Shot in the Dark

The Line In The Sod

The Legislature – really the GOP majority – has released its take on Congressional redistricting.

Two points:

Elections Have Consequences: If adopted – more later – this map will have some pretty hefty consequences.  While it leaves the three “safest” districts in the state – the solid DFL 4th and 5th, and the very red 6th – pretty much as is (if anything, more solid), it makes some changes that could have impact on the 2012 House races.

  • It cuts Tim Walz’ mushy-left stronghold Mankato out of the 1st CD, putting it into John Kline’s solidly-conservative 2nd District.  This means the 1st CD’s fundamentally conservative, rural nature can be maintained.  It’ll be interesting to see how the DFL rationalizes pushing back against this, while fighting to keep the 5th and 6th districts uncorruptedly institutional-blue.
  • Other than adding Mankato, the 2nd CD stays pretty solid.
  • The 3rd CD’s “purple” days would seem to be over, with the addition of a stretch of solid red to its southwest.
  • The 4th and 5th CDs become brighter-blue than before, from the looks of it.
  • The 6th appears to jettison most of St. Cloud – the one place where Michele Bachmann faces serious opposition – and consolidate solid-red Wright County
  • The 7th morphs immensely, losing the Red River Valley (and, it’d seem, Colin Peterson) and picking up Saint Cloud (blueish) and the far-northern Twin Cities exurbs currently in the 8th CD.
  • The 8th swoops west, covering the entire northern part of the state, diluting the solid-blue Duluth and Arrowhead areas with good conservative northwestern counties.

Gerrymandering? That’s the claim you’re seeing from some lefties.  I think it’s worthwhile to note that most of the changes – the First, Seventh and Eighth – actually undo some of the gerrymandering that took place on the DFL’s watch (the Ventura-era court-drawn settlement in 2000 favored the DFL; Arne Carlson completely caved to the DFL in 1990, court settlement notwithstanding.   The DFL isn’t going to like it – but redistricting isn’t supposed to be predicated on the happiness of the party that loses the election.

Dayton has said he won’t pass any redistricting plan that doesn’t have “bipartisan support” – and when DFLers say “bipartisan support”, what they mean is they want to nag the GOP into giving them a victory they didn’t earn at the polls.  There was no talk of “bipartisanship” when the DFL controlled the process with an iron fist; it’s disingenuous, and playing to the ignorant (but typical politics) that they demand it now.

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Mitch Berg

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23 responses to “The Line In The Sod”

  1. K-Rod Avatar
    K-Rod

    How can someone that elected Phil Krinkie or Linda Runbeck be happy with a map that sticks them in the stinking CD 4 Betty! socialist? Since when are 2nd ringers big city metropolitans?

  2. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    Is inclusion of Lake Superior into 8th a consolation to dimlibs so they can register lake trout to vote?

  3. Kermit Avatar
    Kermit

    Sigh. I will be stuck with a racist DFL stooge as my “representative” in perpetuity.

  4. MyGovIsNuts Avatar
    MyGovIsNuts

    Correction: Carlson piddled the 1992 redistricting, BY FORGETTING TO VETO THE DAMN THING, THAT WAS SITTING ON HIS DESK.

    That’s right, folks. Carlson was SO incompetent that he had the bill on his desk and FORGOT to veto it.

    Now, as far as CD3 goes, Paulsen would be safer than even Bachmann. McLeod and Carver counties are GOP heaven, nearly to the extent Mpls is for the Demoncrats. And he dumps some of that lousy liberal St. Louis Park that is DFL.

    Also, note that Mankato is still in Walz district. North Mankato would move to the Second. But not liberal loonies at Mankato State University.

  5. Chuck Avatar
    Chuck

    Looks like I am still in Betty “angry teabaggers” McCallum’s domain. Damn.

    Now I wonder where Teryle Clarke is going to rent a PO box from so she can run for Congress there?

    But this map looks very ungerrymandered. A lot of lefies complained that northern Twin Cities suburbs have encrotched into Big Jim Oberstar’s district (hence the Chip win), so this takes care of that. Making the 8th one bigass East-West district across the northern end of the state. Same with 7th. Makes more sense to be an across the state district then that goofy long narrow one it was before.

  6. bosshoss429 Avatar
    bosshoss429

    Commie Collin Peterson is already squawking like a magpie, but he’s also bragging that they know they can’t beat me…yadda, yadda.

    When are Iron Rangers going to realize that demonRATs are smiling to their faces while stabbing thme in the back, trying to take their guns, track their mileage and drive off business?

  7. Ben Avatar
    Ben

    I guess the better question would be would judges enforce this redistricting plan because we all know its going to court. I am not being a smartass since this is my first redistricting battle, is this a realistic possibility or a pipe dream?

  8. Ben Avatar
    Ben

    so apparently a lot of people live out on the waters of Lake Superior? Interesting I didn’t know that

  9. bubbasan Avatar
    bubbasan

    It would take some doing to get the courts to undermine this one; as far as I can tell, it honors city and county boundaries for the most part, and the districts are reasonably compact. It’s nothing like what the Democrats are doing in Arkansas.

  10. Ben Avatar
    Ben

    where there’s a will there is a way bubba, I’d bet money the courts hack away at this as much as they “legally” can

  11. joelr Avatar
    joelr

    I’m reminded of the tempest over filibusters. When the Republicans had the majority in the US Senate, filibusters were, if you believed the Democrats, the secular equivalent of a sacrament; last year, before the election, it was the work of the secular Devil. Redrawing districts for DFL advantage? Same thing.

  12. Bill C Avatar
    Bill C

    Legally and technically, the state’s border covers that portion of Lake Superior. It doesn’t just end at the shoreline like most outlines of the state imply. That’s why the water is included in CD8.

  13. Kirien Avatar
    Kirien

    The next time, Mr. Berg, you want to spout the words “elections have consequences” with regards to redistricting you might want to consider these two simple facts:

    1: If the Democrats controlled the legislature there is no way in hell you or any other Republican would accept a proposed redistricting plan from the Democrats just because the Democrats controlled the legislature.

    2: You might want to bother to remember that the governor’s election was won by a Democrats…so you and your fellow republicans might want to get it through your heads that the people in this state don’t want one party control. Yes, your party controls the legislature. Big whoop. That isn’t the sum total of the state government. And unlike Dayton, your party can very well lose the legislature next year.

    So I would suggest that you start prodding your party back to the middle and suggest they compromise with the Democrats on redistricting. After all..as the governor’s election proves…elections have consequences.

    Your party worries so much about voter fraud…but apparently your party wants to so completely rig the elections in its favor. Lets see..what was that term. Ah yes…election fraud. What, Mr. Berg? Your party can’t win without cheating and rigging the system?

  14. Mitch Berg Avatar
    Mitch Berg

    Kirien,

    Such contempt oozing through your writing. All of it unearned!:

    1: If the Democrats controlled the legislature there is no way in hell you or any other Republican would accept a proposed redistricting plan from the Democrats just because the Democrats controlled the legislature

    Gosh. D’ya think?

    Of course.

    I”m merely telling people why the Dems are wrong to oppose this plan.

    2: You might want to bother to remember that the governor’s election was won by a Democrats…so you and your fellow republicans might want to get it through your heads that the people in this state don’t want one party control.

    So you think “the people of Minnesota” made an organic, collective decision to split power in this state?

    Nonsense. Dayton won (barely) for two reasons; name recognition, and an epic, toxic, unanswered sleaze campaign that put just enough doubt in the mind of the unengaged voter (the ones that don’t start thinking about elections until October) to make them not vote Emmer.

    No more.

    Yes, your party controls the legislature. Big whoop. That isn’t the sum total of the state government.

    No, but it’s the part that real people actually pay attention to when voting. Unlike, it seems, the governor race.

    And unlike Dayton, your party can very well lose the legislature next year.

    Sure. But we won’t.

    So I would suggest that you start prodding your party back to the middle and suggest they compromise with the Democrats on redistricting. After all..as the governor’s election proves…elections have consequences.

    Nah. The legislative majority is doing what they were sent to Saint Paul to do. The media, the DFL and those who don’t pay attention are having the victorian vapours. No skin off my teeth.

    Your party worries so much about voter fraud…but apparently your party wants to so completely rig the elections in its favor. Lets see..what was that term. Ah yes…election fraud. What, Mr. Berg? Your party can’t win without cheating and rigging the system?

    Well, that’s a fairly jaundiced way of reporting an open, transparent redistricting proposal.

    Bring an A game, if you have one…

  15. Kermit Avatar
    Kermit

    Since when did the DFL give a rat’s ass what the people in this state want? After fifty years I’m still waiting for some evidence.

    As to elections having consequences, yes they do. The election of Obama has turned the USA into a banana republic where the Executive rules by fiat, we have massive unemployment, a war raging on our southern border that is being ignored by Washington and the nation now has a $14 trillion debt. Consequences indeed.

  16. Bill C Avatar
    Bill C

    Dayton won (barely) for two reasons

    IMHO, three: Tom Horner. If he hadn’t been in the election, Emmer would have won with a large enough lead that no recount would have been necessary (or justified).

  17. joelr Avatar
    joelr

    Dayton won (barely) for two reasons; name recognition, and an epic, toxic, unanswered sleaze campaign that put just enough doubt in the mind of the unengaged voter (the ones that don’t start thinking about elections until October) to make them not vote Emmer.
    I think that the splitting of the We’reSmartEnoughToNotWantDayton vote had a lot more to do with it; YMMV.

  18. Kermit Avatar
    Kermit

    Let Kirien maintain his fantasy. If all he has to hang his hat on is Governor Moonbeam, he should be entitled to a little sympathy.

  19. Scott Hughes Avatar
    Scott Hughes

    Kirien Says: “You might want to bother to remember that the governor’s election was won by a Democrats…”

    Enjoying a little selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors with your gin Kirien? Charlie Sheen claims he’s also “Winning”. Rumor has it Hazelden is keeping a cot ready for both the Gov and Sheen.

    bosshoss429 Says:”Commie Collin Peterson is already squawking like a magpie…”

    We’ll be looking forward to the opportunity to “Oberstar” him into retirement.

  20. K-Rod Avatar
    K-Rod

    I still don’t know why you would want to lump 2nd/3rd ring suburb folks with big city folks INSTEAD of lumping big city folks with other big city folks accross a river.

  21. Ben Avatar
    Ben

    another hit and run liberal commentator. I wonder if he will respond to Mitch, probably not. And it’s not like Dayton won in a landslide, he won by 8,000 freakin votes in an election that cast around 2.3 million I believe. I was at a Republican meeting last night and do you realize if we had gotten or Identified 2 more Emmer supporters in each precinct he would have won, ugh. Besides Kierian if you think Dayton is going to last all 4 years without going into rehab you are delusional. He’s about ready to snap, as someone who suffers something similar to him he’s a ticking time bomb.

  22. Ben Avatar
    Ben

    Now I wonder where Teryle Clarke is going to rent a PO box from so she can run for Congress there?

    Apparently Duluth…

    http://www.minnpost.com/dailyglean/2011/05/09/28104/tarryl_clark_to_challenge_chip_cravaack_in_8th_district

  23. Troy Avatar
    Troy

    Kirien paraphrased:

    “I suggest you give up any advantage that controlling both houses gives you”

    Yeah, thanks for the great advice, fool.

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