The Wave Of The Future Has Not Yet Crashed On The Beach Of Public Opinion

Two years ago, during the run-up to the Minnesota Gubernatorial election, I published the results of some GOP-friendly internal polling that showed that Tom Emmer was leaving votes on the table, not so much for opposing gay marriage per se, but by not pushing a referendum on the issue (as opposed to the legislature or the courts deciding it).   Although I and many of Emmer’s libertarian base considered this a feature rather than a bug, it retrospect it may have been a bit of personal and philosophical integrity but a political mistake.

If it wasn’t a fluke.

And a new Quinnipiac poll indicates it wasn’t:

Quinnipac’s latest poll of the Sunshine State finds that 25 percent of voters say Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage makes them less likely to vote for him. On the other hand, 11 percent say that it makes them more likely to vote for him.

Among independents, 23 percent say that they’re less likely to vote for Obama over same sex marriage. Older voters (55 and older), born-again evangelical Christians, lower income voters and military veterans are all more likely than other demographic groups to say that Obama’s backing of same-sex marriage will sway them towards Romney.

And even a low-information DFL voter knows that 23 is bigger than 11.  Probably.

By the way, the Q-poll (insert all May polling disclaimers here) is bullish on Mitt:

On the whole, Romney beats President Obama by six points in Florida, leading 47 to 41 percent over the incumbent president.

We all know what polls in May are worth.  I’m disinclined to put much stock in any of them until Labor Day, when all the low-information voters (mostly Democrats) start putting their voting caps on.

Still, it’s a bit of a morale booster, seeing the Democrats racking up the unforced errors.

1 thought on “The Wave Of The Future Has Not Yet Crashed On The Beach Of Public Opinion

  1. The polls are mostly even, but I am getting a whiff of panic from Team O that I am not getting from the Romney campaign. Internal polling at the White House must be telling them that they are in trouble.
    One bell-weather to look for: criticism from Bill Clinton, like the criticism that Booker was forced to recant. Obama can’t bully Clinton. If Bill says something critical of Obama, it would be a signal to other Dems that it was time to jump ship.

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