Shot in the Dark

This Is What Dismantlement Looks Like

Oddly enough, when you work for a boss that actively disparages, nay, defames the work you do, loudly, constantly and in public, employees are going to react.

The numbers for the Minneapolis Police Department are well-nigh catastrophic:

https://twitter.com/EChalouxKSTP/status/1305850871918534658

Nearly 40% attrition in four months. And I suspect the recruit stream has not only dwindled to a trickle, but is heavily made up of people you don’t want wearing badges and carrying guns.

Historically? Minneapolis went through similar (albeit not nearly so drastic) problems in the nineties, and before that in the seventies – and the city paid the price in terms of officer quality both times.

This could well make both of those troughs look like the good times.

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Mitch Berg

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24 responses to “This Is What Dismantlement Looks Like”

  1. Pete Strunk Avatar
    Pete Strunk

    438 cops, eh? Let’s unpack that. Minneapolis has a population of 437,069. Not all criminals who commit crimes in Minneapolis live there, but let’s be generous and say that only 1% of the population are criminals, defined as people who warrant the attention of cops.

    That’s 43,706 which gives you a crook/cop ratio of 100/1. Now of course not all criminals are committing crimes at the same time. They need time off to enjoy the fruit of their labor like anyone else so lets say 25% are on duty at any given time. 25/1 is great odds, if you’re Batman.

    As a benchmark to measure against, General Mills has 2,650 super woke employees in their Minneapolis HQ making sure your kids never run out of rainbow Cheerios.

    I don’t think anyone could say a victory dance was unwarranted for the city leaders who promised to get rid of the cops. November’s Trump victory should be real fun.

  2. jdm Avatar
    jdm

    That tweet was deleted because it was apparently misleading. There are follow-up tweets (scroll down to those from Sept 15)…

  3. jdm Avatar
    jdm

    … I assume that Chaloux was reporting from the meeting in which After Trying to Defund Police, Minneapolis City Council Asks: ‘Where Are the Police?’

  4. shakingmyhead Avatar
    shakingmyhead

    Pete – are you counting the “houseless” folks living in the parks? That probably pushes up the population by 5k. Also, I’d divide the number of police by 4 to determine the amount on patrol at any one time. With the city being about 58 square miles, that has one police officer covering .53 square miles. Use the 8/18 numbers, and you get .27 sq mi per cop. That’s assuming that they are all riding solo, which I don’t see too often anymore. And that they’ll respond with just one squad car (also unlikely).

    I wonder when a current or former Minneapolis PO is going to file a civil suit for a toxic work environment? Or, will it be a class action with all of them?

  5. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    Swiftee, 1% of the population is about 4000, not 40000. That said, the portion of the population as a whole that is “under supervision” is closer to 6%, so 10% as a portion of people with an “interesting criminal record” is probably reasonable. It’s also worth noting that with 438 officers–1:1000 residents– Murderapolis is rather underprovisioned compared to New York (1:150), Chicago (1:200), and LA (1:300). Even before the drops–1:500–they were low by big city standards.

    I don’t predict good things out of this.

  6. Joe Doakes Avatar
    Joe Doakes

    Only 438 officers in Patrol division which means the rest are Administration, Finance, Public Information, Human Resources, Crime Prevention, Community Response, Licensing (investigates applicants for various business licenses and permits issued by the City of Minneapolis, such as those governing the sale of alcoholic beverages, pawn shops and second-hand stores, charitable gaming activities), Crime Lab, Forgery/Fraud, Narcotics, Sex Crimes, Robbery, Homicide, Evidence, the jail . . . all important functions, to be sure, but not feet-on-the-street responding to calls from dispatch.

    438 divided into three shifts = 100 cops on the street at any one time. 2 to a squad means 50 cars on patrol at any one time. Is 50 cars enough for a city the size and complexity of Minneapolis? In a city of well-mannered citizens, that would be more than enough officers. In Minneapolis, in today’s political climate, they’re definitely under-manned.

  7. jdm Avatar
    jdm

    … oh, and because that last link is from Treacher, it’s NeverTrump-safe: there’s a couple mindless digs at Trump, so you don’t have to feel like it’s an echo chamber of pro-Trump nutjobs.

  8. John Kraephammer Avatar
    John Kraephammer

    Now, as a result of this years turmoil, heavily made up of people you don’t want wearing badges and carrying guns?

    As opposed to before, when high school dropout and votech food service student Derek Chauvin was getting hired on to the force? And Thomas Lane, who also didn’t graduate HS?

    I dont think it was ever not the case that policing drew misanthropic and unskilled personalities. Its probably true that its going to be harder now to recruit normies into the job.

  9. Pete Strunk Avatar
    Pete Strunk

    “As opposed to before, when high school dropout and votech food service student Derek Chauvin was getting hired on to the force? And Thomas Lane, who also didn’t graduate HS?”

    Right-O, because we all know public school and University grads are the gold standard for intelligence.

  10. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    So let me see if I get this right. heavily made up of people you don’t want wearing badges and carrying guns. But… but… I was told we need to upgrade and educate and soften and humanize the police force. Pshaw… why do we need those 438 officers on the street at all? Should they all not be social outreach special ed graduates who can sweet talk folks onto the path of rightousness? No… MPLS work is not done. Only when there is not a single cop remains in uniform, all precincts are shut down, and social outreach workers are manning the lemonade stands will the city become peaceful and serene.

  11. jdm Avatar
    jdm

    Actually, jpa, if you notice from the link I posted (there are other sources saying the same thing), the Real Problem is the constituents of the city council members. These ungrateful citizens are sabotaging the efforts to defund the police by complaining about crime. I mean, talk about back-stabbing their duly elected representatives!

  12. Joe Doakes Avatar
    Joe Doakes

    John, your comment reflects elitist distain for people working a difficult job under stressful conditions. Here are the current standards to become a police officer in Minnesota.

    https://dps.mn.gov/entity/post/becoming-a-peace-officer/Pages/standards-for-peace-officer-eligibility.aspx

  13. Night Writer Avatar
    Night Writer

    Budget cuts to the St. Paul PD resulted in closing the Law Enforcement Career Path Academy, which was aimed at recruiting new officers from low-income and diverse populations.

  14. John Kraephammer Avatar
    John Kraephammer

    Are you furnishing that POST standard as if you think its a very high, selective bar? It isn’t.

    I dont look at it that way, that you need to be a college grad…. Jerinimo Yanez was a college grad. Anyway, take it from me, I’m not an elitist. In life I continually extoll on the intellect of welders, electricians, fabricators, plumbers, machinists.

  15. Pete Strunk Avatar
    Pete Strunk

    John wants everyone to know he thinks highly of the little people.

  16. BradC Avatar
    BradC

    The KSTP reporter deleted that tweet and provided a clarification that the 535 is the actual sworn patrol force, NOT the entire department.

    https://twitter.com/EChalouxKSTP/status/1305904919900286983

  17. Joe Doakes Avatar
    Joe Doakes

    No, John, I posted it in response to your concern that police officers have always been “misanthropic and unskilled personalities.” Perhaps you failed to click through the link to the Rules, particularly:

    I. An evaluation, including an oral interview, shall be made by a licensed psychologist to determine that the applicant is free from any emotional or mental condition which might adversely affect the performance of peace officer duties.

  18. wendy Avatar
    wendy

    BradC is correct, but they aren’t saying what the full number is, so people don’t realize how few people are doing other necessary work, like investigations, because they have been moved to patrol. Most cities look at call response times and add cops as needed to have enough people to respond. Mpls and St Paul have instead chosen to have their cops respond to fewer and fewer types of calls.

  19. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    Mpls and St Paul have instead chosen to have their cops respond to fewer and fewer types of calls.

    wendy, MSP is on the right track – less police, less crime. No?

  20. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    This is what the future looks like. These are cops? Cops making those calls are reprobates just like their paymasters wasting taxpayer dollars. Low bar indeed.

    https://hotair.com/archives/jazz-shaw/2020/09/16/aurora-colorado-police-stand-twice-avoid-arresting-violent-felon-guess/

  21. In The Mailbox: 09.17.20 : The Other McCain

    […] Racism” Gets The Feds’ Attention, also, Seeing The Minneapolis Effect Shot In The Dark: This Is What Dismantlement Looks Like, also, DIY STUMP: Keeping Up With Meep – Public Pensions, MEPs, Public Finance, & More […]

  22. Joe Doakes Avatar
    Joe Doakes

    Five years ago, when Freddie Gray died in police custody, the Baltimore Police were told, “No more Black men die in police custody. Got it?”

    So the police quit arresting Black men. And no Black men died in police custody. Voila – problem solved.

    Of course, crime exploded to about six times as bad as it was, but those people dying weren’t in police custody, so it was all good.

  23. Greg Avatar
    Greg

    438 cops, eh? Let’s unpack that. Minneapolis has a population of 437,069. Not all criminals who commit crimes in Minneapolis live there, but let’s be generous and say that only 1% of the population are criminals, defined as people who warrant the attention of cops. Pete Strunk

    Obviously written by someone who knows absolutely nothing about what police actually do.

    Minneapolis receives approximately 300,000 calls for service (911) annually and from that (and street observations) produces 100,000 police incident reports. Many of those calls are handled by fire and ambulance services, but only some.

    So when grandpa has a heart attack, a cop rushes to the scene, no police incident is written.

    In a typical city:

    – Less than 5% of the Calls for Service (911) are for violent crimes.
    – 15% for traffic incidents.
    – 7% for domestic violence.
    – 30% for complaints like loud music, missing children and health and safety checks.

    But let’s talk about criminality by getting down to what constitutes a “criminal”. Is a criminal someone who does bad things all the time or is a criminal someone who under certain circumstances does nasty things?

    In other words, of those 437,069 residents of Minneapolis, how many exuberant bored youth are there? How many people who drink too much and drive? How many who mostly control their impulses? How many who would beat the sh*t out of the guy on the next bar stool if they didn’t fear the consequences?

    One purpose for police is to SUPPRESS dysfunctional behavior. Yes, one way to do that is to catch and charge offenders BUT another way is to raise the risk of being caught.

    So both the rioter with a Molotov cocktail or even the exuberant 16 year old in a muscle car who wants to drag race down a residential street SUPPRESSES the urge to step across the line of criminality if the risk of getting caught is palatable.

    Didn’t someone once write a book about this? Something about boys and flies and a pig’s head on a pike on a south sea island or was that book about a summer in Minneapolis?

  24. Greg Avatar
    Greg

    but let’s be generous and say that only 1% of the population are criminals – Pete Strunk

    According to the FBI, 73.5 million people in the United States have a criminal record.

    That is about 30% of the adult population.

    So does that mean a third of American adults are career criminals?

    Not at all, but it does suggest that society needs to keep a lid on.

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