Place Your Bets!
By Mitch Berg
Job numbers tomorrow from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Last month’s unemployment rate was “only” 8.2% – with a workforce particpation rate of 63.8%, yielding an overall employment rate or 58.57%
So given that unemployment claims are rising again, place your bets. What will be tomorrow’s:
- Unemployment
- Workforce participation
- Employment (that’s the workforce less the unemployment rate)
Place your predictions for any or all of the above. Winner gets…well, mad props.
My bets? 8.3% unemployment, 63.7% participation, 58.41% overall employment.
August 2nd, 2012 at 8:10 am
Numbers just out; claims up 362,000 more. Big number comes up tomorrow, but I bet it stays steady at around 8% to provide cover for the Kenyan.
August 2nd, 2012 at 8:44 am
I’m guessing it will hold steady or tick slightly lower. I know a few people who have secured new jobs in the past month (in other parts of the country, not Minnesota). One, who was avidly searching for a job and scouring the listings, said that the number of for hire ads had ticked up significantly in her area, and she just landed and started a job two weeks ago. In my wanderings the past several days I’ve seen two retail stores with workers wanted signs on the doors.
I realize this is just anecdotal, so I’m wondering what other people are seeing (?)
August 2nd, 2012 at 9:29 am
“…so I’m wondering what other people are seeing”
Depends. For jobs that require training and skills (machinists, welders, etc.) there is incredibly high demand. A machinery builder I know currently has 40 skilled trade positions they are trying to fill. They are also located in Southwestern MN and nearly all the manufacturing businesses in the region (SoDak, NoDak, Western IA) are experiencing the same difficulties. Here in the high cost/high tax/low service “Cities” the demand for skilled workers is here, but not so high that people aren’t looking to go West where there is steadier work. For recent college grads – my lone anecdote comes from a neighbor. Both his kids graduated in the last 2-4 years from college and are back home living with him. One is pursuing a graduate degree in a therapy related program and the other works for a large retail operation.
Another neighbors kid skipped/had no interest in college and got a job at a car dealership. In four years he has gone from washing/parking cars to top salesperson at the dealership. Kid works hard, studies his product (cars, features, financing etc) and is in the process of buying a house.
I’m not offering these anecdotes to say going to college is a bad idea – but people need to be aware that unless you are getting (or creating for yourself) marketable knowledge/skills, this economy has no room for you.
August 2nd, 2012 at 9:30 am
Uptick. July is a hard month for unemployment. Companies aren’t usually hiring, people are on vacation, college kids are taking up some of the space. 8.3% minimum. And that’s a bullshit stat, real unemployment is closer to 20%.
August 2nd, 2012 at 10:40 am
So the birther crazies here are still calling Obama ‘Kenyan’? You lot really are fact averse aren’t you?
Just remember it was the policies of the right that crashed the economy in the first place, and that R-money is big on repeating all of the same mistakes all over again, only more so.
It’s not like your side of the political aisle has any great success you can point to for your ideas……….old, recycled over and over failed ideas.
Despite the right wing obstruction attempts, employment is getting better; manufacturing has been better under Obama than it has been in decades, and is getting stronger. Building construction is up and housing is improving.
We’re not there yet, but …….oh yeah……..and Ballotpedia just did a study that shows incumbents — that would be predominantly REPUBLICAN / Conservative tea party incumbents from the 2010 election cycle — are failing in primaries at an unprecedented rate. Looks like a lot of right wing voters have voters remorse!
That, and Obama is doing so much better than Mitts on R-money in the swing states. Not fabulous news, but consistently steady and improving news.
Wow, you sure hate it when America succeeds don’t you?
Here’s a challenge to you voter fraud /conspiracy theory nutjobs. Now is the time of year when election judge training is taking place. I just went through it recently — and I opted for the full head-election judge training to be sure I had a chance to learn everything available (including trouble shooting the machinery when ballots jam).
Instead of trying to disenfranchise legal Minnesota citizens, especially old people, students, and Minnesotans serving in the military, why don’t you do something constructive for a change. Go help MAKE an election be fraud free – become an election judge. Elections require a minimum of four judges – but they require that one each be from each of the two major parties because of the state requirements for how curbside voting is conducted.
Quit trying to make it more costly and inefficient to vote – and go participate! Try being fact-based – for a change. Our election process in Minnesota is awesome.
August 2nd, 2012 at 10:47 am
DG,
It’s kinda bad form to both thread-jack and ignore the sizeable number of your previous comments that have been factually and ethically shredded and left with questions to you that go unanswered.
Care to go back and answer a few of those questions?
So the birther crazies
I saw one reference, not plural. And I suspect it was likely more to goad you and your ilk than as a statement of fact.
August 2nd, 2012 at 11:08 am
Great idea, Dog Poop! Why don’t you find some facts, instead of the lies that you vomit out from the Fuhrer’s ministry of propaganda?
I volunteer at a job transition support group at Wooddale Church in EP. On average, that group adds 10 people every week. Some people have found jobs, most of which were where the person wanted to be career wise, but many were “settling” positions that people took out of desperation. Most of the group’s longer term searchers are in their 50s into their 60s.
That said; here are a couple of success stories; A friend of mine, an auto technician, has two sons that got their AA’s in community colleges, but couldn’t find anything up their alley. Because they were raised properly, they both decided to go to trade school at Dakota County Vo-Tech. One took welding classes and got very good at it, so good in fact, that he had three offers before he graduated. He ended up taking a gig at a construction company, for $40k per year, plus benefits, and a company truck, right out of the gun. His brother, is pretty technically savvy, so he learned CNC programming. He had six offers before he graduated and took a job that pays him $39k with benefits and he gets annual profit sharing from the company. Along with their dad, they bought two modest foreclosed houses and are rehabbing them together, so that each will have one when they are done. My friend spoke with several of his son’s instructors and was informed that in the 7 county metro area, there are at least 100 active jobs available each week for CNC qualified people and the need for welders, sheet metal fabricators (HVAC), electricians and plumbers, continues to grow.
August 2nd, 2012 at 11:55 am
Dog Gone, you obviously couldn’t handle a real, factual debate…as evident from your drop and run style of commenting.
But I can’t think of anything more “nutjobish” than arguing against a proven occurrence (voter fraud), with something that may or may not happen (disenfranchisement). And I am generous in my use of the word “may”.
August 2nd, 2012 at 12:05 pm
DG, pfft!!! That is all.
August 2nd, 2012 at 12:12 pm
…and, Dog Gone, on the off chance you may actually pay attention to fact, the economic malaise was hardly caused by policies of the “right”, the slide started when Bush (not so “right”) was in office and Democrats controlled the legislature. In fact, (Junior) Senator Obama voted in favor of the last Bush budget.
This economy is squarely on the shoulders of the left, of should I say the blame for which…the burden is on the shoulder of the American taxpayer.
August 2nd, 2012 at 12:14 pm
DG;dr
August 2nd, 2012 at 12:20 pm
This what you need to know about the Left in this country:
They consider it entirely reasonable to believe both that the massive spending increase by Obama in his first year in office means that he gets credit for “saving the economy”, and that the massive spending increase was really done by Bush in his last year, so Obama is not responsible for it.
August 2nd, 2012 at 12:26 pm
Unemployment, as reported by the BLS will be 8.3 to 8.2 through October and then, just before the election, they’ll go to 7.0. How can this happen? With an imperial president, it won’t matter. ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN and NPR will not question the numbers, but will swoon with hopey-changey optimism.
August 2nd, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Seeuentee;dr
Miss PuppyMill couldn’t even specify the “policies of the right…”
Typical baseless chanting points…
Puppymillin is her only contribution to society.
August 2nd, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Most libs point to the repeal, in 1999, of parts of the Glass-Steagal act as providing the basis for housing boom-bust of 2000-2008.
The repeal was passed by a GOP congress and signed by Bill Clinton. Here’s what Bill Clinton had to say about the repeal when he signed it (What? You thought Bush II invented “signing statements?):
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=56922#axzz1aV0pqgub
Bill Clinton will give the speech that formally nominates Barack Obama as the Democrat presidential candidate this year. The dems chose Clinton because he is seen, in contrast with Obama, as a wise steward of the nation’s economy.
August 2nd, 2012 at 12:45 pm
DG;dr
August 3rd, 2012 at 7:49 am
Nonfarm payrolls increased 163,000 in July, well above the 100,000 consensus. Unemployment ticked higher to 8.3%.
I’m expecting jobs number to be good again in August. Hiring seems to be accelerating somewhat, albeit slowly.
August 3rd, 2012 at 8:36 am
Hiring seems to be accelerating somewhat
But not enough to keep pace with layoffs, or (for purposes of the participation and employment numbers) people leaving the workforce.
August 3rd, 2012 at 11:28 am
Actually layoffs have fallen to a 16 month low (45% lower than a year ago):
http://www.businessinsider.com/challenger-july-layoffs-2012-8
A lot of new workers entered the workforce in May-June (newly-minted high school and college graduates) so there is a larger pool of workers, hence higher unemployed number. It will take over 250,000 new jobs a month just to stay even. As nice as 163,000 seems when the consensus was 100,000, it will take a lot more to sop up the excess supply of workers.
Having said that, the stock market is way up on this news, so the general sentiment is that this is an optimistic sign, or that it is still anemic enough to warrant QE3 (a positive for the markets). I agree in that it appears that job growth is gaining some traction. Reports from people I know who are job searching are brighter. More jobs listed and they are getting more and more interviews.
Unfortunately, jobs are the last thing to come back in a recession. If August jobs are better then we might be able to say it’s a trend. But not yet.
August 3rd, 2012 at 12:13 pm
Unfortunately, jobs are the last thing to come back in a recession
By this point in Reagan’s first term, we were creating over half a million new jobs a month (for 60 million fewer Americans). The economy was growing at 6% annually.
The job “growth” didn’t even keep pace with job losses, much less growth. That’s why the enemployment rate went up AND the participation rate went down AND we had the job numbers we did.
You can be a pollyanna if you want. I just get to call you on it.
August 3rd, 2012 at 12:53 pm
At this point in the Reagan administration we hadn’t suffered a near collapse of the banking system (2008), a collapse of the housing market (starting in 2007-8), near collapse of auto industry, bank failures and the mother of all credit crunches, and a fiscal crisis/credit crunch in Europe. The landscape is so different that it is an apples-to-oranges comparison at best.
Pollyanna? Well given the above list of economic disasters I’d say we’re doing as well as can be expected. It takes a while to climb out of a deep hole.
August 3rd, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Those are some pretty miserable excuses, “sanity”.
That’s what you get from Obama — excuses — and what you’ll get for the next four years if he is re-elected.
Obam wants to raise taxes. During a recession. And the taxes raised will not even begin to touch his trillion dollar plus deficits. The man is an idiot.
August 3rd, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Sanity said:
“It takes a while to climb out of a deep hole.”
I’ll agree with that statement, but I will also note that it’s hard to climb with a shovel in your hand.
August 3rd, 2012 at 4:46 pm
“The first rule of holes is when you’re in one, stop digging.When you’re in three, bring a lot of shovels”.
-Thomas Friedman, New York times clumnist
There seems to be a bipartisan consensus that Friedman is, at best, a person confused by words and their meaning.
http://nypress.com/flat-n-all-that/