My prediction – last week’s teapot-tempest about Trump talking with the Taiwanese president will redound to everyone’s benefit.
But rumors of apocalypse were overstated. Beijing’s response, besides requesting that the U.S. not let [Taiwan’s presidentTsai Ing-wen pass through the U.S. in January on her way to Guatemala, has been muted. That is to be expected. China has more to lose than to gain from an overreaction. For Donald Trump’s domestic critics, though, the opposite tends to be true. It is a telling comment on America’s political Left that they have reacted more strongly to Donald Trump’s potentially “undiplomatic” phone call to the head of a vibrant democracy than to the regime in Beijing trying to crush that democracy. Visitors to Taiwan will find a fairly elected president, a vigorous legislature, an open press, religious freedom, the fifth-largest economy in Asia, and a unique culture that straddles East and West. A little over 100 miles to the west, visitors will find a one-party dictatorship, directly descended from the terrors of Chairman Mao, that “disappears” political dissidents and harvests the organs of Falun Gong adherents.
Selling out democracies because of a precedent set by one of our least capable presidents is incredibly stupid policy.
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I have a friend living in Hsinchu, Taiwan. Ed settled in Taiwan because he found that a Mandarin speaking, cowboy boot wearing, 6’2″ white guy earning a generous salary could wade through a veritable ocean of attractive young women like McAurthur returning to the Philippines (but I digress).
I converse with Ed quite often, and he has always likened the ChiCom military to Wile E. Coyote and his Acme arsenal. Lately though, he’s been getting a little worried. Ed and I worked together, back in the early 90’s, on a Motorola Semi-conductor wafer fab in the PRC. In order to build that plant, and to gain lucrative contracts, Motorola agreed to work with a Chinese partner, namely, the PRC itself. To protect it’s secrets, Motorola built an 8 micron facility that employed obsolete technology…well, it wasn’t obsolete the Chinese.
China has parlayed years of selective theft from a willing American technology sector into a formidable economy, and military. While we certainly still enjoy a wide technological advantage, the Chinese have all the advantages of the former Soviet Union, namely an inexhaustible supply of cannon fodder, with the advantage of being able to turn it’s largely untapped supply of natural resources into an inexhaustible supply of credible, if not overly impressive, military hardware.
Obama tried to impress the Chinese with his mad bowing and scraping skillz, and they returned the favor by expanding their influence and command in the South China Sea by building military bases on islands they also built, and by harassing our military assets in the air on and the sea.
Obama has responded with a stern “Heeey, you guys!”
Trump sent them an autographed picture of his ass with a Taiwan postmark. Let’s see if they return the gesture with more harassment of our naval assets, or with more favorable trade terms.
It is impossible to overstate how sensitive the Chinese government and businesses are about Taiwan.
Some friends of mine from Raytheon travel to Beijing a number of years ago to market turbines. One of the team members got a clever idea to put a map of China on the cover of the briefing books, with Taiwan on the map. When they distribute the briefing books, the Chinese participants stop talking and put their heads down. Meeting over.
One of the Americans looks at the map and thinks that Taiwan does not look quite right. He says it’s not in the right position. They do the same things with Briefing Books #2 and #3. Same response each time. The Chinese participants Again, literally, go quiet and put their heads down.
The Americans eventually get the picture, and call off the marketing tour as a glorious failure. The policy at Raytheon ever since on marketing in China has included a simple rule: “No maps!”
eTASS suggests the diplomacy should be of the “do not offend” kind. Yet again his grasp of historical facts, such as “Peace Through Strength” diplomacy that won the Cold War is but a footnote, if it even happened.
Who knows, this might strengthen the US position vis a vis China. The only problem is the no one knows what position Trump is even thinking about.
Trump seems to believe that as he prepares for negotiations, again we don’t know on what, that it’s a classic move to establish a position of power. But power is dependent on many factors and in international affairs, particularly with China, the US has an ongoing relationship beyond whatever it is that Trump is thinking about negotiating on.
Is this about trade deals? If so, which ones, there’re over a dozen. Is this about currency? The Yuen is already pegged to the dollar and fluctuates between an agreed range. Is this about mineral exploration in the South China Sea? The Philippines and China have already agreed to bilateral negotiations over those rights.
Or, is this simply the president elect posturing for his base with no negotiations over anything on the horizon? If this is the case Trump must quickly learn the nuanced language of international affairs. Countries are used to sending signals to one another through public statements, but only after carefully agreed upon protocols are in place. Conducting international affairs through midnight Tweets even before you take office doesn’t seem to be one of those protocols. It appears that no damage has been done, at least not yet, but let’s hope Trumps idea of governing is less chaotic than his idea of a campaign.
“Internationalism is last refuge of a scoundrel.”
Yeah, I coined that.
And by that, I mean that excessive concern for internationalism may disguise undemocratic wickedness. The value of the Chinese Yuan is set by the Peoples Bank of China to whatever they think is best for the Chinese economy.
no one knows what position Trump is even thinking about.
I guess eTASS did not get the memo yet from his kommisar what to say about sTrumpet’s pick for a ambassador to China.
Classic: Branstad is the good cop and Trump is the bad one.
I’m glad is continuing to let the world know the past eight years of America apologizing for everything is over. Remember when teh crazy Reagan took office and the left predicted nuclear holocaust and other nonsense? Trump is no Reagan but he is making his mark in many good ways.