Collateral Messaging

Joe Doakes from Como  Park emails:

If a conventional war breaks out, there won’t be enough targets in North Korea to go around.  The admirals know that but they sent a third carrier group anyway; therefore, the targets we are threatening are not in North Korea.

This move must be intended to send a signal to some other nearby nation.  Let’s think – who needs a reminder that war in Korea could boil over with disastrous consequences?  Who needs an incentive to step on a bug?

Joe Doakes

Most everyone?

26 thoughts on “Collateral Messaging

  1. The Trump administration did abandon leadership in Asia-Pacific — past tense — when it pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. That was a turning point that has turned. No amount of aircraft carriers can turn that around. The Trump administration should have thought before acting. Now its trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. Trump wrecks things, he doesn’t build things. 

    Fundamentally the Trump administration is embarking upon an overall failed strategy to try to re-position American influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The Trump administration is doubling down on extending its highly militarized foreign policy in the Greater Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region. In contrast, China is pursuing a multi-trillion dollar investment offensive over a long period of time to build infrastructure, trading relationships, and commercial investments across the region. Trump sent the secretary of defense when he should have sent the trade representative. Not knowing who your best emissary is remains characteristic of the Trump team. 

    The idea that a useful Indo-Pacific alliance can be constructed with India and Japan to contain China reveals Secretary of State Tillerson to be the wooden Indian that he is. Japan has extensive investments across the Far East and in China while India is probably way too smart to overly commit to the current combination of neoconservative and neofantasy policy that comprises the Tillerson policy mirage. The Tillerson policy reads like one of those outer edge policy articles in “Foreign Affairs.”

    And of course both Japan and India can watch how the US treats its neighbor Mexico on trade and commercial relationships to see just who Mr Unreliable is. And then glance over at all that professed commitment to NATO. By all means, sign me up for a Big Time Commitment with the Americans. Can’t wait, say the prime ministers. I’ll get a standing ovation in parliament!

    With China’s massive stock of US dollar-denominated foreign currency reserves, anytime China starts selling US Treasury bonds in New York will end US economic policy as we know it in a morning. 

    Geopolitical balances of power in Asia-Pacific have already changed. They’re not going back. 

  2. “With China’s massive stock of US dollar-denominated foreign currency reserves, anytime China starts selling US Treasury bonds in New York will end US economic policy as we know it in a morning.”

    Emery: ***When*** can this happen? They are burning reserves as we speak. YOU are the only one that wants Chinese Treasuries.

    China is a 50 guy fascist kleptocracy with demographic problems, a mega constipated banking system, and it is far from certain they can hold it together.

    I think the real thing to watch is they are trying to force the world to use their gold and oil futures contracts. Everyone is sick of the dollar hegemony (we would be wise to re-arm to the teeth to keep the dollar attractive BTW), but their isn’t much that can be doen about it.

  3. eTASS, tl;dr but this jumped out at me:

    And of course both Japan and India can watch how the US treats its neighbor Mexico on trade and commercial relationships to see just who Mr Unreliable is. And then glance over at all that professed commitment to NATO.

    I did not realize you had such animosity towards 0bumbler.

  4. IMO, they have to save their banking system by force. No one knows if they can pull it off.

    How does a Kleptocracy develop a bond market?

    I think Winston Churchill said it was a huge mistake for the West to not attack the USSR before it was formed. I think he was right. Decades of waste, not trade.

  5. The comparative advantages that China creates for itself center on increasing scale and the declining costs scale delivers. New cost-effective competitors in a rising economy like China tend to displace low-productivity goods producing businesses in advanced countries because the differential in advantage erodes. China has massive savings to drive investment to achieve scale. The international consequences of China’s external investments reinforce scale advantages. China through its massive foreign investment program is organizing across the Developing World to create new centers of competitive advantage that are going to stress Advanced Economy countries in the coming years. The One Belt, One Project initiative symbolizes this effect.

    In short, traditional manufacturing jobs are going to be lost in low-productive industries across the Midwest (and other places) because China is empowering new competitors in South Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

    If one wants to use a protectionist Wall Approach like Trump, that means every year you have to keep making the Wall higher and higher as the foreign competitors get mostly bigger and somewhat better. Not being able to meet the competition is never “winning” no matter how much chest thumping by the Trump administration.

    Trump offers simple-minded, single-factor responses to complex challenges that require multi-factor responses: improved skills and education, improved infrastructure, better capital equipment — and access to larger markets to increase scale economies.

    The US has been mis-allocating trillions of dollars to failing military interventions across the Muslim world for decades while China is now embarked on a program of massive commercial investment and expanded trade in the same region.

    The US is losing the future because of its failed foreign policy in the Muslim world and Africa and Latin America while China is proving the superiority of an investment-led commercial policy to expand its reach and influence.

    When Trump is gone, the US is still going to have the same failed foreign policy and the same massive mis-allocation of resources.

  6. jpa, the US had such a strategy — under Obama. It was called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This was more a geopolitical project than a trade agreement. But both Trump and Clinton were too obtuse to understand what it was all about.

  7. JD, I believe that the assets we’ve sent are meant as a deterrent to the threats from NK. A massive show of force., we’re not playing around with the little round guy. If the shooting starts we will destroy the military communications, infrastructure, supply lines. as well as their nuclear facilities. We’ll target their command and control to keep them from maintaining an attack on Seoul with their rocket and artillery placements. It will be difficult if not impossible for them to sustain a bombardment when they have little or no command structure to direct their front line troops, I think they’ll run like hell in short order (the Iraqis did twice). I have to wonder how long or the amount of effort it will take before what would be left of their command to eliminate their Dear Leader and sue for peace. It wouldn’t be pretty but given the force we have in theatre we’d surely rain utter and complete destruction on the DPRK.

    Emery can rant about trade deals and geopolitics all he wants but this is really a matter of defense of our country against a “Clear and Present Danger”!

  8. Regarding TPP, it’s worth noting that Obama wanted it approved without anyone as much as looking at what he’d negotiated. That’s always a warning sign to hear “just trust me”, and given the “success” of the Iran “deal”, I think you’ve got to give Trump credit for figuring out what any fifth grader could have; it was going to be a scam. There is a difference between meaningful interaction and giving the store away.

  9. TPP = unicorn dust and fairy crap to sell out US. Just the thing eTASS-BFL-SPM believes in. Why else would he bring it up? That was one smart and trustworthy deal from “After my election, I have more flexibility.” megalomaniac bent on destruction of the US. Great foreign policy 0bumbler had. Stellar! Care to bring up more examples of 0bumbler, and sHrillary foreign policy successes, eTASS-BFL-SPM? Bengazi? Arab Spring? Syria? Russia reset? Nork ascendance? Iran? Did I miss anything?

    NYC muslim terrorist was not stopped when somebody started chanting kumbaya, he was shot by a good guy with a gun. Your unicorn-inspired visions of solving everything with appeasement are delusional and infantile. Grow up for cripes sake. Not that you will, you do not have the intelligence to evolve beyond a troll and sock puppet master.

  10. “improved skills and education, improved infrastructure,”

    Choo Choos and sending coal miners to nigh school for coding.

    Who thinks our Rulers can make this happen?

  11. Scott, the WH says Trump will not visit DMZ on South Korea trip. Probably afraid that his bone spurs will act up.

  12. A good friend of mine served as a Army MP SRT assigned to the UNC Joint Security Area of the DMZ (this was back in the ’80’s). One of his primary jobs was to protect diplomats. He has told me that it was always extremely tense along the border. He asserts that it would be one of the last places on earth you’d want the leader of the free world to be, just too damn dangerous.

  13. Emery says Trump’s action are bad for the economy.
    The market says the Dow should be at 23,345 and consumer confidence is the highest it’s been since before 9/11.
    You gonna believe Emery or your lyin’ eyes.
    It’s not impossible to beat the market, but it is difficult. Wisdom of crowds and all that.

  14. Scott, Reagan and GW Bush have both visited the zone, as has Obama and Bill Clinton.

    White House says visit to border with communist neighbor is ‘cliché’
    When was Trump ever afraid of cliche? But to fair to Trump, there might be stairs.

  15. Woolly: We need to remember that Trump, who last year argued angrily that share prices were being maintained by “artificially low” interest rates and who now regularly tweets about higher share prices with great approval and complains that he is not being given the credit. There is no obvious consistency nor coherence to his viewpoint.

  16. Scott, it is obvious sTrumpet and his advisors are a lot smarter than eTASS, regardless which sock puppet he chooses to use, to not visit DMZ at this time. But then, drying paint is smarter than eTASS.

  17. “There is no obvious consistency nor coherence to his viewpoint.”
    The market doesn’t care. What’s your end game, Emery? To be correct about future events or to rail against Trump’s heterodoxy?
    I didn’t vote for Trump. I don’t have a dog in this fight, I am along for the ride on the stock market. The notion that Hillary would have been a “better” president than Trump is highly personal at this point.

  18. Emery,

    1st none of the other POTUS were there at a time when regime was making a practice of lobbing ballistic missiles around, and overtly threatening to launch an attack on us..

    2nd I’m damn happy with what the markets have done for my IRA and other holdings. (not that it has anything to do with the JD post) Does Trump deserve the credit? Well I think his election does, I certainly don’t think the underachiever O deserves any credit for the enthusiasm the markets have today.

  19. Economic conservatives say the market has risen because Trump is antoganistic towards government regulators, in the bureaucracies and in the courts. You regulate things to slow them down, not to speed them up. The natural growth rate of anything is faster unregulated. Obama, Hillary, and the Dems love regulations. Whatever you want to do is wrong and your appetites needs to be tempered by the wiser, more responsible unelected state regulators. No wonder lefties have spent the last 8 years telling us that growth greater than 3% was no longer possible — it isn’t when they are in charge. European-style economic regs result in European-style economic growth.
    This should be elementary.
    Of course, the Dems have been telling us for decades that economic growth destroys the natural environment and causes income inequality. All you had to do was listen. For self-described humanists, they don’t trust human beings much.

  20. My three Vanguard Index funds are up 22%, 17% and 13.94% YTD. I agree with a lighter touch regarding regulation. Not everything Trump says is stupid. Although he does say a lot of stupid things.

  21. Yes, Emery, let’s have the leader of the free world visit the DMZ while Dear Leader is threatening to start World War 3. Gosh, what could possibly differentiate these previous visits from now….?

    Hint; don’t take up spicy food and smoking, Emery, ‘cuz you’ll blow your head off from where it is currently situated.

  22. Emery: “Scott, you seem to imply that under Obama NK was less volatile.”

    The NK’s shrugged off O’s “stern warning” he made in March 2012 during his visit to the DMZ. They didn’t launch a missile (failed test) until the next month. About 11 months later the tested ~ 40kt nuke blast. They were pretty quiet on the nuke test side until 2016. There weren’t many missile tests until they ramped up in 2016 and going forward to date.

    I’d say that’s a little less volatile comparing 2012 to today.

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