As The Forefathers Warned

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113 responses to “As The Forefathers Warned”

1. 

   Vlad the Impaler

   March 16, 2023

   I have to say, Mr. Bubble, as ignorant and uneducated as I found Klan members to be, they defended their positions with far more erudition than you defend yours.

   I guess when you have truth and facts working with you, it gives an unfair advantage… Even to morons.

2. 

   Vlad the Impaler

   March 16, 2023

   Seriously, Mr. Bubble…when Russia declares an end to hostilities, and settles into their new territory (which I predicted they’d own from day one), rAT Emery will simply act like it never happened and go on to his next buffoonery…. What will you do?

3. 

   Emery

   March 16, 2023

   Russia’s combat forces have been devastated over the first year of the war, and professional observers like ISW indicate that Russia no longer has the combat power to mount major offensives. Putin has deployed everything he has available to Ukraine now, and yet has not been able to make any significant advances- and are unlikely to make any operationally significant advances in the future either.

   There are several reasons for this that go beyond the numbers.

   First, the Russian troops fighting this war for Putin have extremely poor morale, are poorly trained, poorly led, and poorly equipped.

   • They have extremely poor morale because most of them are conscripts there against their will, are poorly paid, do not trust their commanders, have poor provisions and equipment, and are suffering massive casualties. Russia has resorted to ‘human wave’ assaults similar to World War I ‘over the top’ assaults that have resulted in massive casualties, and wounded soldiers are sometimes left for dead. Those that make it back receive poor medical care. There is also resentment and conflicts within the ranks, as prisoner-conscripts mix with career soldiers, who mix with paramilitary forces, who mix with regular conscripts, who mix with irregular forces and volunteer forces, all amidst different ethnic groups, etc. There are many incidents of Russian soldiers and commanders being killed or beaten by other Russian soldiers for various offenses.

   • They’re poorly trained as most Russian troops are conscripts with very limited training—just a few months at most. And there are reports of troops trained for artillery for example, being used as infantry soldiers. Most of the highly trained, career soldiers like the airborne (VDV) soldiers have been killed or returned home as casualties, so there is less and less of a knowledge base to build on. Many of the officers responsible for training new soldiers were also sent to the front lines in Ukraine, further depleting Russia’s ability to train new soldiers.

   • They’re also poorly led as most of the Russian junior officers have also been casualties in the war, and so competent leadership at the unit level is very poor and inexperienced. Even more senior commanders have been widely criticized for significant tactical and strategic failures. The generals in charge of prosecuting the war in Ukraine have been replaced regularly over the last year. Russian forces also operate with outdated Soviet-era military principles and a centralized command structure generally inferior to the more modern NATO-based principles and command structure Ukrainian forces use.

   • They’re also poorly equipped as they’re often given poorly maintained, outdated small arms, provisions are poor, many/most don’t have body armor, night goggles, and other key equipment that most Ukrainians have.

   On a basic, intuitive level, a military force with poor morale, poorly trained, led, and equipped, and operating outside their country, seldom win a war against a near-equal or superior force.

   Ukrainian forces have higher morale, are better trained, equipped, and led than Russian forces. They have a disadvantage in numbers when it comes to military equipment, munitions, and soldiers, but this gap has been closing since the outbreak of the war and will continue to close in the coming months. And while at a disadvantage in numbers, Ukrainian forces generally have superior arms and munitions that also help make up the deficit. For example, Ukrainian forces have more smart bombs and artillery than Russian forces- such as HIMARS for example- which allows Ukrainian forces to exact more damage to the Russian military with relatively few munitions, while Russian forces use an average of 4x the artillery shells Ukrainian forces use per day, but without effect. As has been the case with slightly superior numbers of Russian soldiers.

   All of the above has shown itself in terms of battlefield success. Russian forces have suffered several major defeats in battles around Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lyman, and Kherson since the war began, and have lost over 50% of the territory gained since the start of the war. And over the course of the war so far, Russia has suffered casualties of over 200,000 men, forcing a mobilization of 300,000 more men, most of which are not as well trained or have as good a morale as the men they replaced.

   Russia has also lost two-thirds of its main battle tanks and has gone through similar amounts of munitions and suffered similar losses in armored vehicles. They are now being forced to conserve artillery for the first time. The tanks and armored vehicles cannot be replaced anytime soon. Worse, of the tank losses, 500 were abandoned intact to Ukrainian forces who now employ them against Russian forces.

   All this gets us to ISW’s assessment, which is echoed by many other military experts, that Russia does not have the conventional military capability to achieve its objectives in Ukraine, or even make any more significant gains over what it has currently, and any offensives are likely to culminate in the coming months having achieved very little. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are preparing for counteroffensives in the coming months, as they receive more advanced weapon systems from the West and may well continue to gain significant territory currently occupied by Russian forces. This, in turn, will make Russian positions in Ukraine increasingly untenable, necessitating a withdrawal.

   At some point, reverses on the battlefield will have an impact on public support for the war, particularly in the context of the massive casualties suffered, financial declines, and further mobilization attempts. So far, mobilization has targeted ethnic minorities in rural regions of Russia, along with prisoners, for fear of public backlash, which was still significant. Support for the war in Russia declined significantly after the mobilization decree. Putin does not dare to mobilize ethnic Russians in big cities for fear of an even stronger backlash that would threaten political stability and his hold on power.

   And so while Russia could maintain the war in Ukraine from a financial perspective for another couple years perhaps, it will be much more difficult for Putin to maintain the war if his forces are unable to win on the battlefield, which is increasingly the case.

   I would not be surprised if Putin was forced to effectively abandon the war by the end of this year, and potentially the end of this summer.

4. 

   Vlad the Impaler

   March 16, 2023

   Thank you, Bakhmut Bob!

   🤣🤣🤣🤡

5. 

   Emery

   March 16, 2023

   Authoritarianism eventually eats itself.

6. 

   bikebubba

   March 16, 2023

   “When Russia declares an end to hostilities”.

   Um, Kremlin Tom, some people suggest that for a war to end, both sides need to decide to stop fighting. If it were possible for Russia to unilaterally end hostilities, they should have done so eight years ago and spared the lives of 160,000 Russians.

   Of course, had they withdrawn from Ukraine, they could have done exactly that. Oopsie.

   Interesting perspective on Bakhmut today from CNN; that the horrific slaughter of Russian forces there was actually orchestrated to sideline “Putin’s chef” from rivaling Russian armed forces. Things are getting interesting in Moscow as people appear to be jockeying for position in what I hope is a post-Putin era. Hopefully it happens before too many more Russians (and Ukrainians) lose their lives needlessly.

7. 

   Vlad the Impaler

   March 16, 2023

   Well, that’s a good point, Bikebubble.

   The Russian Federation has what they want; repatriation of their persecuted countrymen, and a buffer against the degenerate West.. They have no further need to fight.

   Your degenerate, criminal hero, Zelensky, on the other hand, has other motivations…namely more cash. He will continue to send his young men into a certain death as long as flaming assholes like you continue to support assholes in the US Congress to keep the grift going.

   How much blood does it take to satisfy you self serving, blood thirsty assholes, Bikebubble? How many more “children’s hospitals” are you willing to sacrifice?

8. 

   Vlad the Impaler

   March 16, 2023

   “Interesting perspective on Bakhmut today from CNN; ”

   But does Wikipedia concur??

9. 

   AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis

   March 17, 2023

   what will he do??
   Find a doctor who isn’t a nutcase?

10. 

    John “Bigman” Jones

    March 17, 2023

    Here is the map from a year ago, March 17, 2022

    https://liveuamap.com/en/time/17.03.2022

    Here is the map from today, March 17, 2023, after one year of sanctions and weapons and support from the rest of the world

    https://liveuamap.com/en/time/17.03.2023

    For a country that’s about to get its ass handed to it, Russia is doing remarkably well on the battlefield.

11. 

    bikebubba

    March 17, 2023

    Yes, Kremlin Tom, the best way to deal with a dictator with a history of genocide is to give him what he wants. Just ask Neville Chamberlain.

    Yes, John, progress is slow. The Russians tend to hold their ground until their supply chain collapses, which is what happened in Kherson and near Kharkiv, and it’s what happened in the north as well. It’s still better than another Holodomor.

12. 

    AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis

    March 17, 2023

    So many people making predictions about things they know nothing about.

13. 

    Emery

    March 17, 2023

    And then there’s you — all up in arms about gender…,

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