Shot in the Dark

Calculated Risk

Joe Doakes, formerly of Como Park, emails:

Scott Johnson from Powerline has a column explaining why Trump’s tariffs are calculated incorrectly and are therefore too high.  He gives a formula from some academics showing that the inelasticity of trade was improperly factored into setting our new rates.
Missing the point, Scott.  The point is foreign governments have been taking advantage of our generosity for years and it’s time to fix that. Yes, we’re a party to GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) but renegotiations have been stalled for decades – too many rice bowls at stake – so Trump’s unilateral new tariffs are a way to break the stalemate.
 
The specifics of Trump’s tariffs don’t matter, 10% on penguins or 90% on Vietnam, these numbers are just the opening round of negotiation.  It’s like the guy selling sombreros on the beach in Mazatlan, or the guy selling rugs in the souk in Marrakech.  His opening offer is ridiculous because you are expected to bargain with him. That’s the accepted practice in that culture.  So, too, in every real estate deal, which is where Trump learned his lessons.  You always set the listing price high to give yourself room to negotiate down.  And now we’re seeing it’s also true in setting foreign trade policy, as more than four dozen countries have already lined up to renegotiate their trade policy with us.
 
Scott’s column is so typical for RINOs. The other side can state any lie and it’s accepted at face value while our facts are scrutinized and debated endlessly, with the result that the opposition’s policies get enacted but ours get nibbled to death by ducks quacking around our ankles.  With friends like that . . . . . . .
 
Joe Doakes
 
Gonna reject the premise that Scott’s a “RINO”.  
 
Might he be guilty of, as Selena Zito once said, “taking Trump literally but not seriously?”  Perhaps.  It’s easy to do.

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13 responses to “Calculated Risk”

  1. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    I am not the world’s best negotiator, but I do know that if you start with a completely unreasonable position, you tend to tick off the people you’re working with and not get as good a deal as you would have if you’d started with a halfway reasonable position. Might have something to to with Trump’s six business bankruptcies, IMO.

    Side note is that taxes are supposed to be set by Congress, per Article 1. I really don’t like what Trump is doing here, though I am very open to seeing a revenue tariff as wise, and it’s long past time to assess punitive tariffs on countries that are actually opposed to us like Russia.

  2. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    Joe is dead on the money. It is the “art of the deal”. My livelihood is directly impacted by this tariff kerfuffle and yet I am betting it will work out in my favor. It is about time US stopped being the doormat and the piggy bank of the entire world. And Joe is also absolutely on the money regarding Scott – he may not be a RINO but he fell into the RINO “justification” trap. US has a winning hand – we are the ONLY market in the world (size-wise) that can pay for all the crap everybody else is producing. If China does not sell to US, they will not be able to sell anywhere else, they already saturated ALL other markets. This trade war will devastate their economy far more than it already is. But even more serious is Chinese currency manipulation. If yuan is allowed to float, watch out! I just hope Scott and RINOs let Trump do his thing and get the f*** out of the way. Oh, and fair tariffs cannot work without tax cuts because prices will go up and we all need additional funds to cover that inflation. Printing money and higher wages are not the right way to solve that, only tax cuts can do it. I hope somebody in the know gets that message out and keeps hammering at it. Going back to old times when US government was funded by tariffs and there was no income tax. Imagine that! More! Faster! Winning!

  3. ArthurRadley Avatar
    ArthurRadley

    “ Gonna reject the premise that Scott’s a “RINO”.

    RINO is an old and busted tag. Neocon is the new tag hotness being applied to the same old and busted people.
    It’s factual and applies the same amount of taint.

  4. bosshoss429 Avatar
    bosshoss429

    Asians, culturally, are negotiators. When you buy something from a shopkeeper, they expect it. Although it was years ago while I was in Okinawa, Thailand and the PI, I learned that lesson fast. In fact, the Vietnamese owner of my yard service, loves to negotiate on the projects he proposes and loves the fact that I’m a sales geek. Now, we just have to wait until Chairman Xi decides that if he doesn’t negotiate, he’s screwed. Gordon Chang is probably the foremost authority on China and how they work. He was on a show on Tuesday and said essentially, that Xi has no cards to play.

  5. jdm Avatar
    jdm

    The Republican Party is now Trump’s as much as our local Trump Skeptics might hate it. And yes, while they’re a bit more subtle now than they were last year, they continue to act like RINOs under this new ownership.

    Mr Doakes and Mr jpa are both correct.

  6. John "Bigman" Jones Avatar
    John “Bigman” Jones

    I would concede that in Minnesota, Scott Johnson is not considered a Republican In Name Only. He is every bit as much a mainstream Minnesota Republican as Arnie Carlson or Dave Durnberger, nothing like that wild man Rudy Boschwitz.

    Which is the problem: the Republican party everywhere is full of Mitt Romneys instead of Newt Gingriches. Restoring American greatness means we need fewer people worried about getting invited to fancy dinner parties and more people willing to vote NO at every level of government.

    Not RINO. Tuxedo Republican. If the suit fits . . . .

  7. ArthurRadley Avatar
    ArthurRadley

    The Republican party that brought you the Bush’s, the McCains, Mitt Romney, Sean Hannity, the Cheney’s, Cryin’ Adam Kinzinger and yes, Ronald Reagan.
    These people are not your friends.

    Trump is an asshole, and yes, he’s got a big Hebrew National up his ass, but he is tipping over the desks and really tearing it up. He is putting fire in the bellies of young guys who had been beat down by all this anti-white bullshit but now see a light at the end of the tunnel.

    Good riddance to the last of the Neocons.

  8. John "Bigman" Jones Avatar
    John “Bigman” Jones

    So after all the Liberal angst and agony, the RINO caterwauling and crying, the media wailing and gnashing of teeth about the end of the world economy, the stock market, blues, jazz, and yes, even rock-and-roll . . . Trump won again. The world is beating a path to his door to sign fairer trade deals. It’s almost as if the guy who wrote The Art of the Deal knows what he’s talking about.

    https://x.com/TheBabylonBee/status/1910090372849467896?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1910090372849467896%7Ctwgr%5E42652848d4cd615c280e3e3e52d519172843cb00%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Finstapundit.com%2F713617%2F

  9. bosshoss429 Avatar
    bosshoss429

    jdm
    Not completely. There are still some rogues trying to derail him. Tom Cotton, whose wife is a gubmint lawyer and Lindsay Graham, are funneling USAID money to a supposed GOP benevolent fund, to the tune of $105 million. John Cornyn, Dan Sullivan, James Lankford (the moron behind the immigration bill who caved to the Dems and came up with the 5,000 encounters per day clause) and Dan Crenshaw are all RINO scum.

  10. BradC Avatar
    BradC

    Gonna reject the premise that Scott’s a “RINO”.

    Yup. Besides, that term has more than reached its shelf life, thanks in large part to those who believe it’s every Republicans’ role to performatively hump Trump’s leg in the aftermath of everything he says and does. Rather ironic since many of these same people are busy excoriating former Biden officials for their in unison gaslighting on his declining mental and physical health.

  11. John "Bigman" Jones Avatar
    John “Bigman” Jones

    Trump Derangement Syndrome is when people are so blinded by personal dislike of Donald Trump that they lose sight of the objective. Let’s take Trump out of the picture. Focus on the objective.

    How can you tell if someone is a Republican in principle or in name only? Here’s the Republican party platform adopted one year ago.

    https://www.gop.com/press-release/icymi-rnc-platform-committee-adopts-2024-republican-party-platform/

    Scroll down to see the 20 promises. Notice that Trump is doing exactly what the Republican Party Platform promised. Now tell me which of those promises do you NOT agree with? Which of them might be acceptable in a more limited form but only if implemented after further study in a few years?

    Some people call themselves Catholics but support divorce and abortion. They are Catholics in name only. The proper term for those people is Protestants.

    Some people call themselves Republican but don’t agree with taking vigorous action to implement the Republican Party Platform as quickly as possible. What’s the proper term for those people?

  12. jdm Avatar
    jdm

    ^ Careful there, Mr Jones. Some might think you’re performatively humping Trump’s leg.

  13. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    John, there is TDS, yes, and then there is the rightful question of what will result when a President–Obama, Biden, Trump, whoever–governs by executive order instead of working with Congress. At best, you end up with temporary results which are voided almost as soon as someone of the other party is elected, and at worst, you get horrific results when the autocrat makes decisions without the correcting checks and balances designed into the Constitution.

    Regarding the list in itself, there are actually a number of things I find problematic. It’s impossible (and unadvisable) to seal the border, hugely problematic to deport that many people, Trump has no real proposals that would end inflation, other countries are going to have something to say about whether the USA is indeed the dominant energy producer, we do not necessarily want to stop outsourcing when other countries have legitimate competitive advantage (e.g. chocolate and coffee producers), there is no good reason to exempt tip income and not other income, Trump’s executive orders do anything but defend the Constitution and Bill of Rights, Trump’s wet kisses for Putin will cause (not prevent) war, he’s actually weaponizing government against his opponents already, and a lot more.

    I’m as conservative as they come, and that is why I am very concerned about how Trump is doing things. It simply will not work.

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