California in the rear-view mirror

California residents continue to vote with their feet. From this NYT article in May,

For the second time in two years, the California Department of Finance has reported a drop in the state’s population.

California lost 117,552 residents last year, driven largely by the Covid death toll and a sharp drop in foreign immigration. This followed a slightly bigger decline in 2020, when the state lost 182,083 residents — the first time in more than a century that California got smaller.

The latest data is further evidence that California, whose identity has been tied to expansive growth going back to the Gold Rush days, is now a state of stagnant growth. That has already resulted in the state losing a congressional seat for the first time in its 170-year history.

This City Journal article found that since 2000, California saw a net loss of over 2.6 million people. Many of those are taxpayers.

The comforting tale that only the old, bitter, and uneducated are moving out simply does not withstand scrutiny. An analysis of IRS data through 2019 confirms that increasing domestic migration is not dominated by the youngest or oldest households. Between 2012 and 2019, tax filers under 26 years old constituted only 4 percent of net domestic outmigrants. About 77 percent of the increase came among those in their prime earning years of 35 to 64. In 2019, 27 percent of net domestic migrants were aged 35 to 44, while 21 percent were aged 55 to 64.

As an unscientific experiment, I looked up U-Haul rates for a 10′ truck, picking up on September 6, both leaving and going to California, with Texas and Florida as the other ends of the trip.

from Los Angeles, California…

Los Angeles to Dallas – $2,701
Los Angeles to Miami – $4,416

to Los Angeles, California…

Dallas to Los Angeles – $1,296
Miami to Los Angeles – $2,760


from San Francisco, California…

San Francisco to Dallas – $3,350
San Francisco to Miami – $4,902

to San Francisco, California…

Dallas to San Francisco – $1,462
Miami to San Francisco – $3,065


It’s 60-100% more expensive leaving California than going to California. What might that say about demand in California and which direction trucks are going, and where they’re staying?

The tech and entertainment industries can survive longer because so many of their dollars come from outside the state, but as crime and lawlessness and leftist policies drive out more and more people, eventually the California tax base won’t support the status quo. Then we can sit back with some popcorn and watch the fireworks.

Play ball! (but don’t watch it)

The MLB All-Star game this past Tuesday garnered a rating of 4.2 rating and 7.5 million viewers. Both numbers were record lows, though the game did handily win the night.

Last year MLB pulled the All-Star game out of Atlanta because the state of Georgia dared to exercise democratic oversight of its own election process. Certainly that drove some fans away, and I’m one of them. I’ve paid for MLB.TV for quite a few years, but this year I didn’t, and I won’t ever again, and I won’t watch another All-Star game, until MLB apologizes for its craven kowtowing to wokery.

But, baseball’s problems started long before that. An important catalyst in knocking baseball off its unique place in American culture was the 1994 strike. That strike began in August and wiped out the rest of the season and, most importantly, the postseason.

Before that strike, the ratings of the All-Star game from 1992-1994 were 14.9, 15.6 and 15.7. The year after the strike, in 1995, the rating was 13.9, and it has been steadily dropping ever since. Whether by design or not, the steroid era which followed the strike did bring back interest in baseball, as behemoths bashed home runs at a record pace. In 1998, Mark McGuire and Sammy Sosa battled to break one of baseball’s sacred records, the home run record of 61 set by Roger Maris in 1961. The rating of the All-Star game that year was 13.3, and that has never been exceeded since.

Since 2015, the rating of every All-Star game has been a new record low, except for 2019. The ratings of the World Series, too, have fallen in tandem.

There are a witches brew of reasons as to why baseball’s popularity isn’t what it once was. Younger people have a myriad of other entertainment options, and many more choices of sports to participate in when they’re younger. Pace of play doesn’t help baseball’s cause, nor does a decline in balls put into play.

While I never miss a Vikings game, and my favorite sports teams of all time were Larry Bird’s Celtics teams, baseball is my favorite. Each season is a saga. From the languid sun-drenched days of spring training, to cold spring games, through the height of summer, to the crisp fall postseason, the ebb and flow of teams in the standings is a story one can follow for months.

And if an increasingly woke corporate MLB drives away fans like me which it can’t afford to lose, what hope does it have?

Mask theater…literally!

The missus and I were thinking of taking in a play this weekend at one of the theaters listed below, but, we had no desire to spend the time wearing a mask so we nixed the idea. I was curious so I looked up the covid policies for a number of theaters around town. They’re free to do as they wish. I do wonder though how much business some of these are turning away. I can only assume they’re doing fine.

(This is not an exhaustive list of every theater in the Twin Cities. Also, some are not included here as I could not find any info on covid policies on their websites.)

Guthrie – Effective April 18, 2022, all audience members, regardless of age, must wear a mask that securely covers the nose and mouth (no bandanas, neck gaiters or face shields) when entering and inside the theater. Proof of vaccination is not required to see a performance at the Guthrie.

Ordway – Given the improvement in COVID-19 positivity rates and cases in our community, beginning on April 1 the Arts Partners will no longer require proof of vaccination or negative COVID test results in order to attend performances at the Ordway. Masks will also no longer be required, but will be welcomed and encouraged.

Children’s – As of April 23, 2022, to ensure the safety of our patrons, artists, and staff, Children’s Theatre Company will continue to require audiences to wear a mask in the theatre and lobby spaces. Masks must cover the mouth and nose and fit tightly to the face (no bandanas, face shields, or gaiters).  Proof of vaccination or a negative test is no longer required to attend a show at CTC.

Chanhassen – We highly recommend wearing a mask covering your nose and mouth when not eating or drinking.

Hennepin Theater Trust – Given the improvement in COVID-19 positivity rates and cases in our community, beginning on April 18, our theatres will no longer require proof of vaccination or negative COVID test results to attend performances at the historic Orpheum, State and Pantages theatres, The Hennepin and 824 Hennepin. Masks will also no longer be required but are welcomed and encouraged.

First Avenue – Effective Wednesday, June 1, 2022, concerts and events at First Avenue and associated venues will no longer require proof of a full course of COVID-19 vaccination, or proof of a negative COVID-19 test.

Park Square – Masks are required for theatre attendance except while eating or drinking. Proof of COVID-19 vaccination or negative test results are no longer required to attend performances.

Theater in the Round – Masks are always appreciated in our space, as the intimacy of our venue increases risk of transmission to other patrons and our artists, which could lead to illness and/or cancelled performances. TRP reserves the right to require masks for audiences and/or participants if requested by the cast and crew, guest artists, workshop instructors, volunteer supervisors, for specially designated performances

History – All audience, artists, and staff members will be masked regardless of vaccination status.

Old Log – We recommend the use of facial masks for all guests inside our theatre that are unvaccinated

Jungle – We have been in conversation with our theater colleagues in the Twin Cities area, and like many of them, the Jungle Theater will be requiring masks for audience members, as well as proof of vaccination or proof of negative Covid-19 test within 72 hours of showtime.

Yellow Tree – Along with many other performing arts venues across the state, we will now require Proof of Vaccination from all audience members (digitally on your phone, by email or paper). All audience members are also required to be masked inside regardless of vaccination status.

Illusion – Please note that you must provide proof of vaccination or a negative covid test conducted in the past 72 hours of the event you’re attending. You will be asked to present this with your ID when you enter the building. You must also wear a mask at all times inside the building.

Mixed Blood – All patrons, including children, attending Mixed Blood performances must either show proof of full vaccination against COVID-19 (at least 14 days have passed since the final dose), or proof of a negative COVID-19 PCR test taken in the prior 72-hours. On-site testing will be available on a first come first served basis before every performance. All patrons, regardless of vaccination status, must always wear masks over their nose and mouth while inside the venue.

Cancel Culture keeps banking hours

First, some background to catch up on. In January, in this Newsweek column, Todd Zywicki pointed out how cancel culture has infected even the buttoned-down world of banking.

This past November, Missouri’s conservative Defense of Liberty PAC scheduled a high-profile event featuring a speech by Donald Trump, Jr. On November 9, however, WePay—a JPMorgan Chase subsidiary that provided the payment services for the event—announced the termination of those services. WePay accused the organization of violating its policy against promotion of “hate, violence, racial intolerance, terrorism, the financial exploitation of a crime, or items or activities that encourage, promote facilitate or instruct others regarding the same.” Although WePay eventually reversed its decision, the organization had to cancel the speech.

WePay’s actions followed a series of similar incidents in recent years that includes the cancellation of former president Trump’s personal bank account, Michael Flynn’s credit cards and at least one Christian nonprofit organization. The fossil fuel and firearms industries have been targeted too. Businesses selling controversial materials have had their payments services terminated and consequently shuttered. The decisions to cancel these high-profile individuals or groups are often reversed after public outcry and dismissed as a “mistake” by the providers. But what about individual people who lack the public standing to fight back?

In February then, the Minnesota Bank and Trust threw Mike Lindell (of MyPillow fame) out the frosted glass doors and onto the street.

MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell has been terminated as a client by the Minnesota Bank & Trust a month after the financial institution described him as a “reputation risk.”

Insider viewed two letters sent to Lindell by the bank dated February 11. In one letter, the bank said Lindell’s accounts with the bank would be closed by the end of business on February 18.

Here is some audio of a call a bank rep had with a MyPillow exec on the matter.

In March, Biden issued (er, that should probably be “Biden” “issued”…) an executive order calling for studies on the feasibility and ramifications of implementing central bank digital currencies. The EO calls for several reports due by September 5.

One such report was issued last week by the Treasure Department on a “Framework for International Engagement on Digital Assets”.

China is already taking steps towards a digital renminbi. Here, the central banks have several reasons for being interested in a digital currency. One is the threat that cryptocurrencies pose to their hegemony.

There’s the danger in a cbdc, though. The implementation will probably not involve something like a blockchain or some similar form of distributed ledger for tracking and verifying transactions. Rather, the state, or a state body, will track things in some kind of database.

And that’s why the Left is interested. Imagine the power the Left would have over you if the state can see all your digital transactions, and worse, has the power to stop them.

Hey, Joe Citizen, I don’t want you buying that firearm. Transaction denied. Hey, Joe Citizen, you’ve bought too much gas this month already and you’re killing the planet. Transaction denied.

If Elizabeth Warren is for it, that alone should be a red flag. The Left means to control you, by any means at their disposal. We’re a long ways from the innocent days when your neighborhood bank was part of your community and there to serve you.

The fickle girls of rock

The Beach Boys sang “Wendy, Wendy what went wrong oh, so wrong/We went together for so long/I never thought a guy could cry/Til you made it with another guy”
Who did she run off with? Apparently Bruce Springsteen in Born to Run, “I wanna die with you, Wendy, on the streets tonight/In an everlasting kiss”

Jefferson Starship sang “Sarah, Sarah/storms are brewing in your eyes/Sarah, Sarah/no time is a good time for goodbyes”
Why is Sarah leaving? Apparently she ran off with Thin Lizzy… “When you came in my life/You changed my world/My Sarah”

Steely Dan sang “It’s like a dream come true/So won’t you smile for the camera/I know they’re gonna love it, Peg”
Who did Peg leave to chase fame in the spotlight? Apparently Buddy Holly… “If you knew Peggy Sue/Then you’d know why I feel blue/Without Peggy, my Peggy Sue”
And the Beatles might’ve secretly expressed their love for her with their song P.S. I Love You

Billy Joel sang “Laura/Calls me In the middle of the night/Passes on her Painful information”
What was the painful information? Apparently she told Christopher Cross she didn’t have long to live… “Think of Laura but laugh don’t cry/I know she’d want it that way”

Bruce Springsteen eventually ditched Wendy for Terry on the Backstreets… “One soft infested summer Me and Terry became friends/ Trying in vain to breathe the fire we was born in” Apparently Terry left the Everly Brothers to run off with Bruce… “Goodbye to Helen Heartbreak, Rosa Rain/ Susie Sorrow, Paula Pain/Terry Teardrops, Betty Blue”

Speaking of a Terry, both Bob Geldof (Love Like a Rocket) and Jackson Browne (Waterloo Sunset) were stalking a couple named Terry and Julie… Geldof: “Terry still meets Julie every Friday night Down at waterloo underground/Nothing much has changed Except now they’re both afraid” Browne: “Terry meets Julie, Waterloo Station Every Friday night/I am so lazy, don’t want to wander I stay at home at night”

It tolls for thee

Here’s the saddest thing you’ll read today. An anthropology professor at UCLA is retiring early, another casualty of the mob.

The principal driver of the doublethink in my department and so many others at UCLA is fear of the woke faction.

Signs of this fear are omnipresent. Discussing whether to stop requiring the GRE (a standardized test, like the SAT) from applicants to our Ph.D. program, one colleague told a meeting of the biological anthropology subfield that he regarded the GRE as the most informative part of an applicant’s dossier, but that we had no choice but to vote to stop requiring it. Why? Because otherwise we would be regarded as racists. (I was the only person to vote against dropping the GRE requirement).

Why am I pessimistic? For a few reasons.

First, the younger faculty tend to be far more woke than their elders. Second, administrators and student protesters perform elaborately choreographed routines that inevitably end with the former enacting policies that they wanted to enact anyway, for which the latter’s public temper tantrums serve as a pretext. Third, now that standardized tests have been dropped from undergraduate application requirements, a growing number of students will be simultaneously unable to handle university level coursework, and predisposed to denounce their professors for heresy, having been chosen for admission on the basis on their leftist activism as high school students. Meanwhile, California’s K-12 schools are increasingly substituting mind-damaging political indoctrination for education.

The rise of alternative institutions, like the University of Austin and Ralston College, are very hopeful signs even though the work is slow-going. But until those new schools are built, I can’t bear to spend one more moment in a place that’s morally and intellectually bankrupt.

That’s it: I’m getting out.

Vast swaths of the culture have fallen behind the Woke Curtain. None more so than academia. Not surprising, since it was the incubator for this plague. I believe that eventually the woke madness will burn itself out because it is not a natural human state. But, untold damage will be done before that happens. Communism is a fair example. It is not natural for people to live effectively as prisoners in a police state and it couldn’t last, but it took a generation or two for the Iron Curtain to fall.

The young people whose heads are being filled with this swill are a lost cause. They won’t be reasoned with. They’ll continue to slither into society and infect the HR departments and faculty lounges and press rooms board rooms where they end up. We’ll have to wait till they fade from the scene, and that, sadly, will be a long time.

Paris

This is Paris, France. Named for the Parisii tribe which lived on the banks of the Seine at the time of the Roman Republic. Paris most likely began as a settlement on the Île de la Cité, the island in the Seine where Notre Dame now sits, a very defensible position. The ubiquitous Romans were there. They knew the place as Lutetia. (Notre Dame probably sits on the sit of a former Roman temple.)

Awhile back we had looked at Colchester and York in England and remarked how the past history of those cities could still be seen in the street patterns, especially where the city walls are or were. Looking at this overhead view though, it’s not as easy to tell where the city walls of Paris were, even though Paris saw several major wall constructions as the city grew outwards on both banks of the river. As the city expanded, the walls needed to expand with it.

The first major medieval wall was built from 1190 to 1215 during the reign of Philip II. Philip was the first to be called “King of France.” At the time this wall was being built, Notre Dame was in its reasonably early years of construction, begun in the 1160s by Bishop Maurice de Sully under the reign of Philip’s father, Louis VII.

Why isn’t it as easy as some other places to detect where the walls were? It’s because in the 19th century Paris undertook several major urban renewal projects which altered the old medieval street plans.

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Recessional

David Mamet, the playwright and screenwriter, is among my favorite writers. (My other favorite to pull off that particular daily double is Tom Stoppard.)

In 2008, Mamet wrote a piece at the Village Voice entitled “Why I Am No Longer a ‘Brain-Dead Liberal’.” In it, he described the beginning of his journey away from conventional liberal beliefs.

And, I wondered, how could I have spent decades thinking that I thought everything was always wrong at the same time that I thought I thought that people were basically good at heart? Which was it? I began to question what I actually thought and found that I do not think that people are basically good at heart; indeed, that view of human nature has both prompted and informed my writing for the last 40 years. I think that people, in circumstances of stress, can behave like swine, and that this, indeed, is not only a fit subject, but the only subject, of drama.

I’d observed that lust, greed, envy, sloth, and their pals are giving the world a good run for its money, but that nonetheless, people in general seem to get from day to day; and that we in the United States get from day to day under rather wonderful and privileged circumstances—that we are not and never have been the villains that some of the world and some of our citizens make us out to be, but that we are a confection of normal (greedy, lustful, duplicitous, corrupt, inspired—in short, human) individuals living under a spectacularly effective compact called the Constitution, and lucky to get it.

Today, of course, to view America as a pretty darn good place to live, and boy howdy aren’t we lucky that we do, is to the Left heresy.

In 2011, Mamet wrote a book entitled The Secret Knowledge in which he shared in his inimitable way where his intellectual journey had taken him in the intervening three years. The book was a collection of essays and in them Mamet summed up his effort to reconcile what, as Leftists do, had been assumed to be default and correct political views with what he observed.

This is the essence of Leftist thought. It is a devolution from reason to “belief”, in an effort to stave off a feeling of powerlessness. And if government is Good, it is a logical elaboration that more government power is Better. But the opposite is apparent both to anyone who has ever had to deal with Government, and, I think, to any dispassionate observer.

It is in sympathy with the first and in the hope of enlarging the second group that I have written this book.

This year Mamet published Recessional: The Death of Free Speech and the Cost of a Free Lunch. Like The Secret Knowledge. It too is a collection of essays, many of which had appeared in the National Review. Many were written during the times when Covid policies ravaged what the disease had left untouched. Mamet recalls observing “a family of four, on mountain bikes, at five thousand feet, climbing an empty road in northern Nevada, all wearing masks.”

Here are a couple examples of his insights.

But the question occurs to me again: Why are Jews liberals? And I have come to a new answer. I used to think we voted for Democrats out of a millennial biblical occupation with justice, compassion and generosity. I no longer think so.

J.S. Mill wrote that give a man a choice of two tasks, one that will bring him renumeration if he works at it and the other that will pay him regardless of his effort, he will choose the second, take the free money, and employ his energy seeking additional benefits. We see Mill’s observation at work in welfare, unemployment, and other government subsidies. No amount of oversight will keep a recipient from taking the stipend and then finding a way to improve his lot off the books

Similarly, we Jews have two political choices: conservatism, counseling individual initiative; and liberalism, promoting statism, which is to say passivity and government support. But we Jews do not need help or direction in embracing self-reliance; it’s been all we’ve had for two thousand years. It’s our party trick. We’ve always been on our own.

Liberalism was attractive because it offered Jews something we did not have and for which we’ve always longed: the promise of inclusion, which is to say anonymity.

And this sister thought,

Observe that every conservative who employs the preface “This may not be politically correct but” is not only acknowledging but aiding the forces of thought control. These forces do not need to be acknowledged, and whether or not they are opposed, they must not be strengthened.

Napoleon said that if we want to know our opponent’s fears, we need merely observe that with which he seeks to terrify us. Leftists are terrified of exclusion from the mob and see, everywhere, the exclusion’s cost. Imprisonment, vituperation, bankruptcy of conservative opponents, the severity of their punishments fit not to the degree of their deviation (to the Left there are no degrees) but to their persistence, having been threatened and warned, in any deviation.

He recognizes the ugly face of Leftism because he lived it. There could be no better prophet. (For a typical reaction to Mamet’s apostasy, see here. Someone needs to change their sheets.)

And so, like King Lear, the liberal Left “decided” to grant “some” of the power they supposedly had to more “worthy” recipients – that is, those from whom it had been supposedly stolen.

But, again as with Lear, we see that the generous assignment of some of one’s power inevitably inspires its recipients to usurp the rest. Hitler ran a bluff on France in 1940, and the Bolsheviks could’ve been stopped in the suburbs of Moscow by a squad of police (see Minneapolis). King Lear thought himself generous and was beggared by those to whom he bequeathed his power.

Now our country is being eviscerated by the Marxist Left. Each battle they win emboldens them to escalate their activities: shaming becomes blacklisting; picketing becomes destruction; demonstrations become riots. Just as with taxes, all they want is all we got, and who could stop them? Enter Donald Trump.

He looked at the Left and informed us that he knew them of old: they were the same thugs, thieves, cheats and whores with whom he’d been doing business all his life. He was formed by the construction industry.

The Left wet the bed.

We Three Things

Medieval Europe saw the world as divided into three orders. Those who pray, those who fight, and those who work.

The first, those who pray, consisted of the clergy. The second, those who fight, consisted of the nobility. The third, those who work, consisted of the serfs, peasants and others who worked the land.

The orders were complementary, and each contributed to society as a whole. The workers were the economic engine and put food on the table. The Church certainly played a role in civic life, but faith was also an integral part of life and seeking God’s favor was both a Christian’s duty and desire. The nobility and the knights that came from it fought to preserve it all.

In France, these orders became known as Estates, and these Estates made up the Ancien Régime which lasted until the French Revolution.

In the 18th century, following from these institions, the Press became known as the Fourth Estate.

The appellation may have started as a witticism, but journalists, convinced of their own priesthood, eventually took it seriously.

While our national media at one time may have functioned as a watchdog, speaking truth to power, comforting the afflicted and afflicting the comfortable, our Fourth Estate has become PR flacks and gatekeepers for the side they have chosen.

Rather than complementing other sectors of society, and contributing to the whole, our Fourth Estate works against those it disagrees with, and that is not a recipe for a healthy society.

Watergate: Conclusion

When Suleiman the Magnificent died in Hungary in 1566, the Grand Vizier at the time, Sokollu Mehmed Pasha, had the witnesses to the death killed in order to keep the Sultan’s passing a secret so that the successor, Selim II, would have time to take over. Many times I’ve wondered if Nixon ever secretly wished he had such extreme powers, for the Nixon Administration’s undoing ultimately came from internal witnesses.

Within a week of the break-in, the Nixon Administration had decided to hinder the FBI’s investigation into the break-in, not just to cover up the Administration’s involvement in the wiretapping of the DNC, but also to conceal the questionable uses to which campaign funds had been put.

The summer of 1972 was relatively uneventful, on the surface. Behind the headlines, John Dean was meeting with Acting FBI Directory Gray ostensibly to “cooperate”, but actually to keep abreast and ahead of the investigation. And, hush money was paid to Howard Hunt.

The Watergate burglars were indicated in September. The next day, Bob Woodward got in touch with his source, Deep Throat. This source was in fact Mark Felt at the FBI, and Felt was seeing everything the FBI had in the investigation. Felt told Woodward that campaign money had financed the Watergate operation and “other intelligence-gathering activities.” The resulting Washington Post story increased the pressure on the White House, but the firewall still held. In November, Nixon defeated George McGovern with 60% of the popular vote and a landslide in the Electoral College, 520 to 17.

The trial of the Watergate burglars began in early January. Guilty verdicts were returned January 30 1973. Sentencing was scheduled for March 23. The judge in the trial, John Sirica, wrote in his book To Set the Record Straight about his belief that the trial had not revealed everything about the break-ins.

I was far from alone in my skepticism about the facts brought out at the trial. The Senate of the United States had voted to investigate the Republican campaign tactics. The press was full of caustic comments about the trial itself and the government’s handling of it. I had been practicing law for thirty years. I had handled cased involving political scandals. I knew the Watergate case was not what the trial in January had made it seem. But by late March, with the trial over, there didn’t seem to be a lot more I could do about it.

On March 20, John Dean received word that Howard Hunt was demanding more money. Dean wrote in Blind Ambition:

O’Brien gave me a helpless look. “I don’t know, John. I asked him the same question and he [Hunt] just said ‘You tell Dean I need the money by the close of business Wednesday. And if I don’t get it, I’m going to have to reconsider my options. And I’ll have some seamy things to say about what I did for John Ehrlichman while I was at the White House.'”

The next day, March 21, Dean met with Nixon about this new threat. Dean described the growing threat with the memorable phrase, “We have a cancer within – close to the Presidency – that’s growing.” In that meeting Nixon asked how much money the indicated burglars would need. Dean tossed out a figure of a million dollars over the next two years. And according to Dean, Nixon said “We could get that.” And with that, Watergate moved into the cover-up of the cover-up phase, and ultimately to its ugly conclusion.

On March 23, Judge Sirica made public a letter he had received from James McCord a few days earlier. In the letter, McCord, the leader of the burglary team, said that political pressure had been applied to the defendants to plead guilty and remain silent, that perjury had occurred, that others had been involved with the operation who had not been identified in the trial, and that the operation was not a CIA operation. Sirica wrote about revealing the letter in open court to make it part of the trial record,

As I worked through them, an excruciating pain began to build directly in the center of my chest. It was nearly more than I could bear, but I couldn’t quit before the end of the letter. I finally finished the letter and quickly called for a recess. As I hurried off the bench, the reporters flooded toward the double swinging doors at the back of the courtroom. The dam had broken.

Indeed it had, and everything that followed was the just the system grinding towards its inevitable conclusion.

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Watergate: the cover-up begins

When individuals associated with Richard Nixon’s reelection campaign were arrested in the Watergate Office Building in the early hours of June 17 1972, the men around the President spent the next several days deciding how to respond. They were in a bind. Indeed, crimes had already been committed. The five men arrested in the attempt to bug the DNC offices, and the two men who led the team, Liddy and Hunt, would be convicted on charges related to the burglary and wiretapping. One of the charges John Mitchell would be convicted of was approving the wiretapping while still the Attorney General.

There was still a chance to prevent the scandal from becoming what it eventually ballooned into. The President and the people around him could’ve taken the political hit of having people associated with the campaign committing crimes in the name of political dirty tricks. The President could’ve been insulated from the men working for him. There was never any evidence that Nixon knew about the burglary before the fact. Others could’ve fallen on their swords.

But, with the election just five months away, that was the risk the President’s men did not want to take. They also knew that the burglary wasn’t the only operation the so-called Plumbers had been involved. The previous year the Plumbers broke into the office of the psychiatrist of Daniel Ellsberg, the man who leaked the Pentagon Papers.

In An American Life, Jeb Stuart Magruder, the deputy director of the Committee to Re-Elect the President (CRP), writes about the lack of discussion over whether to give birth to the maxim, the cover-up is worse than the crime.

My life changed that day. For the first time I realized, and I think we all realized, that we were involved in criminal activity, that if the truth became known we could all go to jail. During the spring, when Liddy was presenting his break-in plan, I should have been aware that it was illegal, but somehow it seemed acceptable, perhaps because we were discussing it in the office of the Attorney General of the United States. But at some point that Saturday morning I realized that this was not just hard-nosed politics, this was a crime that could destroy us all. The cover-up, this, was immediate and automatic; no one ever considered that there would not be a cover-up. It seemed inconceivable that with our political power we could not erase this mistake we had made.

At that point, LaRue (another deputy directory) was only marginally involved in the break-in conspiracy, in that he was aware of discussions of it, and Mardian (aide to Mitchell and counsel to CRP) was not to my knowledge involved at all. Either of them might have saved themselves great difficulty by walking away from the whole affair. That they did not was due to personal loyalty to Mitchell and political loyalty to the President. In all our discussions, there was a great deal said about “protecting the President.” We were trying to do that, certainly, but it was also true Mitchell and I hoped to save our own skins in the process. We were in so deep there seemed to be no turning back, no alternative but to plunge ahead, that is I wanted to go to the Justice Department and tell the prosecutors all I knew, I could probably walk away from the mess a free man. But that was never a serious consideration. My fellow conspirators were also my friends, and you didn’t save yourself at the expense of your friends.

The next day, Sunday, Magruder called White House Chief of Staff Haldeman, the man who had hired Magruder for the CRP. Magruder told him about the arrest.

We discussed the press statement we had drafted, but never released. McCord’s identity had by then become known, and we agree that a statement must be issued minimizing McCord’s ties with CRP. Later that day we issued a statement by Mitchell which stressed the fact that McCord was not technically and “employee” of CRP, since we contracted with his McCord Associates to handle security for CRP.

I told Haldeman of Mitchell’s plan to have Mardian return to Washington to take charge of the situation.

No, the President doesn’t trust Mardian,” Haldeman said. “You come back and take charge.”

It was a short talk. I gave him the facts and got my instructions. I spoke with the assumption that he knew about the break-in plan, and nothing he said indicated did not.

When I arrived at my office the next morning I stepped immediately into the double life I would live for the next ten months. On the one hand I spent much of the morning moving about our offices and reassuring CRP’s staff that nothing was wrong, that we had no idea what McCord had been up to, that the best thing was for everyone to get back to work.

The first person I talked to was Hugh Sloan, our treasurer. We knew by then that several thousand dollars in $100 bills had been found on the burglars. What we did not know, and I hoped Sloan could explain, was whether the money had come from CRP, and if so, is there was any way it could be traced to us. Sloan said the money found on the burglars was money he had given to Liddy, and that it could probably be traced to us.

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Watergate

50 years ago today, in the wee hours of that Saturday morning, Frank Wills was doing his rounds as a security guard at the Watergate Office Building when he noticed a door leading into the building from the underground parking garage had tape over the latch, preventing the lock from engaging. Wills simply removed the tape and thought nothing of it. However, some time later when Wills came around again, the tape had been put back. His suspicions now sufficiently aroused, Wills called the police, triggering the biggest political scandal in US history. When all was said and done, 48 people would be convicted, and Richard Nixon would resign as President.

Three officers responded and when searching the DNC’s offices on the sixth floor, they discovered five men: James McCord, Bernard Barker, Frank Sturgis, Virgilio Gonzalez and Eugenio Martínez. Unbeknownst at the time, watching this unfold from a hotel room across the street was Alfred Baldwin, a former FBI agent. Baldwin was the lookout but failed to notice the police arrive or that they were searching the DNC offices until it was too late.

The story that appeared in the Sunday Washington Post the next day about this seeming act of political hijinks described what they were carrying.

All wearing rubber surgical gloves, the five suspects were captured inside a small office within the committee’s headquarters suite.

Police said the men had with them at least two sophisticated devices capable of picking up and transmitting all talk, including telephone conversations. In addition, police found lock-picks and door jimmies, almost $2,300 in cash, most of it in $100 bills with the serial numbers in sequence.

The men also had with them one walkie-talkie, a short wave receiver that could pick up police calls, 40 rolls of unexposed film, two 35 millimeter cameras and three pen-sized tear gas guns.

This was actually a second break-in. The first had occurred May 28. This second attempt has made to repair some faulty equipment placed in the first break-in. The first thread to unravel was not so much what the burglars were doing in the DNC offices, but rather who they were, and who they knew.

The genesis of the break-ins was a few months earlier in January 1972 at a meeting with Liddy, Mitchell, Magruder and John Dean, the White House counsel. Liddy presented an extensive plan to gather intelligence for the campaign. Magruder had been hired by H.R. Haldeman, White House Chief of Staff. Magruder had wanted Dean at this meeting for cover from the White House.

James McCord was the security coordinator for the Committee to Re-elect the President, for my money the worst bit of political branding in history. This fundraising branch of the 1972 Nixon campaign for President became known as CREEP as the scandal unfolded. Watergate was born within the CRP, and many of its officers figurd prominently in the scandal. G. Gordon Liddy was finance counsel. Jeb Stuart Magruder was the deputy director. John Mitchell was still Attorney General at the time of this January meeting, but would retire two months later to become the director of the CRP. Other CRP names that won’t arise until later in our look back at Watergate are Herb Kalmbach, Fred LaRue, Don Segretti, Hugh Sloan and Maurice Stans.

Maybe of the people involved with Watergate wrote books about their experiences. In his book Blind Ambition, John Dean described Mitchell’s reaction to Liddy’s wild-eyed plan this way.

Liddy took his seat. The show was over. We all waited for Mitchell to react. I knew he was offended by the wilder parts of the act, but I also knew he would not say so to Liddy’s face. He disliked confronting people directly. It was a trait I had noticed in myself and felt was a weakness. Mitchell usually had other people express his blunt feelings.

Mitchell did not approve of Liddy’s plans. In his book An American Life, Magruder described Liddy’s presentation this way.

None of us were prepared for the nature of the plan that Liddy was outlining with such self-assurance. It was, as John Dean said later, mind boggling. It included mugging squads, kidnapping, sabotage, the use of prostitutes for political blackmail, break-ins to obtain and photograph documents, and various forms of electronic surveillance and wiretappings.

Yet Mitchell did not reject the entire plan, for we all felt there was a need for intelligence-gathering, and we were interested in the wiretapping aspects of the plan. Mitchell ended the meeting by telling Liddy he should come back with a less expensive plan that focused on intelligence-gathering and countering demonstrations.



Liddy worked with E. Howard Hunt, a former CIA officer, to put together the wiretapping operations. Hunt was a consultant for Chuck Colson, director of Nixon’s Office of Public Liaison. As others later surmised, if Hunt was involved, the White House was implicated. Hunt had been suggested to Liddy by Dick Howard, another Colson aide.

In a rather shocking breach of OpSec, Hunt’s name was in Barker and Martínez’s address books. On the 18th, Liddy called Magruder to inform him of the break-in. Magruder described the conversation this way.

‘Liddy, what the hell was McCord doing inside the Watergate?’ I demaned. ‘You were supposed to keep this operation removed from us. Have you lost your mind?’

‘I had to have somebody on the inside to handle the electrons,’ Liddy said. ‘McCord was the only one I could get. You didn’t give me enough time.’

I couldn’t believe it – Liddy was blaming his fiasco on me. But there was no point arguing with Liddy so I calmed down and asked him to give me all the facts he had. He explained that the four men arrested with McCord were Cuban freedom fighters whom Hunt had recruited in Miami. He said all five men had given false names when arrested, but we had to assume their true identities would be discovered.

Later that Saturday morning, Bob Woodward at the Washington Post got a call from the city editor about the break-in. The story linked to above was under the byline of Alfred Lewis, and in All the President’s Men, Woodward describes Lewis this way.

The first details of the story had been phoned from inside the Watergate by Alfred Lewis, a veteran of 35 years of police reporting for the Post. Lewis was something of a legend in Washington journalism – half cop, half reporter, a man who often dressed in a Metropolitan Police sweater buttoned at the bottom over a brass Star-of-David buckle.

Lewis told Woodward the men arrested were going to appear in court that afternoon at a prelimnary hearing. Woodward attended, and at the hearing McCord told Judge Belsen he worked in government for the CIA. Woodward uttered an expletive, and helped contribute to the Lewis story that appeared on the front page.


Next week we’ll take a look at other conversations that took place over the subsequent weekend, and how the scandal was seemingly contained.

This Great and Noble Undertaking

(this is an old D-Day piece of mine, I thought I’d share it with SitD in this 78th D-Day Anniversary…)

How many times have I heard an athlete praised for exhibiting courage? This kind of grandiloquence is especially prevalent in football.

Numerous awards throughout football list courage as one of the traits they recognize. It is said it takes courage for a player to play with injuries. It is said a quarterback displays courage in standing in to throw a pass knowing he is about to be knocked silly by a linebacker.

I would humbly suggest we ought to be more careful in the way we use certain words.

The film Saving Private Ryan is a visceral and brutal homage to the sacrifices made by so many young men in the service of their country.

Scenes at the beginning and end of the movie take place in the American cemetery near Colleville-sur-mer. The cemetery sits on the bluffs above Omaha Beach, looking down on what was Easy Red sector. The name was half right.

I visited this cemetery a few years ago. After leaving the bus, I passed through a protective ring of trees, and there came upon row after row of gleaming white crosses and Stars of David.

The grounds are immaculate. The hedges are neatly trimmed, the grass carefully clipped, the water in the reflecting pool clean. The serene beauty of that hallowed place is a seductive contrast to the unspeakable ugliness that laid those men in their graves.

I walked the peaceful paths, and looked down on the beautiful beach, and I thought what a debt we owe. So many of my fellow Americans went through such anguish and terror just to stand where I was standing then. And this cemetery represents only one corner of the war, the casualties from a few weeks of fighting in NW France. How many other cemeteries are there that hold the remains of soldiers who fought so I wouldn’t have to?

As the vivid colors of the present pale into shades of gray, as memories of the deeds of generations of American soldiers gently fade into the past, may we never take for granted the freedom we enjoy in this country. May we always remember the price so many paid for that freedom.

I don’t deny it takes willpower and discipline for a football player to play with pain. But the next time we hear such a performance described as courageous, remember what happened on a Norman beach that Tuesday morning in June 1944.

After hours at sea, thousands of young men climbed over the side of their transports, and in the pitching seas descended into the landing craft. When the boats reached the shore, the ramps went down, and the world those soldiers knew changed forever.

Many were shot down before they even left their boats. Many drowned in the ocean under the weight of their equipment. Machine guns, mortar shells, and German artillery turned Omaha Beach into a killing field. Bodies and pieces of bodies were everywhere. Those who saw Omaha later that day said they could almost walk across the beach without touching the sand.

But those who survived the initial hell made their way across the beach to take shelter at the seawall and beneath the cliffs. Wet, cold, many of them wounded, without a coherent command structure, the broken bodies of their comrades and brothers all around; those soldiers could have given up. They didn’t. In small groups they blew holes in the wire, made their way through minefields, climbed the bluffs and secured the beachhead.

That is courage.

Put another uh, what is it called, dime, that’s it, in the jukebox

Joe Biden is currently 79, and will be 80 in November. His slide into senescence continues untrammeled.

The latest ghost images coughed up by random firings of the remaining synapses in Biden’s cranium led him to claim he had been appointed to the Naval Academy. From the New York Post.

President Biden told graduating midshipmen at the Naval Academy Friday that he applied to the school in 1965 — but a quick check of his biography shows problems with the story.

Biden said he applied to Annapolis with a letter from then-Delaware Sen. J. Caleb Boggs, but the year he cited — 1965 — is the same year he graduated from the University of Delaware. The academy doesn’t offer graduate degrees.

Biden has a habit of seeking to relate to his audiences by sharing questionable anecdotes about his personal experiences — as well as making false or exaggerated claims.

In September, Biden told Jewish leaders that he remembered “spending time at” and “going to” the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh after the mass murder of 11 people in 2018. The synagogue said he never visited and the White House later said he was thinking about a 2019 phone call to the synagogue’s rabbi.

About two weeks later, Biden told an Idaho audience that his “first job offer” came from local lumber and wood products business Boise Cascade. The company said it was news to them and Biden had not previously described an interest in moving to the state.

In January, Biden told students of historically black colleges in Atlanta that he was arrested during civil rights protests — for which there also is no evidence.

In perhaps the most infamous example, Biden in 2020 claimed he “had the great honor of being arrested” in South Africa when he was “trying to get to see [Nelson Mandela] on Robbens [sic] Island,” where Mandela was in prison until 1990. He said Mandela thanked him for it. Later, Biden admitted that it was untrue.

Biden’s Mouth of Sauron claims not to have heard that part of the speech, and so couldn’t comment.

Ronald Reagan was just short of 78 when he left office after his second term.

In 1987 Don Henley wrote “The End of the Innocence” with Bruce Hornsby, and he included the line “they’re beating plowshares into swords, for this tired old man that we elected king,” a reference to Reagan.

I’m still waiting for Henley’s song about Biden.

Holding down the fort

Last week the Naming Commission released its “recommendations for Army installations named in commemoration of the Confederacy.”

Given today’s military, it shouldn’t be a surprise that political correctness and identity politics played a role. There are genuine heroes among the namesakes, but it’s likely not a mere accident that the list includes three women, three African-Americans and a Hispanic. No Asian-Americans though, must be racism.

This short-sighted process began with the erroneous notion that having a military facility named for someone who fought for the Confederacy indicates ipso facto an endorsement of slavery and racism. Take for instance Fort Bragg, named for Braxton Bragg.

Like many Confederate officers, Bragg attended West Point and served in the US Army. In 1918, the then Chief of Field Artillery, General William Snow, created an artillery training ground in North Carolina as part of a modernization effort. Snow, a Northerner from New York and New Jersey, in an obvious act of racism, named the facility Camp Bragg after the fellow artillery officer who was from North Carolina. Bragg was not a great Confederate general, and the Camp was named more for his service in the Mexican-American War.

In his last public speech, just days before he was assassinated, Abraham Lincoln made some remarks on reconstruction, and he said this about the wisdom of moving past the differences that had divided the nation.

We all agree that the seceded States, so called, are out of their proper relation with the Union; and that the sole object of the government, civil and military, in regard to those States is to again get them into that proper practical relation. I believe it is not only possible, but in fact, easier to do this, without deciding, or even considering, whether these States have ever been out of the Union, than with it. Finding themselves safely at home, it would be utterly immaterial whether they had ever been abroad. Let us all join in doing the acts necessary to restoring the proper practical relations between these States and the Union; and each forever after, innocently indulge his own opinion whether, in doing the acts, he brought the States from without, into the Union, or only gave them proper assistance, they never having been out of it.

The Civil War happened. It’s part of our history. Having military installations across the South, and named for Southerners, that are part of a once again unified country and military is an acknowledgement of that past and of the sacrifices made to make the Union possible again. Today, the South is the region as a whole with the strongest support of the military and of military service. The Commission may be inadvertently chipping away at the “proper practical relations” with the potential recruits it needs most.

The list, along with descriptions and stories of the individuals, is here.

Fort Moore

Fort Benning, Georgia
to be renamed in commemoration of
Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Julia Moore

Fort Liberty

Fort Bragg, North Carolina
to be renamed in commemoration of
the American value of Liberty

Fort Eisenhower

Fort Gordon, Georgia
to be renamed in commemoration of
General of the Army Dwight D. Eisenhower

Fort Walker

Fort A.P. Hill, Virginia
to be renamed in commemoration of
Dr. Mary Edwards Walker

Fort Cavazos

Fort Hood, Texas
to be renamed in commemoration of
Gen. Richard E. Cavazos

Fort Gregg-Adams

Fort Lee, Virginia
to be renamed in commemoration of
Lt. Gen. Arthur J. Gregg and Lt. Col. Charity Adams

Fort Barfoot

Fort Pickett, Virginia
to be renamed in commemoration of
Tech. Sgt. Van T. Barfoot

Fort Johnson

Fort Polk, Louisiana
to be renamed in commemoration of
Sgt. William Henry Johnson

Fort Novosel

Fort Rucker, Alabama
to be renamed in commemoration of CW4 Michael J. Novosel Sr.

There is a lot of ruin in a country, especially this one

There isn’t enough bad news in the world, so let’s toss another stack of troubles on the table, shall we.

At American Greatness, Adam Mill outlines the financial ruin headed our way.

The coming reckoning for Washington’s insanely irresponsible monetary policy may dwarf the troubles from all recent recessions and periods of inflation.

The Federal Reserve has created a doom loop between the housing market and inflation. For years it has printed tens of billions of dollars each month to buy sketchy securities meant to subsidize the housing market and favor bond traders. This continues even now, in spite of inflation and a red-hot housing market. But the housing market has become dependent on unearned, newly printed money, and stopping the flow might cause a catastrophic correction. If it doesn’t stop, however, inflation will explode.

Let me walk you through some of the math.

Inflation closes the gap between money earned and money spent. Since the financial crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve expanded M2 money supply from just under $8 trillion to around $22 trillion today. During that time GDP has increased from around $14.6 trillion to around $24.5 trillion today. We’ve gone from a ratio of one dollar chasing $2.20 in goods in services to an almost 1 to 1 ratio today. Inflation during the same period, according to the government, has eroded the dollar by a mere 33 percent.

You think 8 percent inflation is high? Prices need to double to restore any semblance of balance between currency and the things you can buy with currency. We have a long way to go.

Fortunately, his conclusion is even worse. Enjoy your holiday weekend!

To fight inflation, interest rates need to exceed the inflation rate. That means a dollar saved loses purchasing power unless savings interest rates climb from less than 1 percent to something over current inflation (now around 8 percent). One rule of thumb provides that savings interest rates should reach 150 percent of inflation in order to reverse the trend. The theory holds that high interest rates encourage saving cash thus slowing down the speed at which money chases assets. If interest rates are less than inflation, it makes holding cash a losing proposition.

But in this environment, raising interest rates will cause a cascade of problems. The higher interest rates will slow the economy and cause unemployment. It will also swallow up tax revenue as the government has to pay interest on its massive debt. But more critically, it will increase the rate of default on home mortgages. Those defaults will make mortgage-backed securities less valuable and more unpredictable. That’s how the 2008 housing market seized up.

Thus, the doom loop.

Alternatively, the Fed could just let inflation rip as it continues to pour gasoline on the fire. At this point, the latter scenario appears more likely as the Fed engages in half-hearted symbolic inflation-fighting measures. Not surprisingly, the inflation numbers get scarier and scarier. At some point, runaway inflation will force the Fed to take real action. One thing is certain: the longer it waits, the more it will hurt.

Closing the gap between money earned and money spent means cutting government spending, raising interest rates, reducing regulation, and lowering taxes. Government can and should facilitate increases in productivity by reducing its interference in every private transaction. More Americans get a check from the government than pay taxes. The labor participation rate is dangerously low. There just aren’t enough people pulling their weight to make the things needed to sop up all of this excess money.

The Pacific – a Chinese lake?

Awhile back we touched on the arrangement China has entered into with the Solomon Islands, a deal which has sparked concerns that perhaps China has an eye towards an increased presence in the Pacific.

Starting today, the Chinese Foreign Minister is beginning a visit to several Pacific Island nations. From China’s Foreign Ministry:

From May 26 to June 4, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi will pay official visits to eight countries, namely Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste, and a virtual visit to the Federated States of Micronesia upon invitation. He will also hold video conference with Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of the Cook Islands and Premier and Foreign Minister of Niue, and host the second China-Pacific Island Countries Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Fiji. 

Also today, the Chinese Foreign Minister met with his counterpart in the Solomons and outlined three principles behind their cooperation:

The first principle is to fully respect the national sovereignty of Solomon Islands. China-Solomon Islands cooperation is based on Solomon Islands’ needs and requirements, on the premise of Solomon Islands’ consent, and on the basis of equal consultation. It is never China’s foreign policy, nor is it Chinese style, to impose business deals on others, interfere in Solomon Islands’ internal affairs, or damage other countries’ interests.

The second one is to help maintain the social stability of Solomon Islands. China-Solomon Islands security cooperation includes assistance in maintaining social order, protecting lives and property in accordance with the law as well as conducting humanitarian relief and natural disaster response at the request of Solomon Islands. The aim is to help Solomon Islands strengthen police capacity-building, offset the security governance deficit and maintain domestic stability and long-lasting peace and security. China-Solomon Islands security cooperation is aboveboard and frank, not imposing on others, not targeting third parties and not intending to establish military bases.

The third one is in parallel with regional arrangements. China supports Pacific Island Countries in strengthening security cooperation and working together to address regional security challenges. China also supports the existing regional security cooperation arrangements. At the same time, China-Solomon Islands security cooperation and the existing regional arrangements complement each other, sharing the same objectives and interests. China-Solomon Islands security cooperation conforms to the common interests of Solomon Islands and the South Pacific region.


The last one is our topic for today. What “regional arrangements” are we talking about here? The AP provides some details on what China is up to:

Continue reading

Cloak conceals dagger


On Sunday, an IRGC Colonel, Hassan Sayad Khodai, was assassinated in broad daylight outside his home by two assailants on a motorcycle. There’s been no official claim of responsibility.

It’s a mystery why Khodai was targeted. It’s possible it was in retaliation for Khodai’s involvement in plots against Israeli officials. But, consider the history of high-profile assassinations inside Iran.

Between 2007 and 2012, five people associated with Iran’s nuclear program were assassinated in Iran. Several of these instances involved assailants on motorcycles. Another prominent figure, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the head of Iran’s atomic energy program, was assassinated in 2020. The complex operation involved smuggling in and assembling a remote-controlled gun.

A brazen Israeli intelligence operation in 2018 involving stealing thousands of documents related to Iran’s nuclear program from a secret warehouse in Tehran.

A Colonel doesn’t seem like a high enough profile target to risk such a daylight operation, especially if he isn’t involved with Iran’s nuclear program, the high profile, high risk target Israel is committed to spending valuable resources on.

If Israel was indeed behind it, clearly Israel has developed exceptional intelligence capabilities inside Iran. Who Israel works with is of course a closely guarded secret. Whether Israel smuggles in its own operatives, or works with natives such as the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK), is not known.

The war in the shadows continues apace.

The most valuable commodity will be corrugated tin for the roof of your hovel

Since we’ll all be living in Bidenvilles soon, it might be wise to develop some skills that our parents, grandparents and great-grandparents learned during the Great Depression for making do in times of want. Yes, we could just tax the rich and take all their money for ourselves, but between inflation and the stock market tanking, there won’t be any rich people.

-Instead of meat, use oats or beans or lentils
-In the absence of eggs and butter, vinegar and baking soda in breads and cakes
-Make your own soap and cleaning products
-Remember those Home Ec classes that just reinforced hateful gender norms? Take a few. Learning how to sew will come in handy.
-Remember how guns are scary? Learn to use them. Hunting will keep food on the table.
-Raise a few chickens in the backyard. You’ll thank me later.
-You’ll want to learn how to ride a horse, and hook one up to a buggy.

And don’t forget to plant that Victory Garden!

The black hole of Aghanistan

SIGAR (the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction) was established in 2008 to serve as an oversight body. It conducts audits of reconstruction projects and its mission is to look for waste and fraud.

In the wake of the collapse of the Afghan government last year, SIGAR was asked by Congress to look into the causes of the rapid collapse and today it issued an interim report. The text of the report is here.

Here is a summary of the conclusions.

SIGAR found that the single most important factor in the ANDSF’s collapse in August 2021 was the U.S. decision to withdraw military forces and contractors from Afghanistan through signing the U.S.-Taliban agreement in February 2020 under the Trump administration, followed by President Biden’s withdrawal announcement in April 2021. Due to the ANDSF’s dependency on U.S. military forces, these events destroyed ANDSF morale. The ANDSF had long relied on the U.S. military’s presence to protect against large-scale ANDSF losses, and Afghan troops saw the United States as a means of holding their government accountable for paying their salaries. The U.S.-Taliban agreement made it clear that this was no longer the case, resulting in a sense of abandonment within the ANDSF and the Afghan population. The agreement set in motion a series of events crucial to understanding the ANDSF’s collapse.

The report identifies “six factors that accelerated the ANDSF’s collapse in August 2021.”

1) U.S. decision to withdraw military forces and contractors from Afghanistan through signing the U.S.-Taliban agreement in February 2020 under the Trump administration, followed by President Biden’s withdrawal announcement in April 2021
2) the change in the U.S. military’s level of support to the ANDSF
3) the ANDSF never achieving self-sustainment
4) Afghan President Ashraf Ghani frequently changing ANDSF leaders and appointing loyalists
5) Afghan government’s failing to take responsibility for Afghan security through an implementation of a national security strategy
6) the Taliban’s military campaign effectively exploiting ANDSF weaknesses

In addition, the report identifies “nine factors that explain why, after 20 years and nearly $90 billion in U.S. security assistance, the ANDSF was ill-prepared to sustain security following a U.S. withdrawal”.

1) no country or agency had complete ownership of the ANDSF development mission,
2) the length of the U.S. commitment was disconnected from the reality of the time required to build an entire security sector
3) the U.S. created long-term dependencies that would require significant time to overcome, such as providing the ANDSF with advanced equipment they could not sustain and leaving them out of the equipping process
4) the U.S. military, driven by political deadlines, struggled to balance winning battles with letting the ANDSF gain experience by fighting on their own
5) U.S. metrics created to measure the development of the ANDSF were unable to effectively measure ANDSF capabilities
6) Afghan corruption harmed ANDSF capabilities and readiness
7) U.S. control of the battlespace and of key governance systems restricted Afghan ownership of important military and governance systems
8) U.S. and Afghan governments failed to develop a police force effective at providing justice
9) advisors were often ill-trained and inexperienced for their mission, and personnel rotations impeded institutional memory

SIGAR has been issuing quarterly reports and “lessons learned” reports as part of its mission. Last August, SIGAR issued one of these “lessons learned” reports, the text is here, and this is from the executive summary.

The U.S. government has now spent 20 years and $145 billion trying to rebuild Afghanistan, its security forces, civilian government institutions, economy, and civil society. The Department of Defense (DOD) has also spent $837 billion on warfighting, during which 2,443 American troops and 1,144 allied troops have been killed and 20,666 U.S. troops injured. Afghans, meanwhile, have faced an even greater toll. At least 66,000 Afghan troops have been killed. More than 48,000 Afghan civilians have been killed, and at least 75,000 have been injured since 2001—both likely significant underestimations.

What, really, do we have to show for all that blood and treasure? Will anyone be held accountable, even if it’s only at the ballot box? If the American people don’t have the fortitude to hold their leaders accountable, we shouldn’t hold out hope that said leaders will hold themselves accountable.

Bridge over the River Why??

While American power abroad slowly erodes, it’s good to know our society is girding its loins to fight the true enemy.

Three students at a Wisconsin middle school are facing allegations of sexual harassment under Title IX after they repeatedly refused to use “they/them” pronouns when addressing a fellow student.

Attorneys for the Wisconsin Institute of Law and Liberty demanded that the Kiel Area School District stop the Title IX investigation into the three male students at Kiel Middle School.

“The complaint against these boys, and the District’s ongoing investigation, are wholly inappropriate and should be immediately dismissed,” the institute wrote in a letter to administrators. “The mere use of biologically correct pronouns not only does not constitute sexual harassment under Title IX or the District’s own policy, it is also speech protected by the First Amendment.”

The letter from the WILL is here.

We represent the families of three eighth grade boys (and the boys themselves) who the District recently charged with sexual harassment under Title IX for “mispronouning.” The District’s position appears to be that using what the District calls “incorrect pronouns” “after being informed that a student’s preferred pronouns were ‘they/them’’’ automatically constitutes punishable sexual harassment under Title IX.

The complaint against these boys, and the District’s ongoing investigation, are wholly inappropriate and should be immediately dismissed. The mere use of biologically correct pronouns not only does not constitute sexual harassment under Title IX or the District’s own policy, it is also speech protected by the First Amendment. The District has also violated Title IX procedures and its own policy in its handling of the complaint. The District should promptly end the investigation, dismiss the complaints, and remove them from each of the boys’ records.

“Mispronouning” is also not sexual harassment under Title IX because gender identity is not included within the definition of sex within Title IX. In fact, the Department of Education is currently attempting to amend Title IX to add it. And none of the “other conduct” described in the statement from the music teacher (which the families of the boys eventually received with the Title IX complaint) comes remotely close to sexual harassment. The statement even acknowledges that the whole class “expressed frustration with remembering pronouns.”

It’s hard to have a society when half the country wants to take a chainsaw to it.

A good defense is a good defense

The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission was established to “review the national security implications of trade and economic ties between the United States and the People’s Republic of China”.

Last week they held a day-long hearing with eleven witnesses on “China’s Activities and Influence in South and Central Asia.” Topics included China’s Interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan, China’s Reach in Central Asia, China’s Influence in Continental South Asia, and Competing Visions for the Indian Ocean.

As part of the latter, Christopher K. Colley outlined China’s naval goals, especially as they apply to the Indian Ocean, saying “the American navy is the driving force behind China’s security concerns in the IOR.” Written testimony is here.

The greatest structural change in the Chinese navy in terms of strategy and tactics is the transformation of a navy based on regional defense and access denial, to a force that is firmly inline with power projection and blue water capabilities. Such an evolution is a conscience decision by the top levels of the Chinese government to build a navy that has the ability to project sustained and meaningful power to locations thousands of miles from Chinese home ports. This transformation is one of the most critical developments in the security architecture of the Twenty-First Century.

Last week, before a full committee hearing of the House Armed Services Committee, Adm Gilday, Chief of Naval Operation, spoke about the growing strength of China’s navy. Written testimony is here.

Over the past two decades, the PRC has built a comprehensive sea-denial, anti-access system of sophisticated sensors and long-range precision weapons. Backed by a robust industrial base and the largest shipbuilding infrastructure in the world, the PRC has extensively modernized its military and tripled the size of the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN). It is also building next-generation strategic missile submarines, erecting hundreds of new missile silos, and growing its cyber and space capabilities.

Under the cover of this anti-access umbrella, the PRC has embraced the use of “gray zone” activities to turn incremental gains into long-term strategic advantages. Using a multi-layered fleet of naval ships, maritime militia, and coast guard, the PRC is undermining international norms by staking illegal maritime claims, militarizing geographic features in the South and East China Seas, and intimidating its neighbors regarding offshore resources. Additionally, the PRC is extending its global reach with its Belt and Road Initiative—leveraging predatory lending practices, aggressive mercantilism backed, and hard military power—to access critical maritime terrain, ports, and waterways.

Given China’s increased strength, Adm Gilday also tried to explain why the US Navy planned to scrap nine warships, some less than three years old.

“I refuse to put an additional dollar against a system that would not be able to track a high-end submarine in today’s environment,” Gilday told the committee. He said the main reason for the early retirement was that the anti-submarine warfare system on the ships “did not work out technically.” The decommissioning of the ships would save the Navy approximately $391 million, according to the service’s proposed FY23 budget. But that recoups only a fraction of the cost of the nine littoral combat ships, which totaled about $3.2 billion.

The arcs of Chinese and US naval strengths are heading in the wrong directions. As Conrad Crane writes about here, America’s ability to fight a major conflict, let alone two at the same time, for the first time in a long time can be questioned. Part of Russia’s strategic mistake in going into Ukraine is it revealed how weak Russia’s military really is. How long before someone decides to test how strong the US is these days?

The music of the spheres

And to my listening ears
All nature sings, and round me rings
The music of the spheres

-This Is My Father’s World, hymn

Music is mathematical. You hear it instantly when a talented musician opens their mouth to sing, or when they play their instrument. Our brains recognize the consonance when notes are played within the same key. That is because the frequencies of notes in the scale form integer ratios.

Octaves are a 2:1 ratio, thirds are 3:2, fourths are 4:3 and so forth. These combinations of notes are pleasing to the ear.

Integer ratios don’t occur by chance in random noise. We instinctively respond to the intent behind the notes, the intelligence that deliberately put the notes together in that order.

Our brains are wired to look for patterns, though. Even when we hear seemingly random noise, such as these radio emissions from around Jupiter, we can’t help but go looking for those integer ratios and the notes behind them.


But, while Nature may not play the same notes that Bach knew, integers have a surprising way of popping up in nature, if we know where to look.

The Fibonacci Sequence appears often where a swirl is present, such as in the pattern of a snail’s shell, or spiral galaxies, or arrangement of seeds in a plant.

Integers are also found in something called orbital resonance. This is where two satellites have orbital periods that form integer relationships. For instance, the Earth and Moon have a 1:1 relationship. The Moon spins once on its axis for every trip around the Earth. (This is why one side of the Moon always faces the Earth.) Pluto and Neptune have a 2:3 relationship. Heading back to Jupiter, the moons Ganymede, Europa and Io have a 1:2:4 relationship. It’s not exactly magic, it just turns out that these are gravitationally stable orbits.

The heavens sang again last night. It was quite a performance, though, perhaps not surprisingly, not a random one. The interval between successive lunar eclipses can be 1, 5 or 6 lunar months. The music of the spheres indeed. Bravo to the Composer.



Russia and Ukraine

Last year Vladimir Putin authored this paper arguing that “that Russians and Ukrainians were one people.” The paper looks back at the historical commonalities between Russia and present-day Ukraine, starting with the Kievan Rus, a federation formed in the 9th century of Slavic people but ruled by the Varangian, people of Norse (Viking) descent.

Putin emphasizes that the people of the Kievan Rus shared a common language and, with the baptism of Vladimir in the 10th century, which Putin mentions, a common religion in the Orthodox Church. With this conversion, the Kievan Rus developed strong ties with the Byzantine Empire. Many Varangians served Byzantine emperors. (One of them, Harald Sigurdsson, was defeated by Harold Godwinson at the Battle of Stamford Bridge in September 1066, just a few weeks before Harold was defeated by the Normans at Hastings.)

The unity of Kievan Rus began to unravel in the 11th century, related in part to the decline of the Byzantine Empire, which in turn was related to the rise of the Turks. Putin specifically points to the Mongols, though, which devastated the region in the 13th century. Putin does not mention the 4th Crusade in 1204 which greatly weakened the Byzantine Empire even further.

From there, Putin traces the rise of the Catholic Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the pressure that put on what is now Ukraine, sandwiched between the Catholics and the descendants of the Rus now centered farther to the east.

The 17th century saw the rise of the Cossacks who carved out a state by rebelling against the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the century saw considerable conflict between Poland, the Cossacks, the Russians and the Ottomans. Putin describes this conflict as a desire to maintain the Orthodox Church in the face of Polish opposition. Putin even uses the phrase “war of liberation.”

Ukrainians refer to this time as “The Ruin,” which is an indication of what they think of instability the conflict brought to the region. The conflict came to an end with the Truce of Andrusovo of 1667 and later the Treaty of Perpetual Peace in 1686. The result was Kiev and the “left bank” (which was actually the lands east of the Dnieper) were transferred to Moscow. On the “right bank”, ie west of the Dnieper, still held by Poland, Putin says “social and religious oppression intensified.”

Over the next two centuries, Putin says Polish influences fomented the stirrings of Ukrainian nationalism, and this in turn was used by the Austrian-Hungarian Empire in the World War I era. The chaos brought about by the Russian Civil War (see First Ringer’s recent post too) led to a declaration of independence in Ukraine. Putin says this “decision proved fatal for the ruling regime in Kiev.” Putin is not sympathetic.

Therefore, modern Ukraine is entirely the product of the Soviet era. We know and remember well that it was shaped – for a significant part – on the lands of historical Russia. To make sure of that, it is enough to look at the boundaries of the lands reunited with the Russian state in the 17th century and the territory of the Ukrainian SSR when it left the Soviet Union.

The Bolsheviks treated the Russian people as inexhaustible material for their social experiments. They dreamt of a world revolution that would wipe out national states. That is why they were so generous in drawing borders and bestowing territorial gifts. It is no longer important what exactly the idea of the Bolshevik leaders who were chopping the country into pieces was. We can disagree about minor details, background and logics behind certain decisions. One fact is crystal clear: Russia was robbed, indeed.

Putin’s argument throughout his paper is to emphasize the close ties in language, culture and religion between the people of Russia and Ukraine. He indicates that where there was separation between the two, the people who valued these close ties were not given a choice in the matter.

He goes on for a few paragraphs decrying this lack of choice, and he ends with this.

I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia. Our spiritual, human and civilizational ties formed for centuries and have their origins in the same sources, they have been hardened by common trials, achievements and victories. Our kinship has been transmitted from generation to generation. It is in the hearts and the memory of people living in modern Russia and Ukraine, in the blood ties that unite millions of our families. Together we have always been and will be many times stronger and more successful. For we are one people.

Today, these words may be perceived by some people with hostility. They can be interpreted in many possible ways. Yet, many people will hear me. And I will say one thing – Russia has never been and will never be ”anti-Ukraine“. And what Ukraine will be – it is up to its citizens to decide.

I don’t doubt that Putin does not think of Ukraine as a separate nation, with its own history and heritage apart from Russia’s own. But, Putin’s paper is conspicuous in its lack of acknowledgement that the Ukrainian independence movement in 1990 was a choice, as was the Orange Revolution of 2004. He instead continues to focus on how “the most despicable thing is that the Russians in Ukraine are being forced not only to deny their roots, generations of their ancestors but also to believe that Russia is their enemy.” He also reiterates that “Our spiritual unity has also been attacked,” as the Ukrainian Orthodox Church maintains a separation from the Russian Orthodox Church.

And yet, even if Putin truly believes that by invading Ukraine he is merely standing up for these Russians who want to maintain their historical ties to Russia, Putin is ignoring the fact that many people in Ukraine have looked to the wealth to the west, the oppression and poverty to the east, and have made their choice. Bombing them is only hardening them against Russia.

Columns I Didn’t Finish

from Lynn Stuart Parramore, “cultural historian”…

Should conservatives on the Supreme Court strike down Roe v. Wade, they still won’t be able to blot out human nature and human history. They will just make life more dangerous and precarious for women in America today. Some refer to GOP politics as “medieval.” That’s an insult to medieval people — many of whom understood women’s reproductive and family planning needs far better than Justice Alito.

Click.

(ok, I cheated, I did make it to the end of the column to get to that paragraph, but only to save you from having to do it…)