The Strib And Berg’s 11th Law

Over the weekend, theStribissued its endorsements for the GOP primaries.

And they were mostly utterly predictable – if you keep Berg’s Law in mind.  In this case, “Berg’s 11th Law of Inverse Viability” (“The conservative liberals “respect” for their “conservative principles” will the the one that has the least chance of ever getting elected”), and especially the Huckabee Corollary to Berg’s 11th Law (“The Republican that the media covers most intensively before the nomination for any office will be the one that the liberals know they have the best chance of beating after the nomination, and/or will most cripple the GOP if nominated”). 

It’s largely the Strib’s history of endorsements – endorsing the most moderate Republican for “reaching across the aisle”, but supporting the most extreme liberals for their “rock solid principles” – that ledShot in the Darkto the law in the first place. 

Race To The Middle:  The Strib endorsed Jim Abeler for Senate

Now, I’ve got nothing against Abeler, a longtime House rep from Anoka.  I’ve interviewed him more than any of the other Senate candidates.  He’s a sharp guy.  Too moderate for my tastes, of course – he was a member of the Override Six, among other things – but he states a good case for much of what he does.  I disagree with him, but I respect him.

But he came in around the bottom in the endorsement race at the convention.  The GOP left the moderate wing of the party (not that anyone’s told the moderates, like Dave Durenberger).  The Strib is doing its best to buff of the “moderate” wing of the party.  But only the GOP, naturally.

Coming from the Strib – which will surely endorse extreme liberal Al Franken for the race in November – how can this be seen as anything but trying to split their opposition?

Sivarajah:  I like Rhonda Sivarajah.  She’d make a spectacular Congresswoman.  Had Tom Emmer, and his name recognition and money, not entered the race, I think she’d have been a walkover to replace Michele Bachmann, and I’d have been happy to throw whatever I could offer behind her campaign (although that’s minimal, as is my impact on the race, as I live in the Fourth CD).

A lot of Republicans are like that. 

And what other reason could there be for the Strib to endorse her?  I mean, reading the part of the endorsement where they note Sivarajah helped build a conservative majority on the Anoka County Board, you can practically imagine the writer throwing up in their mouth.  But there is division to be sown, and the Strib will sow it, trying divide the GOP, and give the DFL candidate (whose name eludes me as, I suspect, it does all the voters in the 6th CD) a fighting shot. 

As always – Berg’s Law explains everything.  At least when it comes to politics.

An Announcement

Tom Emmer is making the least mysterious mystery announcement of the political season later this morning in Delano.

Republican Tom Emmer is expected to make an announcement about his political future on Wednesday in his hometown of Delano, Minn.

Emmer is likely to announce he will run for the 6th District Congressional seat now held by Republican Michele Bachmann.

His expected announcement comes one week after Bachmann announced she will not seek re-election.

Remember – while Bachmanns squeaked by in 2012, Mitt won the district by 15 points. Alida Messinger is going to have to spend a lot to try to slander him as badly as in 2010.

The 6th is an embarrassment of riches in the GOP candidate department – but Emmer has got to be considered the 900 pound gorilla.

That said, some of the states conservative punditry has come out against an Emmer bid. I think it’s myopic to attack him too hard for losing in 2010; he was outspent 3:1 (money which supported a campaign that was utterly silent on substantive policy but was ling on corrosive personal attacks) and faced an “Independence” party candidate funded by lefties to siphon off GOP votes, at the head of a campaign that got off to a terribly shaky start, and atop a GOP slate that tanked across the board as an initial sign that the MNGOP was in big trouble.

And he lost by a whisker. Had any single one of those factors been different – the money, they campaign rollout, the effect of the slander campaign, the collapse of the MNGOP – he’d have won.

Absent tens of millions of dollars of DFL plutocrat support? At the head of what may be the states most functional GOP organization? In a R+Lots district? This isn’t 2010.

There are other candidates, to be sure. Former House Majority leader Matt Dean is a solid contender. And I think Anoka County commissioner Rhonda Sivarajah, with her campaign win in one of the bluer parts left in CD6, would be an attractive candidate as well…

…among many others.

I don’t live there, of course; I’m stuck battling against Betty McCollum.

Bit lets start the straw poll. Who do you want to see run in CD6?

Of course,

To All Those Seeking Candidates In CD6

Remember:  the goal is to find someone who agrees with you 100% on principle. Not 99%; if they fall to 99, you throw them under the bus. Electability is not only irrelevant, it’s a sign that they *could* compromise! Impure!

And if they’ve ever held office, and have ever compromised with the other side (or anyone!) on any issue for whatever reason (which every elected official in history has had to do, either publicly or privately – because that is the roots of the term “politics”), that’s prima facie evidence of impurity. Shun!

And if you lose the primary to someone you only agree with 80% (which is a zero, really), or the general to a candidate you agree with 0% – well, it’s irrelevant, because 99=0, anyway, and you can spend the next 2-6 years telling all the other rubes how what bovine sheeple (?) they are, and how screwed we all are for not listening to you.

Which is the real goal.

Clear on this?

The Game-Changer

After eight years in office, Michele Bachmann is retiring from Congress:

A few questions for the audience:

Who Is Emanuelle Goldstein?: Extremists like the MNDFL has become need enemies.  The Minnesota Left will need to invent a new bete noir, someone on which to focus all their  insecurity and hatred, to keep them motivated.  Bachmann has served this role for over a decade and a half, between her Congressional, State Senate and educational organizing careers.  Bachmann bedeviled the local left by seeming to thrive on their hatred, turning it back on them with a wink and a smile and a dismissive quip.  So who does the MNDFL’s depraved, insane fringe pick as their new Demon?

Next?:  The Sixth is one of the few districts in the state with a deep bench of solid, polished GOP contenders.  Who should run to replace Michele?

Dead Air?:  With Michele Bachmann out of public life, what will Jack Tomczak talk about?

(I’m a kidder.  I kid.  I love Jack and Ben’s show.  But still…)

Tarry Not:   Does Tarryl Clark already have her U-Haul loaded up, or what?

Being As I Am…

…a Scandinavian-American to the bone, a little innate ethnic pessimism is always struggling with my normally optimistic nature.

Deep in my liver, I do feel as if the Democrats could sweep all eight Congressional districts this fall.  Indeed, given that they have an incumbent President, the Dems should  feel humiliated if they don’t win the Presidency and flip both chambers of Congress next month.

So that part of me always has a hard time reacting to news like this:  when adjusted for a more realistic weighting, the latest KSTP/SUSA poll shows Cravaack ahead of Rick Nolan.

Gary Gross (with the odd bit of emphasis added):

First, this KSTP-SurveyUSA poll oversamples Democrats by a 7-point margin. That can’t be justified, especially considering the fact that the Cook Report listed MN-8 as a D+3 district in 2010. Chip’s won over more Iron Rangers, meaning the Cook Report’s PVI rating is more like D+2 this year.

Second, Chip gets 89% of MN-8 Republicans, 6% of MN-8 DFLers and 53% of MN-8 independents.

Third, the proper weighting of the district is 35% DFL, 34% GOP, 31% independent. That means Chip gets 30.2 votes from Republicans, 2.1 votes from DFL voters and 16.5 votes from independents for every 100 voters. That’s 48.8 votes per hundred for Chip. That’s assuming there isn’t an enthusiasm gap, which there is. That enthusiasm gap favors Chip by a pretty solid margin.

Fourth, Rick Nolan gets 7% of Republican votes, 87% of DFL voters and a pathetic 36% of independents. That means Nolan gets 2.4 votes from the GOP, 30.5 votes from the DFL and 11.2 votes from independents per 100 votes. That’s a total of 44.1 votes per 100 for Nolan.

After factoring the enthusiasm gap that favors Chip, this race isn’t as close as the horserace figures indicate. This race is still competitive. Still, this snapshot must have Chip’s campaign smiling.

This race has been the Holy Grail for MInnesota DFLers.  If they don’t beat Cravaack, Duluth will be the new Arnhem.

They’ve Had Enough

The DFL treats a lot of constituencies like serfs – which is a polite word for “slaves”, although there’s usually not an actual title transfer on the humans involved.

Name ‘em – women, blacks, Latinos, Gays, Asians, the DFL expects to get all their votes, in exchange for doing nothing of use for them except try to crank up social spending.

Among them we have to add Private-Sector Unions.  Unlike the government employee unions, AFSCME and MAPE and EdMinn and the SEIU, the private sector unions have to work within the free market to keep working.

And DFL rule is disastrous for them.

Nowhere moreso than in the 8th CD, where the economic slump has hit, as usual, hardest, in what was a former DFL sinecure.  The hits keep coming, of course – the DFL’s environmental lobby – anaemic on the Iron Range, but big and powerful in the Twin Cities – has worked tirelessly to shut down the mining industry and to try to keep it shut down.

But in 2010, Chip Cravaack shocked the world – bringing the hope of some free market reforms, and more importantly jobs, to the Range and the Arrowhead.  Cravaack tipped Jim Oberstar in a hard-fought campaign for a seat that had been held by Democrats continuously since the Truman Administration.

The DFL is telling themselves they smell flip-back.  But Iron Rangers are not better off than they were four years ago – and despite Cravaack’s tireless efforts, the environmental lobby, hooked in as they are with the interventionist Obama and Dayton regulatory sledgehammers, the EPA and the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, wants to keep them that way.  Poor, broke and dependent.

The first union has had enough:

The International Union of Operating Engineers announced that it supports GOP Rep. Chip Cravaack’s reelection bid. The move will allow Cravaack to note on signs, in ads and in campaign lit that he’s “Labor Endorsed” in a union friendly district.

The IUOE – better known as “The 49ers” – are a huge force in the district.  And this is an upset; they endorsed Oberstar two years ago:

Earlier this week, the union held open meetings for members in the 8th District to hear from Cravaack and the three DFLers looking to replace him. After meeting with the candidates, “the strong majority voted to endorse Congressman Chip Cravaack,” according to a statement from the union.

Sources familiar with the election say it wasn’t even close – like, 60-40.

Specifically, the union applauded Cravaack for voting against several attempts to dial back prevailing wage laws, as well as his support for construction projects such as the Keystone Pipeline, the Polymet mining project and a new St. Croix River bridge.

“When we took a look at Congressman Cravaack’s term in office, it became clear that he has done a good job of staying away from partisan Washington politics, and really focusing on bread and butter issues that are important to construction workers in his district,” the group said in a statement. “He is not afraid to stand up to his party when he disagrees with their direction, and his votes reflect that.”

If you’re a member of a private sector union, ask yourself – are you better off than you were four years ago?  And if not, how is your union remaining devoted to Barack Obama and the DFL helping you?

It’s not.

You’re just a serf; you’re a source of union dues, and a biennial vote. ;

This Is Radio NARN!

Today, the Northern Alliance Radio Network brings you the best in Minnesota conservatism!

  • Ed is out on assignment today, so I’ll be in to do the voodoo I do from 1-3PM.  Today we’ll be talking religious freedom, Santorum vs Romney, Voter ID, and we’ll be talking with Rep. Michele Bachmann about her re-election bid in the Sixth.
  • Brad Carlson’s show – “The Closer” – is on from 1-3 on Sunday.   He’ll be talking with Rep. Bachmann, too; tune in!
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Into The Vortex

The management at the Strib has apparently decided that even Lori Sturdevant’s grueling one-column-a-week schedule at the paper just isn’t enough.  Now, she’s got a blog.

And there’s another surprise; even Lori Sturdevant has found a left-on-right attack that’s ruffled her feathers; Rolling Stone’s hit piece on Michele Bachmann (you expected any other kind) linking her to the gay teen suicides in Anoka County apparently even pushed her too far:

Rolling Stone magazine’s Feb. 16 issue stretches farther than this Minnesota journalist would in an otherwise compelling article about the suicides of nine LGBT teens in the Anoka-Hennepin School District and the school “neutrality” policy that served them poorly.

(Am I being overly picky in asking “how far would “this Minnesota journalist stretch to attack Michele Bachmann?  Or does Sturdevant need those “layers and layers of fact-checking and gate-keeping” more than we thought?  No matter; it’s a tangent, I know)

The stretch is the story’s attempt to link the suicides with U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, the area’s three-term congresswoman and, until last month, a GOP presidential candidate.

Of course, Rolling Stone has become the City Pages of national magazines; both publications, once occasionally the home of some adequate and sometimes brilliant journalism, have turned into the Daily Kos with band tour dates (or in the case of City Pages, the Strib comment section with restaurant and music  reviews).

Anyway – welcome to blogging, Lori!  And don’t let the avalanche of suck that is the Strib’s comment section get you down.  It sure would do it for me.

Sartre Had A Point

When it comes to D-list political punditry, hell is other peoples’ predictions.

Don’t get me wrong.  I’m someone else’s “other people”.  And my predictions have been…well, generally good.  I called the 2004 Prez and 2006 Governor’s races pretty much to the point.  I nailed the 2nd, 3rd, 6th and 8th CDs almost to the vote.  Yeah, I blew the 2006 Senate race by about ten, and there’ve been a few clinkers.  I also predicted Norm Coleman and Tom Emmer in squeakers over Senator Smalley and Governor Fauntelroy – and if you left out fraudulent  and multiple votes, I think I may still have been right.

Still, as much as I love doing predictions, there’s an intense Schadenfreud when other peoples’ predictions – especially journalistic A-listers – come a cropper.

And a cropper they came.

Funny stuff.

Two More Years

Michele Bachmann, the bete noir of the entire regional Bachmann-deranged left, freshly retired from the presidential campaign trail, has announced she’s going to go for term number four.

Bachmann declared her plans in an interview with The Associated Press. The Republican congresswoman had been mum on her plans since folding her presidential campaign after a poor showing in the Iowa caucuses earlier this month.

“I’m looking forward to coming back and bringing a strong, powerful voice to Washington, D.C.,” Bachmann said.

This is a very good thing.  While there’s been speculation that Bachmann could find herself lumped into a district with Betty McCollum (DFL – La La Land), the judges who are running the redistricting process pretty soundly rejected the DFL reasoning that’d have led to such a map.  We’re over a month away from seeing our new districts – but the Sixth looks likely to remain solidly conservative.  If reason prevails in the redistricting process, I suspect Bachmann will win by something close to ten points…

…which will send her back to DC a much more powerful legislator, a legitimate leader in a GOP caucus that seems likely at this remove to be larger and more conservative. than the current one.

Which is good for the Sixth and for Minnesota – and for conservatism and, ergo, America.

It’ll also leave the impotent shriekers of the regional Bachmann Derangement industry with something to spend their boundless, manic energy on – which makes for great entertainment for conservative bloggers, and not much more.

Anyway – good call, Rep. Bachmann.  Glad to see you back in the race.