The patient may be still wiggling on the table, but it’s never too early for a “pre-mortem” on the GOP New Hampshire primary. [UPDATED BELOW]
- Margin Call: With even the Suffolk daily tracking poll showing Romney’s numbers rebounding despite a week of attacks, the question isn’t whether Romney will win but by how much. Perhaps the only margin worth watching is to see where Gov. Jon Huntsman finishes. Short of a close second, it’s hard to see how Huntsman justifies going forward unless he believes Florida can be his bulwark.
- Rick-Rolled: Rick Santorum is desperately trying to become 2012’s Mike Huckabee, right down to repeating the 2008 candidates’ mistakes. Following his Iowa victory four years ago, Huckabee chose to contest New Hampshire and Michigan instead of turning to South Carolina and arguably friendly political territory. Huckabee seemed temporarily vindicated by rising up from single digits to finish in third, winning a handful of delegates and lingering momentum. Instead, the time and treasure spent elsewhere helped cost him South Carolina and the mantle as the sole “anti-McCain.” Santorum might finish fourth or fifth tonight – and probably would have even if he hadn’t campaigned in the Granite State for the past week.
- Bain & Conservatism’s Dark Night: No, we’re not talking about the next Batman film, but some of the comments from the field this week over Romney and his history with Bain Capital do seem Two-Faced. Romney’s “I love being able to fire people” is likely to end up in a general election ad should he win the nomination, but did the rest of the GOP field need to beat the Democrats to the punch? Romney’s comment certainly shows a tin-ear, even if he clarified his stance within the next few sentences. Yet nearly every Republican candidate has decided not only to take a swing at Romney on the issue but poke capitalism as well. A pro-Gingrich Super PAC is planning a $3 million-plus ad campaign in South Carolina lambasting Romney’s Bain record as well. As NRO’s Jim Geraghty muses, “the demonization of the free market is complete.”
- “Anti” Gravity: While the battle to become the “anti-Romney” seemed more like a poor man’s episode of “Survivor” earlier in the campaign as candidate after candidate was eliminated from the race, the remaining Anybody But Romneys now look to be in an electoral game of chicken. Paul, Gingrich, Santorum, Perry and Huntsman have all taken their measure of the field and (fairly correctly) determined that none of the remaining candidates have the organization, financing, or momentum to displace the front-runner. But the hour for someone to coalesce the anti-Romney vote is growing late and despite all the talk of the gravity of nominating Romney, none of the pretenders has yet signaled a willingness to move their support to another. Thus the rest of the field waits for someone else to drop out in increasingly vain hopes that the last man standing can inherit the cumulative frustrations of the base.
- Days & Weaks Ahead: Playing upon the last note, it’s hard to see where the anti-Romney forces can possibly stage a comeback given the upcoming primary calendar. Romney holds solid polling leads in South Carolina and Florida and looks likely to enter February having won every caucus/primary. But Feb 7th could be the date that sees Romney lose – twice. Colorado and Minnesota hold their caucuses that night and if the field has narrowed down to one or two major competitors, the evening could contain the first electoral chink in Romney’s armor. The only problem with that theory? Neither state is actually pledging delegates to the convention – both votes are beauty contests and will likely be spun as such by Romney should he lose.
UPDATE: If you prefer your summaries brief, NRO’s John Hood says it best with tonight’s result showcasing “the limits of election-night spin.”
Is a Romney nomination a foregone conclusion? No, but let’s just say the fat lady is clearing her throat. Romney not only became the first Republican since Gerald Ford to win both Iowa and New Hampshire in a contested primary (and the first non-incumbent), but none of his opponents blinked at finishing far behind him. With a mixture of rumors and facts surrounding various candidate Super PACs and campaigns promising to spend the house to block Romney, expect South Carolina to be a primary Verdun – a financial meat-grinder intended to at last lessen the field.
Perhaps the biggest loser of the evening? Rick Santorum, who now looks to not even get 10% – the minimal threshold necessary to earn a delegate. Meanwhile Perry is blasting the South Carolina airwaves with hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of “values” themed TV ads while trying to do retail politics at a Run Lola Run pace.
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