Success Is Not An Option
By Mitch Berg
It would appear the only real option in Afghanistan at the moment is picking the type of failure we want to shoot for…
…while remembering that many Afghans who worked for us and are in mortal danger are hiding out (and nationwide), and many Americans – read “potential hostages” – are “sheltering in place” as well, in Kabul.
It would appear our options are:
- Dunkirk, if we’re very lucky
- Stalingrad – the German version – if we’re not
- Mogadishu, to one degree or another – potentially leading to “Teheran, 1979” in the bargain.
Securing an urban corridor through a hostile semi-guerrilla army to try to evacuate not only thousands of civilians, but themselves, from a single-strip airport that can potentially be rocketed out of business at the drop of a hat?
Which would subject the US to a choice between:
- A humiiliating extended hostage crisis that’d make Iran in 1980 look like an episode of The Waltons, at the very best.
- Bringing in a whooooole lot of air power to blast the paratroopers out of the jam, and hope they can save anyone at all.
“Build Back Better” indeed.
August 18th, 2021 at 6:16 am
This situation is so bad (as described) that not even Kamala wants any part of it.
August 18th, 2021 at 6:19 am
I’d sure hate to be a local who worked with us. Or a woman. Or a Jew. Or a Christian. Or a homosexual.
Think they purged the hard drives on the computers? Think they took some key parts out of our vehicles, planes, equipment before this happened?
August 18th, 2021 at 6:23 am
https://www.foxnews.com/world/taliban-collect-ammo-guns-from-civilians-after-takeover-report
First thing you do, take the guns.
August 18th, 2021 at 6:57 am
The Tali are not being threatened; they have secured a huge stockpile of arms, vehicles and now have air power. The have grabbed the brass ring.
They know they cannot win a protracted battle against the US Army and Marines. The top level dudes from the former government and military have grabbed their loot and scooted already…so what would motivate them to attack; a few hundred Afghan collaborators?
Nah. Those guys are fanatical, but they’re not stupid. They’ll sit back and watch their enemies run off like whipped dogs.
August 18th, 2021 at 6:58 am
I love the smell of moderation in the morning.
August 18th, 2021 at 7:03 am
If people had any doubts that Sleepy Joe would serve only one term, they should be gone. Good gracious, CNN is fact checking Biden’s assertions that the Afghans had an army of 300K. Turns out, not exactly. Now that the Covid fear mongering machine is turned to 11, Biden ends up serving crap sandwiches. Orange Man is gone and they can’t get much traction blaming DeSantis or Sturgis for the increase in positive tests. Distinct from actual disease of course.
August 18th, 2021 at 7:25 am
Surrender Back Better
August 18th, 2021 at 7:50 am
I think it’s fair to say — the rifles don’t beat planes and tanks meme is dead.
Apart from the pursuit of UBL in 2001, the US mission in Afghan never made strategic sense. The subsequent twenty years of coalition occupation was a case of misguided sunken investment. Turns out, Biden has bigger balls than either Obama or the neocons and chicken hawks.
August 18th, 2021 at 7:53 am
Emery loves him some medieval bloodletting!
August 18th, 2021 at 7:54 am
rns out, Biden has bigger balls
Well, no. A bigger chin to lead with, perhaps. A less-deserved swollen ego? I could go with that.
August 18th, 2021 at 8:08 am
What is the opposite of “Success has a thousand fathers”?
“The Afghan government and leadership has to come together,” he said. “They have the capacity. They have the forces. They have the equipment. The question is: Will they do it?”
The answer was a resounding no. Now, national security agencies in the Biden administration are awash in recriminations and finger-pointing, as officials seek to explain why America’s longest war ended in not only defeat, but chaos. One theme that emerged from a series of interviews: There is plenty of blame to go around.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/cia-warned-rapid-afghanistan-collapse-so-why-did-u-s-n1277026
August 18th, 2021 at 8:13 am
MBerg: Biden gets what Trump claimed to get — American foreign policy should be foremost about American strategic interests, not abstract ideals or nation building or human rights abroad.
This is a failure of strategy. There was never a long term strategy backed by world leaders or multilateral organizations such as the UN or NATO. No one has ever appeared to learn lessons from 1842, 1880 or the Soviet catastrophe of the 1980s. If we had, we probably would not have gone back in 2006.
In 2002 the job was, arguably, finished.
Biden just fast forwarded the inevitable.
August 18th, 2021 at 8:31 am
Few people are arguing the US should have stayed in Afghanistan forever.
Most of us are arguing we should have left in an orderly withdrawal instead of a rout. The responsibility for that falls squarely on The Garden Administration.
As to rifles and tanks, not true. The problem isn’t the hardware, it’s the willingness to use it. Politicians did not permit American military commanders to use their hardware on Afghans and Pakis but politicians will order our military to use their hardware on American citizens. Since our highest military commanders are all butt-kissing parade generals in high heels, they’ll salute smartly and give the order to kill domestic terrorists and insurrectionists aka anybody who doesn’t kowtow to The Narrative. We need to arm up and stockpile ammunition, now more than ever. We need to become ungovernable, unconquerable, Afghanis.
August 18th, 2021 at 8:33 am
The blame for this worse-than-Saigon moment, as far as the media is concerned, is that the intelligence agencies, the military, and the state department weren’t coordinated and were sometimes working at cross purposes.
If only there had been someone, let’s call him a “chief executive,” who was theoretically in charge of all the soldiers, diplomats, and spies, with the power and the savvy to coordinate their efforts!
Last October, Biden told Oprah “My son Hunter is the smartest guy I know.” Can we put Hunter Biden in charge of the country? At this point, it couldn’t hurt.
August 18th, 2021 at 8:36 am
I just hope that this crisis is over soon, so Milley & Austin can resume the much more importatnt work of smoking out all the Trump supporters in the US military.
August 18th, 2021 at 8:54 am
It is quite frankly shocking to see Emery describing a case where Biden has left over ten thousand Americans at the mercy of the Taliban, has enabled the rapes of tens of thousands of Afghan girls and boys, has provided a huge cache of weapons to the Taliban and the Russiand and Chinese for reverse engineering, and has allowed Afghanistan to once again become a haven for terrorist training and operations, as somehow the President having “balls.”
Closer to reality would be that Biden is showing himself to be qualified to be a harem attendant. Emery, I understand differences of opinion about the mission and its goals, but pulling this idiot stunt ought to transcend partisan politics.
August 18th, 2021 at 8:54 am
I no longer feel safe to be an American abroad. The times of feeling secure that marines will come to the rescue are over. Bidon does not give a shit about American citizens – America Last and Lost indeed. As much as it pains me, it is time to renew my Canukian passport.
August 18th, 2021 at 8:55 am
^ Comfortable there Armchair General?
Time to go outside.
August 18th, 2021 at 9:06 am
Intelligence Warned of Afghan Military Collapse, Despite Biden’s Assurances
Even as the president was telling the public that Kabul was unlikely to fall, intelligence assessments painted a grimmer picture.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/us/politics/afghanistan-biden-administration.html
Looks like the establishment media has decided that this is a Biden failure.
I told you all long ago that Biden was a brain damaged, 3rd rate (if that) intellect.
Did you hear how he sounded on Monday? Slrring his speech, mispronouncing common words?
August 18th, 2021 at 9:08 am
The bar for “armchair general” seems pretty low when all you need to know how to do is tell success from abject failure.
August 18th, 2021 at 9:18 am
Every press conference given by Biden and the members of his administration should begin with reporters asking a series of questions about the rainbow flag the Kabul embassy flew daily in June. What happened to it? Is it safe? Would it be possible for a team of LGBTQ+ commandos to put on iron man suits and fly in and hoist it, once again, over the ransacked ruins of the American embassy in Kabul?
Cuz that would show them what America is made of!
August 18th, 2021 at 9:24 am
Biden on July 4 this year: “Today, we’re closer than ever to declaring our independence from a deadly virus”
Biden, July 8 this year: “There’s going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of a embassy in the — of the United States from Afghanistan. It is not at all comparable [to Vietnam],The likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”
August 18th, 2021 at 9:34 am
Military officials have said that for weeks they urged the State Department to move faster in evacuating its diplomatic personnel. State Department officials have said they were operating based on intelligence assessments that suggested they had more time, but intelligence officials insist that they had long reported the possibility of a rapid Taliban takeover.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/politics/biden-afghanistan-blame-shifting/index.html
Wouldn’t it be great if Biden took his job as seriously as Trump did?
August 18th, 2021 at 9:41 am
Yes — because it was an abysmal failure of a decades long war. Of course the withdrawal is worse.
August 18th, 2021 at 9:47 am
Wouldn’t it be great if Biden took his job [seriously]
Oh, but MP, he does. There’s ice cream to taste and children to snuggle with, money to dole out in huge buckets to friends and family, papers to sign authorizing the wanton destruction of the rest of America (Governor Lepetomane ain’t got nothing our Joe), and Matlock. Matlock with a pudding cup.
August 18th, 2021 at 9:56 am
The biggest unforced error was abandoning Bagram. They did this in the dead of night, literally in the dead of night, at 3:30 AM.
And they didn’t mention it to the allied Afghans in Bagram.
I imagine that shook their moral a bit. Probably why the remaining Afghan forces immediately surrendered and gave all that valuable American war gear to the Taliban. I also imagine it made local authorities in Taiwan, Okinawa, etc., do a quick check to make certain we had not abandoned them as well. After all, with crazy Joe at the tiller, who can count on anythng?
The next unforced error was Biden and other administration going on the media to say that this was nothing like a “Saigon moment” when of course was a Saigon moment. Made them all look like idiots, and it turned even the reliably left wing press against the Biden administration.
Over all the problem has been a lack of leadership from Biden.
He went on vacation just as the crisis began (as did his press secretary!). He returned only when forced to, gave a peevish 15 minute speech blaming our allies for the crisis, then went back on vacation.
Loved that pic of Biden, sitting alone in the “war room” at Camp David, taking in a Zoom meeting with all of the attendees and their locations clearly visible.
I guess the special Biden brand of stupid is contagious.
August 18th, 2021 at 9:57 am
The taliban commanders who took over Kabul have issued a pic of them walking around enjoying ice cream cones. Best troll ever, almost Trump like!
August 18th, 2021 at 10:01 am
… oh, and wait, now that the bloom is off the rose of the US military’s reputation, expect an attack on Taiwan (from China, Emery). Then there’ll be lots of work to do. A massive diplomatic campaign with hands-on-hips and The Serious Face and a really energetic Twitter hashtag campaign. Man, it’ll be exhausting. Two pudding cups!
August 18th, 2021 at 10:01 am
Think of those poor bastards dropping from the landing gear of the plane leaving Kabul the next time ol’ “Slow Joe” lectures Americans about what American values are.
August 18th, 2021 at 10:02 am
Loved that pic of Biden, sitting alone in the “war room” at Camp David, taking in a Zoom meeting with all of the attendees and their locations clearly visible.
One of those attendees was the formerly secret base at Doha.
August 18th, 2021 at 10:04 am
jdm on August 18, 2021 at 10:01 am said:
… oh, and wait, now that the bloom is off the rose of the US military’s reputation, expect an attack on Taiwan (from China, Emery).
Shit, at this point probably even the Tongans are planning to invade Taiwan. Who is going to stop them? Us?
August 18th, 2021 at 10:15 am
The Taliban are no more a cohesive unit than the previous government. The leadership the Taliban install will have nominal control over the country. In reality it will be local commanders that decide what will and will not be implemented in their area. The only thing that binds the Taliban together is a misshapen interpretation of Islam.
The Taliban will however hold sway because for decades local villagers have been faced with a foreign-imposed central government dominated by violent warlords and corrupt politicians. Most Afghans have never had access to decent education, health services or the rule of law. Outside the cities, women have always been oppressed. For most Afghans, Taliban rule will, unfortunately, not feel significantly different from the previous government. Opposing the Taliban will however result in losing ones head and therefore the Taliban will hold sway.
Afghanistan will therefore be run by a patchwork of local Taliban commanders (and some warlords that will make peace with the Taliban). A weak central government will present themselves as the external face of the administration. This government may indeed make promises regarding human rights or civil liberties but they know they will be powerless to implement them.
Sadly there is no good outcome for the Country.
August 18th, 2021 at 10:20 am
I am a proponent of the idea of “fractal stupidity.” It means stupudity at all scales of a structure. It would be the opposite of “geometric stupidity.” Geometric stupidity would be if you took your car in for an oil change, and they forgot to tighten the drain bolt and damaged your image. Single cause, single effect.
Fractal stupidity is stupidity made up of more stupidity. Its stupid at every level! And you never know what disaster will occurr because the stupidity can manifest in infinite unpredictable ways, like one of those fractal images.
August 18th, 2021 at 10:26 am
Take the current president, for example.
Sure, he is an idiot, but it’s not just him.
Biden’s SecDef thinks the military’s biggest problem isn’t 10,000 stuck behind enemy lines in Afghanistan, he thinks it is Trump supporters in the ranks.
Biden’s Cahairman of the joint chiefs of staff thinks that “white privilege” in the military is a bigger problem than, say, losing a war.
Biden’s press secretary goes on vacation on the day we lose that war.
Biden won’t return to the White House because his wife won’t let him.
It’s fractal stupidity — it goes all the way to the bottom. Any part of the whole contains as much stupidity as the complete system.
August 18th, 2021 at 10:50 am
^ It didn’t help that from 2017-2021 we had a US president who was himself deeply corrupt — and who surrounded himself with officials who enabled him and emulated him.
But the US move to freeze Afghan government assets held in US was a good one. Gives us leverage and limits opportunity for looting.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-halted-dollar-shipments-to-afghanistan-to-keep-cash-out-of-talibans-hands-11629233621
August 18th, 2021 at 10:54 am
I suppose Biden is digging through Trump’s presidential papers now, looking for something on Afghanistan he can plagiarize.
It’s just sad.
August 18th, 2021 at 11:28 am
Woolly’s Biden Derangement Syndrome aside — I would have started with “20 Year Bush/Cheney War Ended By President Biden”
August 18th, 2021 at 11:38 am
Maybe Jimmy Carter has some ideas about a secret mission to rescue American hostages?
August 18th, 2021 at 12:00 pm
The E-fellows at 10:15, tl;dr, my summary:
Those heretics have always been ignorant savages. Forget ’em. America First!
August 18th, 2021 at 12:17 pm
Of course the withdrawal is worse.
Comical that Emery characterizes leaving Bagram in the middle of the night, and airlifting embassy personnel to the airport is a “withdrawal”.
August 18th, 2021 at 12:18 pm
Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staffs Mark Milley, July 14, 2021:
“Our vital national interest in Afghanistan remains the same, to deny safe haven to terrorist threats against our homeland. We are and will always remain prepared to protect America for terrorist threats.”
https://www.jcs.mil/Media/News/News-Display/Article/2694393/gen-milley-statement-on-mission-in-afghanistan-welcomes-back-gen-miller/
It don’t seem like he knew that it was inevitable that the complete take over of Afghanistan by the taliban was just a month away.
August 18th, 2021 at 12:20 pm
who surrounded himself with officials who enabled him and emulated him.
Ridiculous statement. Show me a president that didn’t surround himself with people who could execute his vision. One man’s “adviser” is another man’s sycophant.
August 18th, 2021 at 12:21 pm
Austin Bay:
It didn’t have to be this way. A well-executed withdrawal would have saved their lives and perhaps saved the anti-Taliban government. The acronym is NEO — Noncombatant Evacuation Operation — “the departure of civilian noncombatants and nonessential military personnel from danger in an overseas country to a designated safe haven … ”
The U.S. military is highly skilled at NEO. Even a NEO involving an area as large as Afghanistan could have been planned and prepared in 30 to 45 days if the Joint Chiefs of Staff had coordinating power and the State Department arranged for temporary refugee housing in third-country safe havens. The decision to withdraw from the huge air base at Bagram was utterly stupid, at least until threatened Afghans were extracted.
President Joe Biden gave his withdrawal speech on April 14. There was time. Incompetent, arrogant and oblivious White House leadership compounded by obscenely bad interagency planning created the horror we witness and the slaughter to be.
August 18th, 2021 at 12:23 pm
Woolly’s Biden Derangement Syndrome aside
This is rich coming from the individual who brings Trump up in just about every thread. If Trump ever fell on hard times, he needn’t ever worry about the CDC’s eviction moratorium expiring when he lives rent-free in Emery’s head.
August 18th, 2021 at 12:42 pm
It is pretty funny reading references to someone else’s derangement coming from someone who’s priorities are obviously (a) huffing paint, and (b) blaming Trump.
August 18th, 2021 at 12:47 pm
Biden, Milley and Austin just got their asses handed to them by low rent scum that have sex with goats.
And Emery, you pathetic loser, you are the biggest armchair general EVER. Stay in your mommy’s basement, loser.
August 18th, 2021 at 1:41 pm
c’mon guys! removing troops first, during a withdrawal, before American citizens, is the right thing to do! The moral thing to do. Because, it had to be done and done now, with balls.
August 18th, 2021 at 1:57 pm
“ ‘There is no help here’: US puts just 100 passengers on Afghanistan evacuation planes that can take 600 as stranded Americans say they can’t get to airport and Taliban becomes more violent”.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9904833/Pentagon-press-briefing-disastrous-Afghanistan-rescue-mission.html
August 18th, 2021 at 2:24 pm
Time to focus on our own domestic Right Wing Terrorism..
August 18th, 2021 at 2:29 pm
I hope that if DeSantis wins in 2024, he does the housecleaning that Trump neglected to do.
#1) Every White House political staffer that is employed for any other reason than maintenance/dining services? Gone.
#2) STRONG vetting of all current military leadership. In a position of leadership high enough that your placement required approval by Obama, Biden, and/or their cabinets? GONE!
#3) US Attorneys? GONE!
No one is indispensible.
Ignore the trails of tears, wailing and gnashing of teeth by the establishment/leftists.