Statistical Rhetoric

Joe Doakes from Como Park emails:

Article on vaccine hesitancy uses risk graph that shows what they want it to show to support their argument, not what it ought to show for me to make up my own mind. Odds of dying fully vaccinated are 1 in 137,000. Yeah, versus the odds of dying from what? Car accident? Hot air balloon crash? Carnival knife thrower? Who cares? In an article about vaccine hesitancy, the correct comparison is odds of dying while fully vaccinated versus odds of dying while not vaccinated. If you’re trying to convince me to get vaccinated, then show me the vast improvement in the odds resulting from the vaccine. Instead, the next graph shows just the opposite. Odds of NOT dying from Covid are the same as the ordinary flu, except for the elderly infirm.

I lack the math skills to convert the second chart into the first chart but I’m guessing that in a nation of 350 million people with only 650,000 deaths (and those are deaths counted using the phony numbers), my odds of dying from Covid while not vaccinated are only 1 in 538. Given most of the deaths are elderly infirm, my odds are actually better, maybe 1 in 1,000 about the same as drowning or a motorcycle accident, risks that I consider slight enough to ignore. And since I work mostly from home and rarely travel, my odds of meeting an Covid-infected person to catch the bug and die from it are even lower, just as my odds of dying from snake bite are much lower than the national average, which is lower than the global average.

I hate articles that use misleading graphs like that. They actually heighten my vaccine hesitancy.

Joe Doakes

My favorite example from the last week; the star Tribune breathlessly pointing out that 69 people had gotten infected with Covid at the Minnesota State fair.

Which turns out to be an infection rate per million roughly 1/4 that of the general population.

14 thoughts on “Statistical Rhetoric

  1. No wonder I didn’t get sick after spending 12 days at the Fair. Seriously. But JD, being a senior like me your calculation should take into account the very much higher case fatality rate for our cohort. I don’t believe in vaccine mandates but I look at risk/benefit and getting a vaccine made a lot of sense. I’m in the Novavax clinical trial. Approved in UK. Not messenger RNA. More like conventional vaccine. Hopefully FDA will approve it here.

  2. After 5.60 billion doses administered, I’d say the test pool is large enough.

    My daughter-in-law, who loves her wine and sucks down a pack of burning embers every day, says, “I ain’t putting that in my body.”

    Well then, okay.

    I think 90% of it is “cause THEY said to and THEY lie.”

    Again, well then okay.

    But it’s like I tell my wife who misses her turns “cause that guy was tailgating me.”

    “Hey, don’t let others drive your car.”

  3. We’ve seen or heard the stories about people who were anit-vax and then died from covid.
    But while these stories appear on MSM news outlets, they aren’t news. We know that unvaxxed people can die from covid, and no one was vaxxed for the first year of the pandemic.
    If the MSM wanted to inform you, they would carry a thousand stories about people who refused the vaccine and were just fine for every story they ran about an unvaxxed person who died from covid.

  4. My vaccine hesitancy has bloomed into full bloom shove that vaxx up your ass with a 12 lb. sledge.

    Ironically, my refusal is less concerned with the safety of the juice, after a large study was conducted by people who have no financial or political dog in the fight.

    The study favorably addresses morbidity caused by the juice as compared to those the ‘rona causes. It doesn’t convince me the juice is especially effective, or long lasting at all, but it seems it’s less of a health hazard.

    But the issue has moved past science. It’s become a matter of who controls our lives.

    If we do not resist the forces pulling Byedung’s strings; if we comply with an order being enforced through governmental threats, we are lost.

    Last night, Tucker Carlson addressed my observations to the “T”. The would-be overlords see a path to complete control over the world’s population, and unless we are prepared, they will win. It’s stand and fight, or crawl.

    My sell down continues this week, with a transaction that will pay off the mortgage on our land, as well as pay for a necessary piece of heavy equipment.

    Our goal of self sufficiency will be met before the end of the year, or very soon after.

  5. I think 90% of it is “cause THEY said to and THEY lie.”

    Both of which are indisputably true. I guess that’s OK for a lot of people.

    Hey, don’t let others drive your car.

    No; it’s way beyond that. Now THEY’RE telling you when you can drive it, and where you can drive to….and, yes, THEY will check.

    That’s OK for you. I’m not in no ways ready to crawl for THEM.

  6. Oh, and btw.

    THEY made a big story of the FDA approving the Pfizer juice last week. Why is Pfizer still operating under the CDC’s EUA? And why did the CDC extend it for them?

    Because as soon as their juice is listed, Pfizer is no longer immune from tort suites.

  7. No; it’s way beyond that. Now THEY’RE telling you when you can drive it, and where you can drive to….and, yes, THEY will check.

    That’s OK for you. I’m not in no ways ready to crawl for THEM.

    We are talking about whether to get the vaccine or not.

    Frankly, I don’t give a s**t what THEY say and I could care less what THEY want me to do. Whether THEY lie or not is utterly irrelevant to my decisions or behavior. I simply ignore those who lie or bluster.

    In other words, I feel in no way compelled to do the opposite, just because THEY say to do something.

    Personally, it made sense to me to get vaccinated, so I did it at the first opportunity.

  8. The CDC also changed their definition of vaccines. The new definition calls them “a preparation”.

  9. Boss: I’m surprised they didn’t call them “oil-like” substances purported to help the intended mark/victim/recipient. Sometimes derived from snakes. Almost anything could fit into that definition, right?

  10. Yup! And as Bill pointed out, the fine print in the FDA’s approval of the Pfizer jab, indicates that the actual vaccine is not yet available. By approving the Emergency Use version, we see clear evidence that Pfizer owns the FDA.

  11. “We are talking about whether to get the vaccine or not.”

    No Greg. It was never about that. It is, and always was about control.

    The talkin’ is finished. Biden’s shot callers have made it official. Get the juice, or they’re coming after your money. And if that doesn’t work, do not think for a minute they won’t think of something else.

    I just read an article about my people:

    “About 70 percent of unvaccinated Americans who are not self-employed said they would likely quit their job if their employer mandated COVID-19 vaccines and did not grant religious or medical exemptions, a new Washington Post/ABC News poll found.”

    Yes, that Washington Post.

    I refused to get the juice for three reasons:

    A: The data doesn’t add up
    B: They don’t work as advertised
    C: I’m not worried about catching the ‘rona again. Had it, no big deal/

    If and when a vax was a listed drug (via an NDC code), I might have taken it, because the pharmaceutical company will have taken legal responsibility if it does me harm. (The fact that the FDA has cleared the Pfizer vax, but they asked for an extension of their EUA says something, btw.)

    But now, my government is threatening the lively-hood and security of my family. I’ll fight that shit all the way, man. I’ll never get that juice. Not today, Not Tomorrow. Not ever.

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