Shot in the Dark

Battlespace Preparation IV

Joe Doakes formerly of Como Park emails:

We know there’s a battle coming.  Congress’s funding resolution runs out March 14.  If Trump and Congress don’t reach a deal on a new budget, the government shuts down with all the angst and drama we recall from earlier battles, with all the political risks that have made some Republicans unwilling to fight the battle again.  So in the upcoming fight over the budget, what’s our view, the Conservative view?

Personally, I’d like to see something akin to Constitutional government. Article I, Section 8 enumerates the powers given to Congress.  Go read it. It’s worth remembering that those are the ONLY powers the Founders wanted Congress to have.  To get back to that, we’d have to cut about 80% of the federal government.  I concede that’s not realistic in today’s political climate. 

What is realistic?  How about living within our means?  How about balancing income and outgo, revenue and expenditures, same as every family and small business must do?  What would it take to get there? 

We would have to cut about 2 Trillion dollars of annual spending. Is that possible?

First, let’s remember the last budget was 2019 when Trump was in office.  Starting in 2020, Congress ramped up spending to cover the extraordinary costs of fighting a world-ending epidemic of Covid.  Leaving aside the possibility  that Covid was merely an excuse to promote absentee ballots to steal the election, the spending never stopped.  Every year since 2020, Congress passed a continuing resolution which keeps spending the same amount of money as before, plus a little extra for inflation, including the emergency money for Covid and lately, money for Ukraine to the tune of a third-of-a-trillion dollars.  Surely some of that can go.

Second, let’s remember that Congress gives money to agencies to promote vague policy objectives like “safe food” or “transportation.”  What, specifically, the agency does with that money is up to the bureaucrats.  That’s why we get drag queen shows on military bases. Surely some of that can go. 

Third, let’s remember that every bureaucrat knows the first rule of budgeting is “spend it or lose it.”  They will hide behind a “hostage puppy” to protect the rest of their funding (so named for the famous National Lampoon cover). They will insist that if we cut the funding for drag queens, the puppy will die, the child in Ethiopia will starve, the meat will not be inspected, the Washington Monument will be closed, and Grandma will have to eat dog food to survive. We have heard it all before, surely they can’t expect us to fall for it again?

So what do we do?  First, we don’t fall for the  hostage puppy, we stand firm. If bureaucrats would rather let the Ethiopian kid starve than give up their drag queen shows, on their heads be it.  Second, we empower someone to look through agency budgets to cut out silliness to focus on core functions.  Musk’s team is doing that now but it ought to be a full time job for somebody. Third, we insist on real cuts now, not gimmicks like “out year” reductions 10 years down the road.  And most importantly, we get tough – we harden our hearts – so we can ride out the wailing and gnashing of teeth, the rending of garments, the accusations of every -ism imaginable. 

Why this fight?  Why now?  Because we’re nearly at the end of the road. We’re short about $2 Trillion a year which we borrowed to get by, but that’s been going on for so long we now owe $36 Trillion dollars which is more than the entire Gross Domestic Product of $26 Trillion. Do you realize what that means?  It means we owe more on the national debt than the value of all the goods and services produced in the entire nation.  

We pay more for interest on the national debt than the entire defense budget.  

By every reasonable measure, the United States is bankrupt.

It comes down to surgical cuts now or default on our debts later and then everything collapses into complete anarchy.  Choose wisely.  And demand that your elected representatives do the same. 

Joe Doakes

 

One of the upshots of Americans (induced) economic illiteracy is that if they’ve gotten any education in economics at all, it’s been in Keynesianism. As such, they think the natural, effective response to an economic downturn is to pour taxpayer money into the situation.

Which merely stretches out the natural recovery, as it did in 1933, and in 2008. 

In an economy with healthy fundamentals, a sharp downturn in a free market serves to kill off a whole lot of bad ideas – unsustainable dotcoms in 2001, subprime mortgages in 2008, and probably a whole lot of bubble-like irrational exuberance over AI today.   

Now – are we as a society smart enough to know this?   The fact that the Obama regime went back to subsidizing subprime mortgages after the ’08 recession (which their policies dragged out for years) indicates “probably not”. 

 

Comments

6 responses to “Battlespace Preparation IV”

  1. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    As I see the battle unravel, I keep butting my head against constitutionality questions. As Joe wrote, constitutional authority is clearly delineated. But this means once Congress appropriates money for changing sex in puppies, both houses vote for it, Prez signs off on it, the puppy gets transed. Executive cannot stop it if we follow separation of power argument. And yet here we are. New budget will have same pork in it and both houses will sign off on it and Trump will sign it. And then DOGE will cut it? I just cannot see how this can be reconciled. I am sure there is a logical and scholarly explanation, but I won’t see it unless Mitch does it another post.

  2. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    Darn, I wish Trump would have chosen DO*E name without a D*G in it.

  3. jdm Avatar
    jdm

    ^ How about the Federal Agency for Financial Oversight?

  4. SmithStCrx Avatar
    SmithStCrx

    Don’t forget that the $26T GDP number includes nearly $7T in Federal spending. It may have been Joe in an earlier email that already warned us that any substantial cuts to the Federal Budget will be reported as Trump putting the country into a Recession. And no one will remember that those same MSM “Experts” admitted to redefining “Recession” recently so they didn’t have to acknowledge that Joe Biden’s term oversaw a Recession. We need to highlight Private Sector GDP numbers, but just try googling what that number is. It’s not anywhere near the top search results.

    Anything in the Budget that isn’t current fiscal year is almost entirely smoke and mirrors. Tax rates continue, and Republicans will fight to extend the current rates, but making those current rates permanent won’t happen because of Budgetary Rules. In short, the Budget Control Act of 1974 says that the 10 year budget has to be balanced. That’s why spending cuts are in the future but never materialize, even if the demagoguery about it happens today. On paper, if taxes go up in 5 years and spending slows in 5 years, that 10 year budget officially balances, even if the current year deficit goes up. And yet, despite that seemingly fiscally conservative requirement, the National Debt has gone from $475B in 1974 to $36.22T currently.
    If I was in Congress right now, I’d be willing to vote for 2025 fiscal year Budget that didn’t balance because getting that isn’t politically feasible, but I’d at least require a budget no larger than the 2024 fiscal year in real dollar terms (2019 budget plus inflation would be even better). I live in MN CD4, but I don’t think I could even get elected in MN CD6 in an open election with that attitude, must less challenge Tom Emmer in a Primary. And that’s why we can’t have nice things, even if Elon Musk is trying to work as fast as possible.
    As I said before, if the GOP comes out with a fantastic FY 2026 Budget by October, I’ll retract the mean things I’ve said about it. On the plus side, for all the people naysaying Speaker Johnson in December over the current CR, aren’t you glad that Congress wasn’t trying to deal with this in January? The March deadline was strategic, even if I’d have preferred a complete year budget instead. At least this way it should be a bit smaller than anything Biden wouldn’t signed in September 2024.

  5. SmithStCrx Avatar
    SmithStCrx

    JPA,
    I think the Trump Administration is setting up a SCOTUS challenge on Impoundment. Andrew McCarthy did a couple of pieces a month of so ago about different challenges Trump may be setting up. One of his points is that many of the Post-Watergate “Reforms” that Congress got passed lack any penalties if POTUS doesn’t follow them. One of his examples was the IGs that got fired without the 30 Day warning that is technically required. IIRC, Impoundment was also mentioned. Andy’s contention was that Congress knew they were pushing unconstitutional constraints on the Executive Branch, but they have held for 50 years because they weren’t challenged. Most POTUS were happy to provide the 30 Day notice and not risk a confrontation at SCOTUS, especially with a Court less inclined toward Unitary Executive Theory. The strategy could very well be to have that confrontation now with justices that have been hinting, or just plain stating, their opposition to such restrictions. Even with John Roberts animus towards Trump, it’s still probably a 5-4 Court, and whenever possible, Roberts will probably try to make it 6-3 and narrowly write the opinions himself.

  6. ArthurRadley Avatar
    ArthurRadley

    I’m getting the chaos I voted for, but not as much as I want. Trump is issuing exec orders faster than the reprobates can get them into court. That’s great, but it is up to SCOTUS to put chaos into case law.

    San Francisco, St. Paul and Minneapolis have joined as a thruple, to challenge the loss of fed $ because they harbor border jumpers. They’ll get it before one of the black, female circuit court judges Biden’s handlers seated, and receive a temporary injunction. Then we win in the SCOTUS, and the real chaos can start.

    Meanwhile, where is Antifa? Why aren’t cities in flames? Why aren’t natsies being punched? Where is umbrella man???
    C’mon lads, let’s get going.

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