Shot in the Dark

An Announcement

Tom Emmer is making the least mysterious mystery announcement of the political season later this morning in Delano.

Republican Tom Emmer is expected to make an announcement about his political future on Wednesday in his hometown of Delano, Minn.

Emmer is likely to announce he will run for the 6th District Congressional seat now held by Republican Michele Bachmann.

His expected announcement comes one week after Bachmann announced she will not seek re-election.

Remember – while Bachmanns squeaked by in 2012, Mitt won the district by 15 points. Alida Messinger is going to have to spend a lot to try to slander him as badly as in 2010.

The 6th is an embarrassment of riches in the GOP candidate department – but Emmer has got to be considered the 900 pound gorilla.

That said, some of the states conservative punditry has come out against an Emmer bid. I think it’s myopic to attack him too hard for losing in 2010; he was outspent 3:1 (money which supported a campaign that was utterly silent on substantive policy but was ling on corrosive personal attacks) and faced an “Independence” party candidate funded by lefties to siphon off GOP votes, at the head of a campaign that got off to a terribly shaky start, and atop a GOP slate that tanked across the board as an initial sign that the MNGOP was in big trouble.

And he lost by a whisker. Had any single one of those factors been different – the money, they campaign rollout, the effect of the slander campaign, the collapse of the MNGOP – he’d have won.

Absent tens of millions of dollars of DFL plutocrat support? At the head of what may be the states most functional GOP organization? In a R+Lots district? This isn’t 2010.

There are other candidates, to be sure. Former House Majority leader Matt Dean is a solid contender. And I think Anoka County commissioner Rhonda Sivarajah, with her campaign win in one of the bluer parts left in CD6, would be an attractive candidate as well…

…among many others.

I don’t live there, of course; I’m stuck battling against Betty McCollum.

Bit lets start the straw poll. Who do you want to see run in CD6?

Of course,

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Mitch Berg

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Comments

18 responses to “An Announcement”

  1. Chuck Avatar
    Chuck

    That is a point we have to remember…..the Democrat primary opponents didn’t run against each other, they ran against Tom Emmer. All day long they ran very nasty attacks on Mr Emmer on TV and radio. And he still only lost by a few votes.

    I’d like to see him in the House.

  2. First Ringer Avatar
    First Ringer

    I guess count me among the lukewarm to an Emmer for Congress bid.

    I vividly recall making GOTV primary phone calls for Emmer back in August of 2010 – this for a low-turn, basically non-contested primary among the hardest of the GOP hardcore. I’ve never had as much push back against a GOP candidate – and these calls were supposedly to our base!

    Emmer’s a decent guy who got buried by early attack ads, but he ran a weak campaign nonetheless. Remember his tips comments and the subsequent waiting on tables he did in response? Not exactly the campaign’s finest hours.

    Can he win the Sixth? Oh, very likely. Especially as there isn’t currently any DFL opposition. I’d just prefer a reliable conservative sans the baggage.

  3. Mr. D Avatar
    Mr. D

    Emmer’s fine with me for CD6. Frankly, I’d rather see Matt Dean take a run at Betty instead, since he’s actually in that district.

    Alida won’t both with Emmer this time. That money is going to be used against against the opponent of Gov. LePetomane.

  4. Mr. D Avatar
    Mr. D

    Er, let’s make that “Alida won’t bother with Emmer this time.”

  5. Joe Avatar
    Joe

    I’m not fond of Emmer either, having been put-off by his apparent support (or lack of opposition) to the Viking’s stadium public funding issue, among other things.

    However, as has been pointed out, Emmer was slammed viciously in his last election. Since it’s all out in the open, it will be harder for his opponents to whip up new outrage.

    Is he from the Sixth District? I guess it’s naïve to expect candidates to be from the district they’re running in – like expecting the Vikings to be comprised of only native Minnesotans – but I think I would resent an outsider jumping into a race in my district ala Travellin’ Tarryl and Hillary.

  6. Troy Avatar
    Troy

    I think Tom Emmer would ably represent me, so I hope he gets the job.

  7. Just a mom Avatar
    Just a mom

    Tom Emmer seems to be a thoroughly decent man. But he reminds me of a dog that likes to chase cars – all adrenaline and no thought for the consequences. Too many times as a co-host on his radio show he’s come out swinging on some issue without having done his homework. He’s got the right impulses but not the right temperament.

  8. Seflores Avatar
    Seflores

    I live in the 6th, can I nominate myself?
    If elected, I’ll never put legislation forward with a dead childs name attached to it.
    I’ve never made jokes about rape or snorted cocaine in the White House or otherwise.
    I’ve never been in detox nor married then divorced from an heiress I met in detox.
    I know the difference between a clip and a magazine and for that matter semi-automatic and fully automatic.
    I understand that we could base the whole Pacific fleet in Guam and the island still wouldn’t capsize.
    Ehh, come to think of it… based on this list I’m likely to be disqualified.

  9. Terry Avatar
    Terry

    The 6th district can not be the ‘white homelands’ in Minnesota.
    That’s Summit Avenue.

  10. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    I have to agree with ‘Just a mom on’.
    Mr. Emmer makes for a better radio personality than a congressional candidate. The GOP can do better. Perhaps an open primary for the GOP will bring out the real candidate who can represent the best of the district. The role of a congressman is much different than that of a state elected official.

  11. Troy Avatar
    Troy

    It may be hard to find a better endorsement than the disapproval of Emery. *shrug*

  12. Joe Doakes Avatar
    Joe Doakes

    No, Emery, the GOP can’t do better. Not talking about Emmer’s credentials or qualifications, I’m talking about DFL scorched-earth politics, which is the real candidate-killer in Minnesota.

    Whoever is nominated will immediately be assailed by the DFL as an extremist hater, which the candidate will deny. The media will dutifully report the “he-said-she-said” leaving low information voters with a bad impression. Then DFL support groups will release polls showing nobody likes the GOP candidate and the editorial pages will warn readers not to hang out with that loser but to join the cool kids, instead. Happens every election cycle.

    Much to be said for picking somebody who already has been through that Hell and hopefully has learned how to navigate it better this time. Which is precisely what the DFL does not want. Hence, Doug’s disapproval.
    .

  13. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    All political parties try to frame issues and candidates while attempting to persuade voters. Cry me a river. The other retreads that are often mentioned are not strong candidates either. But either way, it’s the GOP’s race to lose.

  14. Terry Avatar
    Terry

    “All political parties try to frame issues and candidates while attempting to persuade voters”
    The problem occurs when media outlets do this while claiming to be unbiased, or at least non-partisan.

  15. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    I read the WSJ this morning and I listened to Rand Paul speak @ the Ronald Reagan Library on NPR this afternoon. I imagine there are a wide variety of folks that read the WSJ as well as listen to NPR. I consume news from a wide range of sources. I hope most others afford themselves the same opportunity as well.

    As an aside, I came away rather impressed with Mr. Paul and his presentation. Perhaps other listeners of NPR today had the opportunity to be impressed by Mr. Paul as well.

  16. Night Writer Avatar
    Night Writer

    Emery, no doubt they did. And then their heads exploded.

  17. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    I’d pay a lot more attention to libertarians if they weren’t such terrible economists. There’s much to like with the movement, but when it comes to economics, oh boy.

  18. Terry Avatar
    Terry

    It’s ironic that Libertarians have the same idea of man-as-a-being-defined-by-economics as the Marxists. Libertarians will fight for your freedom because they believe that, if you are free, economics will dictate your choices (or you will perish).

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