Silent But Dea…Er, Unexpected
By Mitch Berg
Is another stealth “red wave” about to break?
Well, being a fundamental pessimist, I’d say “probably not” – but I’ve been wrong before, most noticeably two years about tomorrow.
But according to Rasmusson, there might just be something sneaking out of the fog.: I’m adding emphasis:
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 60% of Likely Democratic Voters say they are more likely to let others know how they intend to vote this year compared to previous congressional elections. This compares to 49% of Republicans and 40% of voters not affiliated with either major political party. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
In August 2016, 52% of Democrats were more likely to let others know how they intended to vote in the upcoming presidential election, compared to 46% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters. Some analysts before and after Donald Trump’s upset victory suggested that most pollsters missed his hidden support among voters fearful of criticism who were unwilling to say where they stood.
I can’t tell you the number of people who voted for Truimp who’d have never admitted it in public, fearing ostracism and reprisals.
Happening again?
We’ll know tomorrow.
November 5th, 2018 at 8:37 am
My immediate area is heavily Democrat; even historically Republican neighborhoods are overrun with lawn signs for Dem candidates. It’s making me pessimistic for our chances both locally and statewide, but if the voters who delivered Pennsylvania to Donald Trump in 2016 show up tomorrow, we stand a good chance of flipping a US Senate seat and the Governor’s mansion back to the Republicans.
November 5th, 2018 at 9:21 am
I have suspected this. Conservatives keep their opinions to themselves or to very small groups. I’ve been to several parties and gatherings where a Democrat is loud and proud with his views and assumes everyone agrees with him. His fellow Democrats smile and acknowledge his truths. The conservatives politely keep a straight face. Then later, when it’s just one of those quiet people and me we have a little chuckle thinking how surprised that Democrat will be when there aren’t 100 Democratic Senators and 435 Democratic Representatives announced on Wednesday morning.
November 5th, 2018 at 9:46 am
theres also this…
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/opinion-columns/wayne-allyn-root/commentary-another-shocking-gop-upset-is-coming-tuesday-1518884/
Good analysdis. I like the guy.
November 5th, 2018 at 10:17 am
Just out of curiosity, after reading DiP’s comment, what is the point of lawn signs? I don’t have much use for TV/radio/video ads, but at least they can be educational and/or humorous. For a while.
But lawn signs do what?
November 5th, 2018 at 10:40 am
I saw a great study showing that 22% of Americans trust CNN. But 28% trust gas station sushi.
I’ll wait till after the polls close on Tuesday to make my predictions.
November 5th, 2018 at 10:42 am
Lawn Signs transitioned from a period when not everyone had newspapers or electronic delivery systems to our current culture of Virtue Signaling. Now Lawn Signs are 24/7 Virtue Signaling.
November 5th, 2018 at 11:49 am
^^ DR;TJ, jesus fucking christ EI you are like the goddamn dog from Up. Except instead of squirrel its anything related to Trump, however vague.
November 5th, 2018 at 11:57 am
Pig is correct.
It seems to me that if you’re going to promote a candidate that way, you had better make sure your property is immaculate. Grass trimmed, no cracks in the pavement, windows in good shape, roof, garden, etc. Any perceived blemish will reflect poorly on your candidate.
November 5th, 2018 at 12:02 pm
Man, that’s some expensive virtue signalling.
And then some jerk comes by and takes or mutilates the sign.
November 5th, 2018 at 12:29 pm
Dave is correct on the yard maintenance thing. If one drives through East Bloomington and/or Richfield, there are a lot of houses with overgrown or unkempt yards, sporting the signs of DFL candidates. I’ve even seen some for Hakim Ellison.
November 5th, 2018 at 12:38 pm
Sorry, hit post too soon.
I meant to add that I know at least 20 people that will vote GOP, but would not say anything to anyone they don’t trust to keep it confidential. I used to keep quiet to avoid criticism from my wife’s side of the family. Although my kids are (sadly) liberals, they have told me that as long as we respectfully disagree, it’s all good. Now, I hit them with facts every time they tell a left wing lie.
November 5th, 2018 at 12:59 pm
The Left knows that killing the chicken will frighten the monkeys.
Persecuting a pizza parlor, a cake decorator, a Google employee, a Supreme Court nominee tells me they’d do the same to me if they took the whim. All it takes is one person on Twitter and a cowardly board of directors to ruin my career and destroy my life savings.
So no, I don’t tell anybody what I think. I quit all social media. I never answer polls. I smile and chuckle indulgently at SJW water-cooler jokes.
But I will vote tomorrow. Oh, yes. You can bet on that.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:07 pm
When Sayles-Belton (an egregiously bad Mpls Mayor) was running for re-election my landlord and I would steal her signs from neighboring blocks and stick them in the yard of the house on the block where all the drug dealing originated. Everyone on the block knew what the house was about – the yard looked like crap. Interestingly the drug dealers never took the signs down.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:29 pm
Pig Bodine – the free signs were just another entitlement.
November 5th, 2018 at 1:36 pm
I wonder how many people that are really GOP voters, put the signs of DFL candidates in their yards for deflection purposes? 😂
November 5th, 2018 at 1:43 pm
Drug dealers of the world Unite! Seriously though isnt that woman to the left of Sanders? Also what the hell happened to her?
November 5th, 2018 at 1:55 pm
Answering my own question. Found on wikipedia.
After leaving the mayor’s office, Sayles Belton became a senior fellow at the Roy Wilkins Center for Human Relations and Social Justice. The center is part of the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs.
Good god, not surprised in the slightest.
More recently, Sayles Belton worked in community affairs and community involvement for the GMAC Residential Finance Corporation, headquartered in Minneapolis. In 2010, she joined Thomson Reuters as vice president of Community Relations and Government Affairs, based in Eagan, Minnesota.
So she sits around all day and collects a paycheck for doing nothing. Just like when she was mayor except this probably pays better.
November 5th, 2018 at 2:13 pm
JD wrote: “But I will vote tomorrow. Oh, yes. You can bet on that.” Well played sir…
For choosing not to vote in a country in which people died trying to secure your right to vote is, in some sense, the very height of entitled privilege.
November 5th, 2018 at 2:29 pm
I say the right not to vote is just as important as the right to vote. Do you really want some idiot who cant name the 3 branches of government, or who their congressional representative is. I would say this much, if you dont fine its your choice. But you then have zero right to complain about anything that goes on in DC because you chose not to participate.
November 5th, 2018 at 2:44 pm
Many is the time that I have gone to vote, signed the book and left half the ballot unfilled. Abstention is as much my choice as a vote. But by getting the ballot, I have shown that I wasn’t lazy and forgot to vote, I just found no candidate acceptable.
November 5th, 2018 at 2:56 pm
I don’t know, Loren. You could always write in a candidate, like your dog. I have done that myself when there was either no acceptable candidates or just a Democrat listed, but, I repeat myself.
November 5th, 2018 at 4:23 pm
It all depends on turnout. Also, they way the undecideds break at the last minute.
November 5th, 2018 at 5:01 pm
What Emery doesn’t note, regarding his statistics about those who trust CNN vs. those who trust gas station sushi, is that all of those who trust CNN also trust gas station sushi. Including the kind made with pork grown in third world countries, affectionately called “sowshi” and “trichinosis roll”.
November 5th, 2018 at 5:29 pm
“If one drives through East Bloomington and/or Richfield, there are a lot of houses with overgrown or unkempt yards, sporting the signs of DFL candidates.”
That is wizard level virtue signaling, BH. Those slobs are crafting their yards to look like the shithole countries their undercover voters come from. Makes them feel at home.
November 6th, 2018 at 6:06 am
In a morbid sort of way, a part of me prefers for the GOP to keep both Congress and Senate. American voters need to experience viscerally the result of their little experiment. Losing Congress now would give Trump too easy a scapegoat.
November 6th, 2018 at 6:50 pm
The Senate is the more important to hold, of course, because we need it to confirm Trump’s next SCOTUS pick.
November 7th, 2018 at 9:41 am
The House is so close as it stands now that theres no way Pelosi will have the votes to become speaker.