Joe Doakes from Como Park emails:

Poll says Americans would welcome 100,000 refugees from Ukraine. Sounds generous, not?

But why so few? Experts estimate 4 million Ukrainian refugees have fled the country since Russia invaded. Why aren’t we taking more?

As I pointed out here, we take in 200,000 illegal aliens across the Southern Border EVERY MONTH and nobody says a word about it.

I wonder what the polls would say if Americans understood the numbers?

Joe Doakes

Another question: I wonder what it would take to make Americans understand the numbers?

Russia is spending a fortune in Ukraine, perhaps as much as $20 billion a day. In turn though, Europe is sending hundreds of millions of euros a day to Russia for hydrocarbons. Putting sanctions on Russia while funding Russia is not a comfortable position. So, the EU is contemplating phasing out its dependence on Russian, and that might have enormous implications for Russia’s economy.

Maximilian Hess of the Foreign Policy Research Institute looks at some of those implications:

On April 29, Russia’s finance ministry announced that it would pay some $650m to foreign creditors on two overdue Eurobonds. And by making the payments before the bonds’ grace period expired on May 4, the Kremlin has avoided falling into sovereign default.

Ahead of the bond’s formal maturity on April 4, the Kremlin announced that it would buy back the bonds in roubles – and pay those who refused to accept the rouble buy-back as well. Nearly 75 percent of bondholders (almost certainly all domestic) agreed to the new terms .

Russia’s recent decision to pay the bonds in foreign currency enabled it to avoid the all-but-guaranteed acceleration of other debts and lawsuits that would have followed a default and further impoverished the Russian people.

However, the move also left the Kremlin in a position of extreme hypocrisy and embarrassment. In the end, what Putin did was to repay domestic bondholders with roubles, which they cannot convert freely into hard currency to spend abroad. And pay foreign holders in full, in dollars – hardly a feat worthy of praise.
…
In case there is any doubt just how exposed the shipping sector is to Western sanctions, one just needs to look to the actions of Russian state-owned shipping company Sovcomflot. On May 3 specialist maritime industry publication Lloyd’s List revealed that Sovcomflot was looking to sell at least 40 ships from its 121 ship fleet before wind-down authorisations expire and it becomes fully sanctioned on May 15.

If Sovcomflot fails to raise enough cash to honour its debts before then, it will fall into default and creditors will go after its ships. Just like the Russian state, Russian businesses are still fearful of defaulting on Western creditors – even amid a war.

This podcast from the ICG takes a look at something that’s not often on the front pages, and that is Russia’s aims in Africa.

Over recent years, Moscow has bolstered ties with countries all over the continent, particularly those plagued by internal violence and disillusioned with Western powers. Russia remains a leading arms supplier and Russian private military contractors continue to expand their presence, most recently in Mali. Whether Russia is successfully pursuing a broader strategy, or merely engaging in tactical power plays, remains a matter of debate. Russia has long sought a naval base on the Red Sea and wields its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council for influence on the continent.

This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Samuel Ramani, author of an upcoming book on Russia in Africa. They talk about Russia’s historic goals and current strategy on the continent, differing reactions to the invasion of Ukraine, and why some African leaders pursue closer relations with Russia. They also discuss the new significance of African relations for Moscow today and how the war in Ukraine is already changing power dynamics on the continent.

The Middle East Institute has put out a PDF entitled “IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARD AND THE RISING CULT OF MAHDISM: MISSILES AND MILITIAS FOR THE APOCALYPSE.” If you’re looking for evidence that Iran is coming to its senses and will soon join the league of nations and embrace the West as brothers, you won’t find it here.

It’s worth devoting the time for a read, this is from the conclusion.

The finding of this research paper reveals three visible trends in the IRGC. The first relates to indoctrination becoming an increasing focal point in the Guard. Khamenei and his hardline circle have sought to nurture a more radical IRGC generation by dedicating more time to ideological indoctrination of its members. The promotion system within the ranks of the IRGC also favors ideological conviction over technical expertise, ensuring the most zealous members rise up within the chain of command. The second trend relates to the increasing priority given to Mahdism within the IRGC’s ideology. From the post-2009 period onwards, the doctrine of Mahdism has become one of the main prisms through which the IRGC and affiliated hardline clerics would understand the world around them and the IRGC’s actions, as well as communicate that understanding. In turn, there has been greater emphasis on viewing the IRGC as the military vehicle to prepare the foundations for the reappearance of the 12th Imam, with policy objectives such as hostility toward the U.S. and the eradication of Israel being understood through this prism. This is consistent with the goal of Khamenei and his hardline allies, such as Ayatollah Alamalhouda, the supreme leader’s representative to Khorasan and President Ebrahim Raisi’s father-in-law, to transform the concept of Mahdism from a set of feelings into an “ideological belief.” The third and final trend relates to the IRGC’s younger generations becoming more radical and extreme. In this regard, efforts by Khamenei and the Guard’s Ideological-Political Organization to nurture a more radical generation among the IRGC has paid, and is paying, dividends.

Against this backdrop, the rise of devout followers of the militaristic doctrine of Mahdism among the senior ranks of the IRGC is not inconceivable and should not be ruled out. While there is hope that the IRGC’s senior leadership will act pragmatically, internal structures within the Guard — including its indoctrination and promotion system — certainly open up the possibility that devoted Mahdists could occupy senior leadership positions. Such a scenario could have far-reaching consequences as it would bring the three pillars of the IRGC’s foreign policy — militias, ballistic missiles, and the nuclear program — under their control. Even if a small number of devout Mahdists occupy senior positions in the Guard, it is possible that they may seek to facilitate and speed up the return of Mahdi. This would have major implications for some of the policies that are being understood through the prism of Mahdism, such as Israel’s existence being the “greatest barrier” to the reappearance of the 12th Imam.

Monday we took a look at the unfolding economic crisis in Sri Lanka. Yesterday then, some news that India heaved a life vest into the water, while China tied a concrete block to it…

Sri Lanka has extended a credit line with India by $200 million in order to procure emergency fuel stocks, the country’s power and energy minister said on Monday, as China said it supported efforts for the island nation to restructure its debt.

Colombo was also in talks with New Delhi over extending the credit line by an additional $500 million, minister Kanchana Wijesekera told a news conference, with four fuel shipments due to arrive in May.

Beijing’s ambassador Qi Zhenhong told Sri Lankan Finance Minister Ali Sabry at a meeting on Monday that China – one of the island’s largest bilateral lenders having extended about $6.5 billion in loans – supports its decision to work with the IMF to restructure its debt.

“Ambassador Zhenhong also assured Minister Ali Sabry that as a major shareholder of the IMF, China is willing to play an active role in encouraging the IMF to positively consider Sri Lanka’s position and to reach an agreement as soon as possible,” Sri Lanka’s finance ministry said in a statement.

In other words, China is saying “Sri Lanka, you’re already into us for six and a half large. Before we send more good money after bad, you can go to the IMF, but as for what you owe us, we’ll see if we can come to an “agreement.””

In return for China playing the role of angel investors, what sort of repayment might China look for from Sri Lanka?

On the southern tip of Sri Lanka, China helped finance and build the Hambantota Port project. The port opened in 2010. Often cited as an example of China’s “debt trap” approach to its victims, er, partners, China lent truckloads of money to Sri Lanka in the decade that followed, and in 2017, China Merchants Port was granted 70% of the port, as well as a 99 year lease.

The port is part of China’s so-called “string of pearls,” a chain of China-financed ports stretching from Africa to Gwadar to Sri Lanka and around SE Asia and up to Hong Kong.

In addition to that, China is building and financing the Colombo Port City in the capital city, on the west side of Sri Lanka. The project, on reclaimed land, is meant to be an international finance and economic center. It will be interesting to see if China pushes for outright ownership of one or both of these projects as Sri Lanka’s ability to pay its debt plunges.

On Tuesday, the Chinese Embassy in Sri Lanka tweeted this.

This came right after a series of tweets celebrating International Workers Day, but this was the subject of the tweets.

Message received.

Sri Lanka is far away, it’s not an especially large country, but current events there may have lessons for us here at home.

Over the weekend, Sri Lanka’s president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, agreed to remove his brother, Mahinda, as Prime Minister. The Rajapaksa brothers have been at the top of Sri Lanka’s government for nearly twenty years, but this move is the fallout of a serious economic crisis in Sri Lanka that is getting worse.

Sri Lanka’s 26-year struggle against the Tamil Tigers ended in 2009. (At the time, Mahinda was President and Gotabaya was Defense Minister.) That civil war was extremely costly, and the roots of the current crisis go back to the struggle to recover from the civil war. Sri Lanka borrowed what for it was a great deal of foreign money. Today, debt has reached well over 100% of GDP. Combined with a series of tax cuts under President Gotabaya a few years ago, Sri Lanka’s ability to pay back its debt became increasingly difficult.

Beginning in 2019, two shocks served to push Sri Lanka closer to the edge. The Easter bombings in April 2019 targeted several churches and hotels and killed 265 people. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the suicide bombings. In the aftermath tourism, which is an important industry in Sri Lanka and and brings in a significant amount of foreign dollars which is needed to pay back the foreign debt, declined sharply, putting even more pressure on Sri Lanka’s distressed economy.

Then, COVID hit in 2020 which hurt tourism even more. By February of this year, inflation was running over 17%. There are shortages of fuel and electricity. Predictably, widespread protests broke out in March. On March 31 a large group of protestors tried to get to President Gotabaya’s home. A state of emergency was declared the next day.

Events have snowballed from there. Cabinet members began to resign as the Rajapaksa brothers were unable to hold a unity government together. The value of the Sri Lankan rupee dived, and interest rates have soared.

In mid-April, Sri Lanka said it would default on its foreign debt. Sri Lanka does not have the foreign cash reserves to make the payments due this year. What money Sri Lanka does have is needed for necessities.

Sri Lanka is seeking help from the IMF, and indeed from anyone who is willing. Sri Lanka has talked to India and China about loans as well as fuel shipments. Even medical supplies are starting to experience shortages. The social unrest is not going away any time soon.

Inflation, high debt, rising interest rates, shortages, social unrest. Are we looking into a crystal ball?

More tragedy in Kabul, from the UN…

The United Nations has condemned the deadly bomb blasts at two educational institutions in Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, on Wednesday, which killed at least six people and wounded nearly 20 others.

The explosions took place at the all-boys Abdul Rahim Shahid high school and the nearby Mumtaz Education Centre, both located in the Dasht-e-Barchi area, a predominantly Shiite Muslim neighbourhood in western Kabul.

The attack at the Abdul Rahim Shahid high school reportedly occurred as students were coming out of their morning classes, according to the UN in Afghanistan. The blasts at the Mumtaz Education Centre followed shortly afterwards.

This Dasht-e-Barchi area is on the west side of Kabul and is a Shiite neighborhood largely populated by Hazaras. A sizeable minority spread across Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Hazaras speak a dialect of Farsi and have been persecuted in the past by the Taliban.

Here’s some brief footage from Twitter from the area of the school, which is here in Google Maps.

From the VOA, another sign that a troublesome group isn’t going away any time soon…

A regional affiliate of Islamic State on Monday said it had carried out a rocket attack on Uzbekistan from neighboring Afghanistan, the first strike by the terrorist group against the Central Asian nation.

Islamic State Khorasan Province fired 10 rockets at an Uzbek military base in the border town of Termez, the group said in a statement released Monday, according to Site Intelligence, which tracks terrorist propaganda.

IS Khorasan, first formed in 2015, is an affiliate of the Islamic State. Though the US and Afghan militaries did significant damage to IS Khorasan in the years following its formation, it has claimed responsibility for numerous attacks, including the bombing at the Kabul airport last August as the US was, uh, strategically advancing out of Afghanistan as fast as it could.

The site of this attack, Termez, is home to the Afghan-Uzbekistan Friendship Bridge. You may remember it as the bridge the last Soviet forces in Afghanistan used to exit the country.

The group even provided video footage to claim responsibility for the attack.

IS Khorasan has been openly hostile to the Taliban in the past and has clashed with them. The fact they can still operate within Afghanistan and now launch rockets at Uzbekistan does not bode well for peace in the region any time soon.

A Pakistani terror group, TTP, also operates within Afghanistan while launching attacks in Pakistan, such as an attack a few days ago that killed several troops. In response, the Pakistani military struck back inside Afghanistan.

The Taliban accused Pakistan on Saturday of launching cross-border military raids inside Afghanistan, which reportedly caused dozens of civilian casualties.

Local Taliban officials confirmed to VOA on condition of anonymity that Pakistani jets on Saturday bombed several villages in the border province of Khost, killing “at least 30 civilians, including women and children.”
…
Islamabad says the TTP, which is designated as a global terrorist organization by the United States and the United Nations, is plotting terrorism against the country from its Afghan sanctuaries.

Pakistani officials have acknowledged a recent spike in TTP attacks, particularly in northwestern districts on the Afghan border, which reportedly have killed and wounded dozens of soldiers.

The latest such attack took place Saturday when militants ambushed a Pakistani military convoy in the volatile North Waziristan district opposite Khost, killing seven troops.

The Pakistan government has repeatedly urged the Taliban rulers to rein in TTP activities since the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan last August, days before U.S.-led foreign troops withdrew from the country after 20 years.

Afghanistan is a basket case, and it’s getting basketier.

While the Biden Administration continues to install express check-in kiosks all across the southern border, this article from the Wilson Center points out there are other implications beyond just importing what the Democrats hope will be a compliant voting bloc and dependent class.

Russian aggression against Ukraine may jeopardize Mexico’s relationship with the United States. This is the opinion of many Mexican commentators, who are generally critical of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). It is a war (a word forbidden by the Russian government) that has universal repercussions, something that does not seem to be understood by a president who has not shown any personal interest in international relations, unless it is to complain to Spain, to the European deputies, or to Antony Blinken for his judgment on the murders of journalists.
…
That is why the organization Morena Youth (Juventudes de Morena) of the State of Mexico supports Russia and receives the gratitude of the Russian ambassador; that is why certain deputies of the government majority form a Mexico/Russia Friendship Group and invite the Russian ambassador to Congress (March 23, 2022). Mexico’s former ambassador to the US, Arturo Sarukhan expressed that this, “portrays full-length the stale, rancid and aimless left that Mexico does not deserve.”

On March 24, the commander of the United States Northern Command Gen. Glen VanHerck appeared before the US Senate Committee on Armed Services Committee, and he made this comment regarding Russian agents in Mexico (transcript here, comment from page 54, bold is mine)

General VanHerck: There are actors who are very aggressive and active all across the NORTHCOM AOR, to including the Bahamas and Mexico, China and Russia. I would point out that the largest portion of GRE members in the world is in Mexico right now. Those are Russian intelligence personnel, and they keep an eye very closely on their opportunities to have influence on U.S. opportunities
and access.

(The GRU is Russian military intelligence.)

A porous border unguarded by a feckless Administration will attract malignant operators. Increasingly, migrants crossing the US border come from outside Mexico and Central America, including, ahem, this from BusinessInsider… Do we know who they are?

In December, over 2,000 Russians and 300 Ukrainians made their way to the border. Axios reported most of them had either arrived or were found at a legal port of entry in San Diego, California.

By comparison, only 53 Russians were found at the US-Mexico border in December of the previous year.

The aforementioned Arturo Sarukhan writing at Brookings a couple days ago had a few pointed comments, shockingly so for a diplomat, on Mexico’s coy game of footsie with Moscow.

Now, with the president’s MORENA party and its allies in the lower house of Congress having unconscionably launched in late March a Mexico-Russia friendship caucus — inviting Moscow’s ambassador and providing him with a bully pulpit to disseminate lies and disinformation — Mexico is blindly playing with fire. López Obrador apparently believes he can have his cake and it eat too when it comes to ties with the United States and the EU, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) framework, and Mexico’s global and multilateral diplomatic footprint.
…
Over the years, a combination of navel-gazing and lack of purpose, ambition, budget, and overarching grand strategy have all meant that when it comes to global or even hemispheric affairs, Mexico’s diplomatic payload tends to be woefully puny, particularly compared with other emerging economies and regional powers. Now, with López Obrador’s disdain for foreign policy and his general austerity drive eviscerating Mexico’s foreign service corps and its footprint abroad, the nation is punching even further below its weight in global affairs. Not even the best-funded diplomacy could make up for decisionmaking like López Obrador’s.

Almost two weeks ago a UN-brokered ceasefire in Yemen brought a glimmer of hope for a way out of the years-long war there that according to this UNDP report has taken just under 400,000 lives.

By doing so, we found that by the end of 2021, Yemen’s conflict will lead to 377,000 deaths – nearly 60 per cent of which are indirect and caused by issues associated with conflict like lack of access to food, water, and healthcare.

The UN Special Envoy for Yemen said:

I would like to announce that the parties to the conflict have responded positively to a United Nations proposal for a two-month Truce which comes into effect tomorrow 2 April at 1900hrs. The parties accepted to halt all offensive military air, ground and maritime operations inside Yemen and across its borders; they also agreed for fuel ships to enter into Hudaydah ports and commercial flights to operate in and out of Sana’a airport to predetermined destinations in the region; they further agreed to meet under my auspices to open roads in Taiz and other governorates in Yemen. The Truce can be renewed beyond the two-month period with the consent of the parties.

The war in Yemen has become a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and much like the dog that didn’t bark, Iran’s reaction to the ceasefire announcement was upbeat despite the supposed prospect at losing its weapons training ground. Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman said:

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh has welcomed an initiative put forth by the UN chief’s special envoy for Yemen to stop military operations for two months and to allow ships carrying fuel and to partially reopen the Sanaa airport.
Khatibzadeh expressed hope that this move will be the prelude to the full lifting of the blockade on Yemen and a permanent ceasefire in order to find a political solution to the country’s crisis. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman reaffirmed Iran’s policy to support a political and humanitarian solution in Yemen, saying, “We hope that on the eve of the holy month of Ramadan, humanitarian issues will be prioritized, the ceasefire will hold and we will see an improvement in the humanitarian situation and a prisoner swap between the warring sides.”

This excellent report by Katherine Zimmerman out of the AEI’s Critical Threats project goes into detail about Iran’s involvement in Yemen.

Shared interests underpin the relationship between the Houthis and Iran and the Axis of Resistance. Houthi leaders uphold Iran’s Islamic Revolution as a model to follow, and Iran’s revisionist ideas and efforts to reshape the regional order resonate with them. They thus have found common ground with other Axis members seeking to change the status quo through force, including Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi’a militias, among others. For Iran, the Houthis initially presented an opportunity to threaten Saudi Arabia’s southern border, and Iran has led an effort to cultivate the Houthis as part of its network. The Houthis now rely on Iran and the Axis to retain certain capabilities necessary for their ongoing projection of power from Yemen and have begun to support Axis initiatives from which they do not necessarily benefit.
…
The Houthis now form an integral part of Iran’s Axis of Resistance. Iran cultivates this network to expand its own influence, leveraging its partners in pursuit of its regional objectives: expelling the United States and establishing Iranian hegemony. Members, including the Assad regime, Hezbollah, some Iraqi Shi’a militias, Hamas, PIJ, and some Bahraini militias, benefit from Iranian state support and shared resources and capabilities among Axis members. The Houthis rely on Iran and the Axis to retain certain capabilities crucial to their continued success in Yemen and have begun supporting Axis initiatives that do not necessarily benefit them directly.

In this February 2021 speech, Biden announced an end to “American support for offensive operations in the war in Yemen, including relevant arms sales.”

As players in the region deal with a disengaged United States, this ceasefire is an opportunity to clarify negotiating positions. From the Asia Times:

Iran’s expected surge following any lifting of sanctions becomes an “X” factor for all regional states, which Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt will have to handle in a different way than previously by taking into account the United States’ steady disengagement from the region.

Unlike former president Donald Trump’s administration, US President Joe Biden tends to regard the past uncritical support for the Saudi-led war as a delusional mistake. This is already a tipping point, where the Houthis will negotiate without having to surrender their weaponry. The advantage goes to the Houthis. Equally, Iran emerges as the regional player to gain the most. Its robust support for the Houthis has paid off.

If the Biden Administration buries its head in the sand when it comes to Iran’s wider aims, Zimmerman summarizes what the Administration might find when it comes up for air:

Yemen is now a single theater in a larger, regional war. The Houthis have developed extensive ties across the Axis of Resistance and have integrated Axis narratives into their own. Iran is waging proxy warfare through the Houthis, and Iran’s limited investment in them has expanded the scope of the conflict beyond Yemen’s borders. Weapons in the Houthis’ arsenal threaten Gulf states and Israel, as well as maritime traffic in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Iran and its Axis of Resistance oppose the deepening of relations between Israel and Arab states, particularly the UAE, and have signaled they will contest these developments. Understanding the Houthis only within the context of Yemen misses this shift in regional security dynamics. The United States must change its approach to securing its interests in the Middle East given the new reality of the Houthis as part of the Axis of Resistance.

This year will see the 80th anniversary of the Guadalcanal campaign. Guadalcanal was at the end of a chain of Japanese bases radiating from their main bases at Rabaul and Truk. Japan pushed these bases out with the aim of interdicting supply routes between the US and their ANZAC allies. After relieving the threat to Port Moresby on New Guinea with the Battle of the Coral Sea, the US saw an opportunity to check Japan’s advance towards the New Hebrides. Guadalcanal’s strategic location was ideal for the airfield Japan had under construction. The Marines invaded in August 1942 and after a tough six month battle, the US had secured a base that set the stage for Operation Cartwheel, a major campaign aimed at neutralizing Rabaul.

Gudalcanal’s location in relation to sea lanes between the US and Australia is no less strategic today, which is why plenty of alarm bells are sounding after the government of the Solomon Islands announced a security agreement with China last week.

Solomon Islands Ministers of Foreign Affairs and External Trade Hon Jeremiah Manele and Minister of Police and National Security and Correctional Services, the Hon Anthony Veke jointly announced that officials of Solomon Islands and the Peoples Republic of China have initialed elements of a bilateral Security Cooperation Framework between the two countries today.

The draft Framework Agreement will be cleaned up and await signatures of the two countries Foreign Ministers.

Solomon Islands reiterate that the Framework of Cooperation is to respond to Solomon Islands soft and hard domestic threats. Solomon Islands continue to roll out the implementation of its National Security Strategy and uphold its Foreign Policy of “Friends to all and enemies to none.”

Last week the Treasury Dept imposed sanctions on an individual and four related companies that “procured ballistic missile propellant-related materials for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Research and Self Sufficiency Jihad Organization (IRGC RSSJO), the IRGC unit responsible for the research and development of ballistic missiles.”

This was in response to “Iran’s missile attack on Erbil, Iraq on March 13 and the Iranian enabled Houthi missile attack against a Saudi Aramco facility on March 25 as well as other missile attacks by Iranian proxies against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.”

The individual had “been personally involved in high-level meetings and traveled with senior IRGC RSSJO officials and, in his role as the manager of Sina Composite, procured processing machines for nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) from China using falsified shipping documents.”

One of the companies “has procured centrifuge spare parts used in the production of ballistic missile propellant valued in the hundreds of thousands of dollars from suppliers in China.”

In response, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said:

“This move is another demonstration of the ill-will of the US government toward the Iranian nation, which is a continuation of the failed policy of maximum pressure by that government against Iran, and this clearly proves the fact that the current US administration, contrary to what it claims, uses every opportunity to level baseless accusations against the Iranian people and impose pressure on them,” Saeed Khatibzadeh said.

“The US claims to be ready to return to full implementation of its obligations under the nuclear deal, while it continues to significantly violate the UN Security Council resolution 2231.”

2231 is the resolution (text here) in support of the original JCPOA. That’s a bit rich, accusing the US of being in violation. The resolution said this of Iran’s missile program:

Iran is called upon not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology…

If you believe Iran isn’t trying to build a nuclear missile program, there’s a place for you in the Biden Administration. This would be the same administration currently trying to negotiate a return to the JCPOA with Iran. I always wonder if the Treasury Dept’s Office of Foreign Assets Control ever gets invited to the White House Christmas parties. They are diligent about keeping tabs on Iran. I’m always amazed the commissars in the White House let them issue all these sanctions. It makes all these negotiations in Vienna look rather silly.

What’s more, this Iranian missile program is proceeding with the assistance of China. Factor things like this in when you wonder why China was sliding stacks of dollars to the Bidens.

Yesterday we took a brief gander at China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an infrastructure project on a grand scale meant to ensure China has access to the natural resources it needs and to facilitate trade going the other way.

In a serendipitous development in the Hunter Biden saga, yesterday the Washington Post published a story accepting as fact the reporting the New York Post did back in October 2020 based on the contents of a laptop that Hunter Biden left in a repair shop.

(This would be the same reporting the fools at Facebook and Twitter tried to stop from spreading. In addition to the reporting the New York Post did, NY Post columnist Miranda Devine wove all the disparate threads into a coherent story of corruption in her book Laptop From Hell.)

The initial reporting on the laptop focused on Hunter Biden’s involvement in Ukraine and his position on the board of Burisma even though he had no experience in Energy etc… That was not the extent of Hunter Biden’s money-grubbing, not by a long shot. He was also chasing deals in China, and the Washington Post story focuses on the China angle.

The deal was years in the making, the culmination of forging contacts, hosting dinners, of flights to and from China. But on Aug. 2, 2017, signatures were quickly affixed, one from Hunter Biden, the other from a Chinese executive named Gongwen Dong.

Within days, a new Cathay Bank account was created. Within a week, millions of dollars started to change hands.

Within a year, it would all begin to collapse.

While many aspects of Hunter Biden’s financial arrangement with CEFC China Energy have been previously reported and were included in a Republican-led Senate report from 2020, a Washington Post review confirmed many of the key details and found additional documents showing Biden family interactions with Chinese executives.

Over the course of 14 months, the Chinese energy conglomerate and its executives paid $4.8 million to entities controlled by Hunter Biden and his uncle, according to government records, court documents and newly disclosed bank statements, as well as emails contained on a copy of a laptop hard drive that purportedly once belonged to Hunter Biden.

Beginning Wednesday, China is playing host to a meeting in Tunxi ostensibly on Afghanistan and attendees include various neighbors of Afghanistan. Of greater interest are the side meetings taking place there.

China will host a series of meetings about Afghanistan on Wednesday, featuring representatives of Russia, the US, the Taliban, and South and Central Asian countries, as it ramps up diplomatic engagement with its troubled neighbour.

The meetings in Tunxi, in the eastern Chinese province of Anhui, will be a rare instance of officials from Moscow and Washington meeting since Russia invaded Ukraine last month.

The Chinese foreign ministry said on Tuesday that Yue Xiaoyong, China’s special envoy to Afghanistan, would host counterparts from the United States, Russia and Pakistan for the latest “troika plus” talks.

The four-way meeting will be held on the sidelines of a conference of ministers from Afghanistan’s neighbours, at which Foreign Minister Wang Yi will host ministers and officials from Iran, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, the Chinese ministry said.

Out of one of those side meetings came this little item.

Foreign Ministers of Russia and Iran Sergei Lavrov and Hossein Amir Abdollahian at a meeting in China confirmed the desire of both countries to strengthen cooperation in all areas, despite the sanctions imposed by Western countries against Moscow and Tehran, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement following the meeting.

Russia talking with Iran, in China. What could go wrong? Even though Lavrov has a shooting war on his hands, and has a hostile West to deal with, he still found time to fly to eastern China. A sign, I think, of the value Lavrov saw in making the trip.

What form this joint sanction-busting cooperation might take is unclear, but there are other interesting things to keep an eye on here. China made this comment at the conference (bold is mine)…

One reason we study the past is because at its core, human nature is constant. Our fundamental needs and our capacity for good and evil can be recognized in any era. How people in the past reacted to circumstances can be predictive of how people in the present might react when faced with similar circumstances.

I’ll share an example of this. In a well-known passage in his History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides records (more like imagines, as he wasn’t there) the Melian Dialogue (Book 5, 84–116), a (one-sided?) conversation between Athens and the people of the island of Melos in 416 BC.

At this point in the Peloponnesian War, Athens was still feeling secure in its naval power. In the first part of the war, Athens had major successes against Sparta at Naupactus, Pylos and Sphacteria. Defeats at Delium and Amphipolis though led to the Peace of Nicias between the two in 421 BC. Meant to last 50 years, it barely lasted 6.

In 416 BC, then, as the peace was unravelling, Athens sent a sizeable force to conquer Melos, the reasons for which aren’t relevant to this discussion. I’ll just add that while it’s easy to think of the ancient Greeks as a bunch of bearded guys sitting around in white robes yammering in the public square about philosophy and democracy, they were very much tribal people.

This Thursday piece in the Washington Post caught my eye for reasons I’ll explain in a moment, but it is illustrative of how when war is unleashed, the shrapnel goes in all directions.

In a Minnesota classroom, two weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, a high school teacher asked her class where they would travel if they could go anywhere in the world. Barrett Buck, 16, who was adopted from Moscow at 15 months old, began replying, “Russia, because —” A scoff cut her off before she could finish the sentence.

Buck continued, saying she’d like to experience more of the country of her birth. Then she added, “I don’t support Russia and what’s going on.”

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has complicated the lives of kids like Buck, one of tens of thousands of children adopted from Russia in the 1990s and early 2000s, and their families, as they navigate layers of feelings about their Russian identity amid the backdrop of an unprovoked war.

Mara Kamen, chair of Families for Russian and Ukrainian Adoption (FRUA), a volunteer-run organization shepherding a network of about 7,000 member families who have adopted children from the former Soviet bloc, says kids and teens adopted from Russia have felt intense hurt these past few weeks.

My son and daughter are both adopted from Russia, though at different times and from different places. We made a total of four trips to Russia, two for each of them. With our son, our first day with him in the orphanage was 9/11. With our daughter, the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 started the day after we got to Moscow (which, looking at the calendar, within the last week was exactly nineteen years ago.) I might share those stories at some point down the road.

…I’ve seen in my lifetime is this: when I was a kid, famine still stalked Africa and Asia.

And today, worldwide, obesity is a bigger problem than hunger, in the third world. This has never happened in all of human history.

And it can all end tomorrow.