden Days of a few years ago a real poll with real world results was called “election day.” These days we don’t have an election day, we have instead an election period that takes place across weeks or months depending on the state. This often results in people casting votes for candidates who cannot assume office, because, for instance, they are dead.
Dead as doornails. They are Kaput, they have run down the curtain and joined the choir invisible. Yet, because of the democracy promoting powers of early voting, you are now able to proudly exercise your franchise by boldly voting for people who can never take office.
October 21st, 2022 at 8:52 pm
^^ Since you’re such a fan of 538…
The updated forecast from 538 shows Tim_Walz is clearly favored to defeat Dr Scott Jensen. Election model simulations show Walz wins 91 of 100 times vs. Jensen.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/
Personally — I make no forecast and would favor the results of the poll on Election Day.
October 21st, 2022 at 11:08 pm
[…] Supervisor Shuts Down Reporter For Asking About Illegal Voter’s Arrest Shot In The Dark: Sixteen Years, also, Security The Political Hat: Pure Distilled Scum This Ain’t Hell: Tom Brady Likens […]
October 22nd, 2022 at 6:15 am
Well the inverse of “if Evers is in trouble, Walz is in trouble” is also true.
If abortion was a big + for the dems Evers should be pulling away. All the PP clinics in WI closed post Dobbs, pending a lawsuit by the State AG. Whatever happens with the lawsuit, unlike MN, abortion status in WI will be decided by the legislature & governor.
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:39 am
Look at Bikebubble go, Patriots! Defending library trannies, public school grooming, denying Epstein’s little black book exists and stepping up to bat for Pedo Joe’s handlers!
#MAGA, Bikebubble 👏
If there is any justice in the world, Zelensky will award you the Iron Cross with Swords and Oak leaves.
October 22nd, 2022 at 7:59 am
It costs $80 to fill our gas tanks, groceries cost $300 a week, our kids are dropping dead from heart attacks and Fentanyl overdoses, a million illiterate, 75 IQ Guatamexidorians have crossed into the US, the FBI is arresting people for praying in front of Planned Parenthood abattoirs, 500 men have been held in solitary confinement, without bail, for trespassing and parading without a permit, an avowed admirer of Communism heads the Joint Chiefs of Staff, a mentally ill, obese man wearing a dress is the Navy’s first female Admiral and Secretary of Health, China is threatening Taiwan, Russia is threatening to use nukes, degenerates are mutilating children’s genitals, a new, larger number will soon have to be coined to measure our national debt…
But FEAR NOT, Patriots! Mitch McConnell vows that if Republicans win control of the Senate, aid to Ukraine will be expedited.
“It is not enough for the Biden Administration to slowly, eventually get around to providing it.”
GOD BLESS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY
#MAGA
October 22nd, 2022 at 9:11 am
^^ I do what I can with my time and a good many of my evenings are, as you know, committed to entertaining your wife, who has grown only more relentless having so lately discovered the orgasm.
October 22nd, 2022 at 11:00 am
rAT Emery and Bikebubble are the Martin and Lewis of degeneracy, failure and ignorance.
How ya feelin’ rAT? Got any strange rashes? Heart palpitations? Better drop that kiddy porn mag and get that booster, boy.
October 22nd, 2022 at 11:31 am
It’s funny rAT thinks anyone believes he’d risk being beaten to death messing around with a Man’s wife.
Especially when his ER nurse daughter is laying there, splayed out like a ripe melon, begging for the D.
October 22nd, 2022 at 11:51 am
If Gretchen Whitmer doesn’t win by 15 points — I’ll be disappointed.
October 22nd, 2022 at 1:51 pm
Finished with your daughter already, rAT?
October 22nd, 2022 at 1:57 pm
It’s gotta be tough, looking at young Ms.rAT and trying to decide if those are want bumps or a reaction to the clot shot.
I feel sorry for you, rAT…..well, that was a lie….I think it’s hilarious.
October 22nd, 2022 at 2:05 pm
GOP’s Scott Jensen proposed ending Minnesota income tax. But how to pay for it?
https://www.startribune.com/gops-scott-jensen-proposed-ending-minnesota-income-tax-but-how-to-pay-for-it/600217829/
I guess Jensen will tell rural Minnesotans to pick themselves up by their bootstraps when he makes huge cuts to everything. My guess is Jensen hasn’t talked to stake holders. You know who the elimination of state individual income tax hurts most is the rural parts of the state..
October 22nd, 2022 at 2:09 pm
rAT’s daughter is a “nurse”…*snicker*
Was that your idea, rAT, or did she spring it on you for Father’s day?
tia, rAT!
October 22nd, 2022 at 2:26 pm
Back in the early aughts, there was a girl around the club we called Wendy O’ Wow.
Everyone loved Wendy, she was so much fun. First to show up for a club party, last to leave.
How old is “nurse”, rAT? Is her name Wendy?
October 22nd, 2022 at 3:50 pm
rAT? rAT???
Are you there, rAT?
October 22nd, 2022 at 4:21 pm
Oh…rAT scurried. 🤣
October 23rd, 2022 at 9:01 am
Uh, oh….
They’re noticing.
The Neocons and the Woke Left Are Joining Hands and Leading Us to Woke War III | Opinion
DAVID SACKS
October 23rd, 2022 at 9:05 am
RCP rates Michigan governor race a toss up: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/mi/michigan_governor_dixon_vs_whitmer-7545.html
October 23rd, 2022 at 10:37 am
It’s interesting to imagine how Minnesota Government would need to change if the individual income tax were eliminated. What could we no longer afford to do? And what it really be so bad if we couldn’t afford to do it?
No longer afford to give generous welfare to Chicago criminals hiding from the law? No longer afford to build trains that no one rides? No longer afford to pay for abortion on demand, sex change surgeries? No longer afford to take money from outstate to subsidize major cities through LGA?
Before you say roads and bridges, remember that’s paid for by the gas tax. Before you say fine arts, remember that’s paid for by the lottery. The income tax, what does that pay for that we would have to do without, but could not do without?
October 23rd, 2022 at 10:37 am
The UP of Michigan needs to secede. They’d elect Ted Nugent as President for life. Ted would declare war on lower Michigan and get this thing started.
October 23rd, 2022 at 10:39 am
Lifetime salaries for politicians that spend 2/years in office would have to go, Bigman.
Not gonna happen.
October 23rd, 2022 at 11:23 am
538: Whitmer is favored to win Michigan’s election for governor
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/governor/
/The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible./
Whitmer wins 88 in 100
Dixon wins 12 in 100
October 23rd, 2022 at 11:42 am
One of the stupid things about political polls is that they are an art. Every election is an experiment that cannot be repeated. Whatever the results in Michigan (or any other state, regardless of the ruling party) you can’t say that 538’s methodology was wrong. Or right.
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:00 pm
“Whatever the results in Michigan (or any other state, regardless of the ruling party) you can’t say that [RCP’s] methodology was wrong. Or right.”
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:12 pm
BREAKING!
Russia attacked a church in Ukraine with helicopter gunships, gas and tanks, killing 76 people, including 25 children…fucking monsters!!!!
Oh, wait. That was the FBI at Waco…never mind.
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:13 pm
Hey rAT? How’s your nurse doin’ today? 🤪
October 23rd, 2022 at 2:38 pm
Say Mitch? Isn’t Tomczak the guy who went to Prof. Creepy’s lab and office, and they told him they never see him?
As I recall, Creepy went apeshit.
Fucking leftist keyboard warriors are all cut from the same lace panties. I will give Creepy the acknowledgement that he didn’t hide behind an anon name. Rare among scumbags.
October 23rd, 2022 at 3:00 pm
Testimony of Randy Weaver.
“On August 21, 1992, Federal marshals shot my son Samuel in the back and killed him. He was running home to me. His last words were, “I’m coming, Dad.” They shot his little arm almost off and they killed him by shooting him in the back with a 9-millimeter submachine gun. The gun had a silencer on it. He was not wanted for any crime. He did not commit any crime. The marshals killed his dog right at his feet. He only tried to defend himself and his dog.
Sammy was just 14 years old. He did not yet weigh 80 pounds. He was not yet 5 feet tall. The marshals who killed Sammy were grown men. They were in combat gear. They had their faces painted with camouflage. They were wearing full camouflage suits with black ninja-type hoods. They were carrying machineguns and large caliber semiautomatic pistols. They were trained to kill. Two of them were hiding behind trees and rocks in the woods where they could not be seen. The third was around a bend in the trail in thick forest. They were under direct orders from Washington to do nothing to injure the children. They were to have no contact or confrontation with me or my family. They killed him anyway in violation of their orders.
On August 22, 1992, completely without warning of any kind, an FBI sniper shot and killed my wife, Vicki. He was using a .308 caliber sniper rifle with a specially weighted barrel and a 10-power scope. He was using match grade ammunition. He had years of training to kill. I heard him testify at the trial that he wanted to kill. He shot my wife in the head and killed her. She was not wanted for any crime. There were no warrants for her arrest. At the time she was gunned down, she was helpless. She was standing in the doorway of her home. She was holding the door open for me and Sara and for Kevin Harris. She was holding Elishe a our 10-month-old baby girl, in her arms. As the bullet crashed through her head, she slumped to her knees, holding Elisheba tightly so she would not drop her. We took the baby from her as she lay dead and bleeding on our kitchen floor.”
And today, they’re arresting men for praying in front of Planned Parenthood abattoirs. They’re kicking down doors of people who’s cell phones pinged in the Washington DC area on Jan 6. They’re sending SWAT teams to arrest 70/year old men. They’re rifling through the panty drawers of the former President of the USA.
But hey…let’s keep it in perspective. Ukraine supports homosexuals; they need our support, even if that means nuclear war.