Shot in the Dark

The Numbers

The top-line number seems depressing, if you’re a Republican. And the DFL wants to double that down while it can:

https://twitter.com/MinnesotaDFL/status/1932945176298745885

I know, I know – it’s Survey USA. They oversample metro voters and Democrats.

It’s the second-tier result that’s interesting; on the question of whether he should run for Governor again:

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1932942948162781519

He’s underwater among independents.  I think that’s a first; for some reason, “independent” voters have had a thing for the little Mussolini.  

So you can expect a huge PR effort to burnish his image as he tries to make that two year jump from 2026 to 2028 in some kind of office.  

Here’s the biggest takeaway to me:  you can ask youself who those 58% of idiots are.  Even if you write off a few percent because it’s a SUSA poll, that still means his approval is way above water.  

Which means that the “shut down the government and stick with pure conservative principle” crowd –  I’m looking at you, Action 4 Liberty – would be swimming up the PR stream from the word go, trying to convince voters of the merits of a government shutdown when they still don’t see what national voters plainly saw.  

I’m just the messenger.   

Is there another way to look at this?

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Mitch Berg

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10 responses to “The Numbers”

  1. John "Bigman" Jones Avatar
    John “Bigman” Jones

    I acknowledge the polls show Minnesotans are dumber than most Americans. Dumb voters is not the problem. Getting Republicans elected is not the problem. The problem is what Republicans won’t do when they do get elected; specifically, color outside the lines, refuse to play by the rules, walk away from the stacked deck, upset the rigged game.

    There’s an old saying in poker: “If you look around the table and can’t identify the patsy, you’re the patsy.” Minnesota politics feels like that.

    This Spring, when Democrats were hiding and the Secretary of State refused to let Republicans force a quorum, was the perfect opportunity to say, “Okay, then, we’re going home. Shut it all down.” Later, when Democrats had parity, the Republicans still could have said, “We’re not coming back, you have no quorum, shut it all down.” If necessary, they could have hid in Chicago (adopting Wisconsin Democrat tactics) to avoid a quorum.

    Yes, they would have been roasted in the press. They were anyway and always will be. Get over it.

    The objective of the shut down is not to shut down the government, the objective is to force the Governor to the bargaining table to avoid the shut down. Until that happens, Republican have no power even if they control both chambers.

    I applaud the current members for achieving as much as they did, working within the rules. I just wish they had the vision to see alternatives.

  2. jdm Avatar
    jdm

    ^ I second.

  3. SmithStCrx Avatar
    SmithStCrx

    John and JDM,
    If the House GOP had done that, Walz’s approval would be north of 65%. Republicans in Minnesota do not win Shutdown Politics, ever. Heck, when the DFL took their ball and went home while the GOP stayed and at least tried to get things done, but Independents swung to the GOP. Public Opinion is why the DFL cut the deal they did and came back before they had 67 votes.
    The bigger problem is that Minnesota Voters have the attention span and memory of brain dead guppy. That’s why running against Walz’s 2020 Covid power grab didn’t work in 2022, and running against the DFL hissy fit of 2025 won’t work in 2026. OTOH, the DFL has the entire Media that would constantly remind everyone about the GOP’s Shutdown if they’d down what you suggest. The playing field is not level.
    The question next year will be what issue are the Voters paying attention to that the GOP can blame on Walz and Ellison?

  4. John "Bigman" Jones Avatar
    John “Bigman” Jones

    If the GOP had shut down the state, and forced the Governor to the bargaining table, which put his approval north of 65%, what would Walz do?

    Refuse to negotiate, leave the state shut down, and blame Republicans? Capitulate to reopen the state, and blame Republicans?

    Either way, Republicans get blamed. But my way, at least there’s a chance to claw back some of the money, shut down some of the programs, eliminate some of the idiocy of the typical DFL session.

    What good is having power if you’re afraid to use it?

  5. bosshoss429 Avatar
    bosshoss429

    We all recognize that the DemoCommies conveniently slid $10 million worth of new taxes in their plan last year, to go into effect in 2026. This illustrates Smith’s point to an extent. The state DFL is counting on the fact that their base has a short memory, forgetting how much their heroes cost them financially. Any Republican running for office in 2026, needs to hand out copies of the list of all of those new taxes, highlighting who will be affected. I had a conversation about this with a couple in their late 60’s at a presentation about Medicare last week. They are looking forward to their retirement next year. Of course, they told me that wasn’t true, so I advised them to go to the MN government website and look, adding that they might not be able to afford to live here.
    Not sure if they did, but, if they weren’t shocked and pissed off, I didn’t read them very well.

  6. bobby b Avatar
    bobby b

    Face facts: This is a woke state. It is going to be a woke state for a long time.

    We can fight like hell to maybe tread water for a short period of time (yay!) or we can take our money and talents and leave.

  7. ArthurRadley Avatar
    ArthurRadley

    This is as good as it will ever get in Minnesota. If this isn’t the kind of place you want to be; if leftist trash isn’t the kind of people you want to be with, common sense says it’s time to pack it up and leave.

    Otherwise you had better learn to enjoy tasty shit tacos for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

  8. In The Mailbox: 06.13.25 (Afternoon Edition) : The Other McCain

    […] RIPPED FROM THE HEADLINES American Conservative: Ukraine’s ‘Spider’s Web’ Could Ensnare Kiev and the West American Greatness: NJ Rep. LaMonica McIver Hit With Federal Charges, Faces 17 Years in Prison, Rep. Stefanik Blasts ‘Heartless’ Gov. Hochul For Not Knowing Names of ‘Illegals Who Burned Alive, Raped, Molested New Yorkers’, Trump Warns ‘Any’ Protesters at Military Parade Will Be ‘Met With Heavy Force’, House Oversight Committee Launches Investigation into Neville Singham, and Senator Chris Murphy Is Doing What? American Thinker: Learn From The Romans – You Cannot Welcome Armed, Unassimilated Enemies, No One’s Illegal on Stolen Land—And Other Nonsense Shouted Between Acts of Arson, Our Fiery but Mostly Peaceful Foreign Invasion, and White Lives Don’t Matter Animal Magnetism: Animal’s Hump Day News, also, Animal’s Red Thursday News Behind The Black: SpaceX launches 26 more Starlink satellites, Voyager Technologies raises nearly $400 million in first public stock offering, Europe’s Solar Orbiter takes first images of the Sun’s south pole, Axiom manned mission delayed further because of new Zvezda leaks on ISS, and Why Kennedy’s decision to fire everyone at the CDC advisory panel was only a start CDR Salamander: Send Our Best & Brightest To Grad School? Dana Loesch: Israel Strikes Iran Don Surber: NYT complains Florida’s taxes are too low Gates Of Vienna: The New, Improved Greta Thunberg, All Hell is Breaking Loose, and The Balloon Goes Up Matt Taibbi: In Defense of Terry Moran Shark Tank: Uthmeier Announces Initiative To Protect ICE Agents From Doxxing Shot In The Dark: The Numbers […]

  9. golfdoc50 Avatar
    golfdoc50

    Be that as it may, it was wonderful to watch Tom Emmer cut Tampon Tim a new one about the ICE/Gestapo libel.

  10. Jay Dee Avatar
    Jay Dee

    Actually it could be that people have discovered how much fun it is to lie their gluteus maximus off to telephone surveys. I have a friend who has taken lying to telephone surveys to an art form. He answers like he is a 20 something black trans lesbian and a progressive’s progressive. I especially love his advocacy for the differentially living (dead people) right to vote.

    Political activists use these surveys to attempt to convince people that everyone else is voting this way. You should too. They also drive professional politicians to make truly stupid decisions.

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