Jeff Kouba on the Spartanburg, SC Republican straw poll – which Rudy Giuliani won, with 158 votes. Duncan Hunter was in second with 152, McCain came in third at 116 votes, with Brownback, Romney and Huckabee trailing by more distant margins.
Kouba:
Skipping the usual blandishments about how little these polls count, straw polls normally reward on-the-spot organization and ideological fidelity more than electability, experience, or money – witness in Minnesota two examples, Gary Bauer’s 1999 victory and Newt Gingrich’s 2006 win.
The catch?
But the campaign organizations in South Carolina claiming victory were, well, Spartan.
As The Hotline’s excellent primer for the straw poll revealed, Giuliani’s organization consisted of 2 paid staff and were already talking down expectations before the vote. Hunter had no paid staff – none – and claimed only 25 to 30 volunteers. In contrast, McCain had “the most advanced field team in the state” and 11 paid SC staff members to come in third. Romney had 10 on the payroll, headlined a major dinner recently and has been airing TV ads, which bought him 3 votes more than soon-to-be conservative also ran Sam Brownback.
In other words, Giuliani’s straw poll win – insert eternal “16 months ’til the convention” blurb here – was against type for these kinds of straw polls.
The result also hints at the true depths of the current popularity of Giuliani when Hizzoner wins a straw poll in one of the more conservative counties in South Carolina with next to no campaign structure.
The left – including some of them who frequent this blog – continue to insist that the conservative base will eventually shun Rudy. And yet Rudy keeps on winning conservative straw polls, and handily, including this latest one – deep in the fanny pack on the back of the Bible Belt.
The kind of place that’s supposed to eat smartass New Yorkers alive…
Here’s a decent piece on the Rudy question, from New York magazine.
http://nymag.com/news/features/28517/
Angryclown continues to believe Rudy can’t get the nomination, but it will certainly be interesting to watch.
Six months ago, I’d have agreed on the nomination.
Now? Not so sure.
Interesting? Absolutely.
One thing is clear, McCain is done. Good riddance.
Didn’t Rudy have his first marriage annulled when he discovered his wife was also his cousin? Not sure if that will hurt him or help him hold his Southern flank.
That’s good news so far. And I like that Duncan Hunter is doing so well, too.
You would.
Once Rudy has to campaign without his 9/11 umbrella he is going to have a tough go of it. But don’t the conservatives here see Rudy and McCain as RINOs? Rudy more so than McCain?
Fulcrum said:
Once Rudy has to campaign without his 9/11 umbrella he is going to have a tough go of it.
I don’t agree with that. Rudy cleaned up New York; it was well on its way to becoming a war zone when he took office. Even the far leftists there admit he turned it around.
But don’t the conservatives here see Rudy and McCain as RINOs?
Yes, there are some issues I strongly disagree with him on, but most of them are lower priority issues, or not imperative to this country’s survival.
Bottom line: I wouldn’t have a problem with him because he has proven he can govern, and is far better than some alternative candidates that could be elected.
Fulcrum, I would like to compliment you; you have become a good and valuable commenter from the left, and one that engages in serious discussion. You just need to bone up on some issues and current events, you could be great.
Keep up the good work!
Paul is right-Fulcrum deserves praise for his postings from “the other side”!
A compliment from these people is no compliment, Fulcrum.
Rudy won the SD63 Straw Poll.
While this was not a scientific poll, it does seem to validate many of the scientific polls that have been done. Rudy has genuine grassroots support.
Check out this latest poll.
Newsweek Poll, Feb. 28-March 1 2007
Rudy Giuliani 59%
John McCain 34%
Rudy Giuliani 70%
Mitt Romney 20%
General Matchups:
Rudy Giuliani 47%
Hillary Clinton 46%
Rudy Giuliani 48%
Barack Obama 43%
Rudy Giuliani 47%
John Edwards 45%
Hillary Clinton 47%
John McCain 46%
Barack Obama 45%
John McCain 43%
John Edwards 48%
John McCain 43%
Rudy won the SD63 Straw Poll.
While this was not a scientific poll, it does validate many of the scientific polls that have been done. Rudy has genuine grassroots support.
Check out this latest poll.
Newsweek Poll, Feb. 28-March 1
Rudy Giuliani 59%
John McCain 34%
Rudy Giuliani 70%
Mitt Romney 20%