Taken for Granite

The patient may be still wiggling on the table, but it’s never too early for a “pre-mortem” on the GOP New Hampshire primary.  [UPDATED BELOW]

  • Margin Call:  With even the Suffolk daily tracking poll showing Romney’s numbers rebounding despite a week of attacks, the question isn’t whether Romney will win but by how much.  Perhaps the only margin worth watching is to see where Gov. Jon Huntsman finishes.  Short of a close second, it’s hard to see how Huntsman justifies going forward unless he believes Florida can be his bulwark.
  • Rick-Rolled:  Rick Santorum is desperately trying to become 2012’s Mike Huckabee, right down to repeating the 2008 candidates’ mistakes.  Following his Iowa victory four years ago, Huckabee chose to contest New Hampshire and Michigan instead of turning to South Carolina and arguably friendly political territory.  Huckabee seemed temporarily vindicated by rising up from single digits to finish in third, winning a handful of delegates and lingering momentum.  Instead, the time and treasure spent elsewhere helped cost him South Carolina and the mantle as the sole “anti-McCain.”  Santorum might finish fourth or fifth tonight – and probably would have even if he hadn’t campaigned in the Granite State for the past week.
  • Bain & Conservatism’s Dark Night: No, we’re not talking about the next Batman film, but some of the comments from the field this week over Romney and his history with Bain Capital do seem Two-Faced.  Romney’s “I love being able to fire people” is likely to end up in a general election ad should he win the nomination, but did the rest of the GOP field need to beat the Democrats to the punch?  Romney’s comment certainly shows a tin-ear, even if he clarified his stance within the next few sentences.  Yet nearly every Republican candidate has decided not only to take a swing at Romney on the issue but poke capitalism as well.  A pro-Gingrich Super PAC is planning a $3 million-plus ad campaign in South Carolina lambasting Romney’s Bain record as well.  As NRO’s Jim Geraghty muses, “the demonization of the free market is complete.”
  • “Anti” Gravity:  While the battle to become the “anti-Romney” seemed more like a poor man’s episode of “Survivor” earlier in the campaign as candidate after candidate was eliminated from the race, the remaining Anybody But Romneys now look to be in an electoral game of chicken.  Paul, Gingrich, Santorum, Perry and Huntsman have all taken their measure of the field and (fairly correctly) determined that none of the remaining candidates have the organization, financing, or momentum to displace the front-runner.  But the hour for someone to coalesce the anti-Romney vote is growing late and despite all the talk of the gravity of nominating Romney, none of the pretenders has yet signaled a willingness to move their support to another.  Thus the rest of the field waits for someone else to drop out in increasingly vain hopes that the last man standing can inherit the cumulative frustrations of the base.
  • Days & Weaks Ahead:  Playing upon the last note, it’s hard to see where the anti-Romney forces can possibly stage a comeback given the upcoming primary calendar.  Romney holds solid polling leads in South Carolina and Florida and looks likely to enter February having won every caucus/primary.  But Feb 7th could be the date that sees Romney lose – twice.  Colorado and Minnesota hold their caucuses that night and if the field has narrowed down to one or two major competitors, the evening could contain the first electoral chink in Romney’s armor.  The only problem with that theory?  Neither state is actually pledging delegates to the convention – both votes are beauty contests and will likely be spun as such by Romney should he lose.
UPDATE:  If you prefer your summaries brief, NRO’s John Hood says it best with tonight’s result showcasing “the limits of election-night spin.”
Is a Romney nomination a foregone conclusion?  No, but let’s just say the fat lady is clearing her throat.  Romney not only became the first Republican since Gerald Ford to win both Iowa and New Hampshire in a contested primary (and the first non-incumbent), but none of his opponents blinked at finishing far behind him.  With a mixture of rumors and facts surrounding various candidate Super PACs and campaigns promising to spend the house to block Romney, expect South Carolina to be a primary Verdun – a financial meat-grinder intended to at last lessen the field.
Perhaps the biggest loser of the evening?  Rick Santorum, who now looks to not even get 10% – the minimal threshold necessary to earn a delegate.  Meanwhile Perry is blasting the South Carolina airwaves with hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of “values” themed TV ads while trying to do retail politics at a Run Lola Run pace.

10 thoughts on “Taken for Granite

  1. What does it say about Time magazine or our current political culture that its coverage of the primary election is featured under its “Entertainment” section?

  2. What does it say about Time magazine or our current political culture that its coverage of the primary election is featured under its “Entertainment” section?

    Thorley,

    It says the old saw is true — politics is show business for ugly people. Not that any of this has been particularly entertaining.

    Oh, and good post, FR!

  3. But the hour for someone to coalesce the anti-Romney vote is growing late and despite all the talk of the gravity of nominating Romney, none of the pretenders has yet signaled a willingness to move their support to another. Thus the rest of the field waits for someone else to drop out in increasingly vain hopes that the last man standing can inherit the cumulative frustrations of the base.

    Someone (probably a military guy) once said that “hope isn’t a plan.” I submit to you that neither is frustration a foundation for success. Every candidate has their pluses and minuses (which is which depends on your perspective) and the reason Romney is the frontrunner and the “consensus” candidate is that pluralities of likely Republican voters have concluded that relative to the other candidates, his pluses outweigh his minuses by the most. You may disagree with their assessment or even disparage the individuals making it as being part of the “establishment” but there it is.

    Taking an “anti-frontrunner” approach has never in my memory led to successfully finding a better candidate who goes on to win the general election. It may enable them to better win the general election as they look more centrist relative to their critics. Or if the accusations do enough damage, it may hobble them enough in the general election so that they go on to lose. What is unlikely to do is to convince them to change their mind on any of the issues.

  4. Thorley and Mr. D,

    There is another old saying, by his Reaganist no less, that probably answers Thorley’s original question:

    It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.

  5. I think the established Republican fund-raising money is going to dry up pretty quickly for Perry, Santorum, Gingrich and Huntsman pretty quickly, and the “Establishment” that isn’t already backing Romney will flow that way, knee-capping the other candidates if they don’t exit on their own. The exception is Paul, who doesn’t appear to get his money from those sources and looks to be prepared to stay in this thing, perhaps as far as the convention. If he continues to draw from support from the young, the disaffected (some of whom are Democrats) and the independents he could leverage himself into being enough of a factor to make Romney stay to the right. Interesting that Paul blasted the anti-Romney attacks by the other Republican candidates today.

    Gingrich might feel he has the personality and support to stay in for a while longer, but nobody has ever said that he’s not a pragmatist.

  6. “I like being able to fire people who provide services to me” is a LOT different than “I like being able to fire people” still the person who put that in his speech should be fired. Mitch come on, context is something you pride yourself in. Don’t fall into the MSM trap. Look at the whole clip from ThinkProgress (sound is a little low but he’s talking about healthcare/health insurance).
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8Jhm5_0KKY

  7. Ben,

    Thanks for the comment. As for Romney’s “firing” line, it’s why I said “Romney’s comment certainly shows a tin-ear, even if he clarified his stance within the next few sentences”. Given the SITD audience, I didn’t think I had to clarify that Romney clarified his remark to pertain to firing those who provide substandard services to him. But I would also agree that if someone else fed him the line, he/she ought to be at least “demoted by promotion” as the wonks used to say.

  8. Romney versus Obama would be like Nelson Rockafeller versus Hubert Humphrey – there is no serious choice and therefore no reasonable prospect that either can save the country.

    Let Obama win so he gets the blame for Great Depression 2.0. Maybe that will give Republicans a chance in 2106.

  9. Let Obama win so he gets the blame for Great Depression 2.0. Maybe that will give Republicans a chance in 2106.
    I’m not sure if you meant to write “2016” but by 2016 the economy is likely to have recovered, about 17 million people who previously had health insurance through their employers will be dependent on the subsidies that kick in in 2013 for their health care, and Medicare and Social Security will be in much direr straits which will make it harder for any candidate to run on a platform of reforming them. Not exactly a political environment that favors Republicans IMO.

  10. Pingback: Carolina On My Mind | Shot in the Dark

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