Shot in the Dark

As Predicted

Last December 8, when the DFL was crowing about having a “$17.6 Billion Surplus”, I noted tha the so-called “surplus” was nothing but bIllions of dollars in federal Covid stimulus dollars, routine Minnesota DFL overtaxation (plumped up by receipts driven up by inflation in the cost of the goods being taxed, and that all of that that taxation and inflation was going on over an epipandemic surge in stimulus-swollen consumer spending that would end with the subsidies.

And I predicted:

  • The DFL will turn that “$27.6 Billion in Surplus” into permanent spending
  • The economy will slow into recession (as even the DFL’s cheerleaders in their bespoke press are starting to observe).
  • Without the Covid stimuli, and with the economy contracting, tax receipts will crash again. “Unexpectedly”
  • The state will have a multibillion dollar deficit by 2026, probably 2024.

I think it’s fair to say the first bullet is in the 10 ring:

“Seemingly”.

Of course, some are taking this as a cue to celebrate:

No word from Rep. Stevenson if making the trains run on time is next.

My ultimate prediction – billions in deficits – is now inevitable.

No, it’s not just me. Walter Hudson:

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52 responses to “As Predicted”

  1. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    Why take all the risks of starting your own business when you can join a corporation with a banking license? Salary protection when times are bad. A nice big fat share of the profits in bonuses and stock options when times are good.

    What’s not to like? Beats capitalism hands down.

  2. jdm Avatar
    jdm

    Little bit lost here. What is this about the making the trains run on time? That train metaphor was applied to Mussolini’s fascist regime. Are you equating the current DFL regime as fascist? They seem more like socialists to me.

    Regardless, I hope all those DFL voters enjoy what they voted for.

  3. John "Bigman" Jones Avatar
    John “Bigman” Jones

    e-blather from March 22 at 11:40:

    “Here in the US, the economy is still booming. Much higher rates needed to slow this juggernaut.”

    Squandering the “surplus” so we can raise taxes next year is certainly one way to suck money out of the economy.

  4. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    Just to be clear, when a company builds warehouse, it’s investing. When a person upgrades the kitchen in their home, it’s investing. When our government upgrades our infrastructure and reduces the cost of insulin to $35 a dose, it is investing. We are not “spending” our tax revenue. We are making investments in ourselves and our State.

    Modern free-market proponents get to keep the profits in a low tax environment (carried interest vs income tax?) but have their losses covered by the state when they emerge? These are the same type of people pontificating that capitalism is no longer respected. Really??

  5. Pig Bodine Avatar
    Pig Bodine

    Emery

    Among so many other things, world renown economist, military strategist, scientific researcher, you present yourself as an expert on the ethics of abortion so it should not be difficult for you to answer this question…
    At what point in your mother’s pregnancy with you would it have become unacceptable for her to abort you?

    As a bonus question where can I find the text in the Constitution that supports this claim you made:
    “The Constitution before amendment said Clarence Thomas should be counted as 3/5ths of a person.”

  6. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    Pig — we haven’t heard anything about the Bodine/MBerg Gala Fundraiser for adoption services & crisis pregnancy. Still in the infancy stages Pig?

  7. Pig Bodine Avatar
    Pig Bodine

    Emery
    It’ll only take a minute…
    Among so many stellar accomplishments you boast of, you present yourself as an expert on the ethics of abortion so it should not be difficult for you to answer this question…
    At what point in your mother’s pregnancy with you would it have become unacceptable for her to abort you?

    As a bonus question where can I find the text in the Constitution that supports this claim you made:
    “The Constitution before amendment said Clarence Thomas should be counted as 3/5ths of a person.”

  8. SmithStCrx Avatar
    SmithStCrx

    I noticed that the partisan labels were not included with “Legislative Leaders.”

  9. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    “Ten days before Signature Bank collapsed, the House Republican overseeing an inquiry into the bank’s failure was inside its boardroom on New York’s Fifth Avenue. Patrick McHenry was there to raise thousands of dollars from bank executives.”
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-20/signature-threw-a-fundraiser-for-mchenry-just-before-it-crumbled

    Barney Franks on both sides of the aisles….

  10. MacArthur Wheeler Avatar
    MacArthur Wheeler

    Emery

    Your ability to cut and paste is extraordinary, so why don’t you take a moment from your busy schedule…

    Among so many other things you present yourself as an expert on the ethics of abortion so it should not be difficult for you to answer this question…
    At what point in your mother’s pregnancy with you would it have become unacceptable for her to abort you?

    As a bonus question where can I find the text in the Constitution that supports this claim you made:
    “The Constitution before amendment said Clarence Thomas should be counted as 3/5ths of a person.”

  11. MacArthur Wheeler Avatar
    MacArthur Wheeler

    Emery
    You see, anyone can cut and paste – I lifted the above from Pig

  12. Pig Bodine Avatar
    Pig Bodine

    Mac
    Emery seems to like you better than me, maybe he’ll answer the question for you.

  13. bosshoss429 Avatar
    bosshoss429

    Yea, Bot Boy? You have proven consistently that in addition to being a left wing ChiCom talking head, you are also economically illiterate, just like the vermin you support. Like you, none of those rat bastard DemoCommies, have ever signed both sides of a check, yet they think they can spend OUR money better than we can. They also don’t understand that they can’t make annual long term “investments” with short term cash, i.e. WuFlu cash.

  14. MacArthur Wheeler Avatar
    MacArthur Wheeler

    Say, does all this Investment mean that the potholes will finally disappear from the state highways?

  15. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    @ MW — we haven’t heard anything about the MacArthur Wheeler/ Bodine/MBerg Gala Fundraiser for adoption services & crisis pregnancy. Still in the infancy stages Pig/Mac?

  16. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    I hear that potholes are less prevalent in southern climates ☀️🌵🏜️

  17. Pig Bodine Avatar
    Pig Bodine

    Emery
    that is such thin gruel, you are after all a well practiced thief of other people’s thoughts, surely you can find something that answers the question…
    Among so many other things you present yourself as an expert on the ethics of abortion so it should not be difficult for you to answer this question…
    At what point in your mother’s pregnancy with you would it have become unacceptable for her to abort you?

    As a bonus question where can I find the text in the Constitution that supports this claim you made:
    “The Constitution before amendment said Clarence Thomas should be counted as 3/5ths of a person.”

  18. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    💰💰💰= for adoption and crisis pregnancy

    Walk the walk my friend

  19. AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis Avatar
    AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis

    Why the Hell is Emery blathering on about economics? He knows literally nothing about economics. And now we are getting even more blather about some kind of imaginary charity he wants people to contribute to?
    His brain is fried. Must have started up on the crack again.

  20. Vlad the Impaler Avatar
    Vlad the Impaler

    I applaud your state leadership’s courage, and only point out that this is the time to also announce tax increases, to take any hollow joy conservative Patriots™ might enjoy from saying “I told you so” next year.

    Personally, I’m sick of hearing the incessant whining, and tired of my shoes getting soggy from all the tears. Nobody is forcing you to stay. If you choose to stay remember it’s not your money, so stop acting like it is. The reprobates will take as much as they and, and spend it however they want, and no, it’s not going to benefit you at all. Just pay up and shut up.

    ty

  21. AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis Avatar
    AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis

    The DFL is going full speed ahead on this “book banning” bullshit, aren’t they?
    If I was a conservative kid in a MPLS school, I would start stocking the shelves with copies of The Turner Diaries and some David Duke books.
    Virtually everyone is in favor of “banning” books and periodicals from public schools and public libraries. That’s why, if you doing serious research, you use a university library system. Those libraries are meant for research, not feel goodism.
    Juvie fiction was one of the early genre’s taken over by the woke. Winning a juvie fiction award means a lot of public library and school library sales, so the whole juvie fiction is a giant logrolling system.

  22. AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis Avatar
    AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis

    Minnesota already has a problem with wealthier people and retirees moving out of state. The demographics are quite alarming.
    Especially after this legislative session, Minnesota has a distinct Hunger Games vibe, with the metro area as Capital City.

  23. Mr. D Avatar
    Mr. D

    The troll is threadjacking up a storm on this thread. I strongly suggest other commenters ignore it. Fight the urge to engage.

  24. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    If someone doesn’t want to read something, then they can choose not to read it. There are plenty of books I don’t want to read and I simply do not read them. I make that choice for myself and leave the choice of those books for others to themselves. I don’t push my views on these groups. I wish they would not impose their views on others. It’s bad enough in the schools. When we will really have to worry is when they start coming after public libraries.

  25. Night Writer Avatar
    Night Writer

    Mr. D – it’s really easy to do! That little scroll wheel on my mouse is on of the greatest inventions in the last 40 years, and I zoom right by! This also means that I can fight the urge to throw up a little in my mouth.

  26. John "Bigman" Jones Avatar
    John “Bigman” Jones

    pay raises for public employees = investment = good use of public money

    taxpayer funded abortion = investment = good use of public money

    adoption = not investment = bad use of public money, hold bake sale instead

    This is the world according the Liberals like emery

  27. AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis Avatar
    AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis

    Minnesota loses 19,400 residents to other states in 2022 – pace of exit is quickening https://www.americanexperiment.org/minnesota-loses-19400-residents-to-other-states-in-2022-pace-of-exit-is-quickening/
    The associated date is interesting. This is all internal migration, not furriners.
    Top 5 gainer states?
    Florida, Texas, North Caroline, South Carolina, Tennessee.
    Top 5 loser states?
    California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts.
    Definite pattern, and its not weather related. Low or high local taxes are the common element.

  28. AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis Avatar
    AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis

    Depopulation is a concern worldwide. One of the things that makes “sustainability” a joke is that “sustainability” calculations don’t take into account the changing shape of the population pyramid — not yet. You can’t be sustainable unless you can the control the reproduction rate of your citizens, and this puts the state literally into the bedrooms of citizens. Different nations with different population pyramid shapes may either require contraception or ban contraception, all in the name of “sustainability.”

  29. AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis Avatar
    AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis

    The reason why you don’t use a public library if you are doing serious research is because public libraries specialize in popular publications. They are meant to serve the general public, not scholars. They don’t subscribe to anything but the largest circulation academic publications because they are directly supported by the tax payers & the tax payers would rather have five circulating copies of the latest Stephen King horror novel than access to The Canadian Journal of Paraphysical Research.

  30. Emery Avatar
    Emery

    Hey has Trump been indicted yet? I can’t find the story anywhere on cable news. Amazing how quickly “lock her up” turned into “we can’t imprison political figures”.

    Because of Trump’s long streak of non-accountability, I know people want him prosecuted on literally anything and even though illegal, it’s going to seem like a nothing burger. It’s just messy sex and will likely illicit him more sympathy for his victimhood.

    The problem here is Bragg. He balked at the tax evasion issue which I believe is far more consequential. He has opted to go for the least of Trump’s crimes and will probably go for something like probation.

  31. MacArthur Wheeler Avatar
    MacArthur Wheeler

    Emery

    the difference between illicit and elicit is the difference between an ignorant mountebank troll (you) and an educated person

    What exactly are your credentials?

  32. jimf Avatar
    jimf

    From the Babylon Bee: “Democrats vow to arrest as many political opponents as it takes to defeat fascism”.

  33. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    jdm, you sure that was not an NYT or WaPo headline? Sure sounds like something they would write. If it was the Bee, they are just parroting MSM now – there is no way to parody the reality that had jumped the shark.

  34. Vlad the Impaler Avatar
    Vlad the Impaler

    rAT chirped: “There are plenty of books I don’t want to read and I simply do not read them.”

    He never found a porn book he didn’t like for his ER nurse daughter at bed time, though.

    “I make that choice for myself and leave the choice of those books for others to themselves”

    So, you’re saying the ER NuRSe chose “Vaseline time for Timmy”?

  35. Vlad the Impaler Avatar
    Vlad the Impaler

    This post is just stupid. The degenerates had $17 billion to spare. They are in complete control of your shithole state.

    WTF did you think they were gonna do with it?

    Stop whining. This is the permanent state of your state. Conservative Patriots™️ will never be in control of your government again, and the degenerates are just getting warmed up.

    If you don’t like that; move. If you don’t want to move, just pay up, suckers, and stfu.

  36. Mr. D Avatar
    Mr. D

    This post is just stupid. The degenerates had $17 billion to spare. They are in complete control of your shithole state.

    WTF did you think they were gonna do with it?

    Stop whining. This is the permanent state of your state. Conservative Patriots™️ will never be in control of your government again, and the degenerates are just getting warmed up.

    Yep. The only vote we have is with our feet.

  37. In The Mailbox: 03.22.23 : The Other McCain

    […] Shark Tank: Florida AG Moody Busts $400 Million Medicaid Fraud Case  Shot In The Dark: As Predicted, also, When Reality Is Absurd Parody Is Pointless The Political Hat: Ohio vs. Diversity Statements […]

  38. AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis Avatar
    AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis

    Latest woke trickery:
    FL passes law against pro-racism, pro-homo materials in classrooms. Woke teachers and librarians sweep their shelves of all books, including, of course, those famous bits of Americana that people love to think of people reading. Woke teacher then goes to news media “see what DeSantis has banned!”
    And the newsdrone never asks “who actually made the decision to remove xxx from the library shelf?” because the answer would be “why that very teacher standing in front of you claiming that DeSantis banned the book.”

  39. Vlad the Impaler Avatar
    Vlad the Impaler

    AIUMMP, I have the same message for parents. The public schools are completely infested with degenerate leftists that will treat your kids like lab rats. They will permanently damage your kids, they will drug your kids, they will groom them for the sexual pleasure of pedophiles.

    You will never change that. If you don’t want that to happen, gather with other sane parents, hire a wholesome teacher and home school your kids, or move to a state that does not allow degenerates free run of the schools.

  40. bosshoss429 Avatar
    bosshoss429

    Since 2020, Cali has had the largest net losses in residents in history. In fact, they have lost so many people that they will likely lose at least one House seat and possibly two. It’s gotten so bad for U-Haul, that if you are dumb enough to be moving TO the land of fruits and nuts, they will practically pay you to rent from them.

  41. AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis Avatar
    AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis

    Ixnay the ax cuts tay.
    The MN GOP knew that they were never going to get a tax cut or a rebate out of a unified DFL government. It would be money left on the table to the DFL since virtually all MN state money goes to DFL controlled bureaucracies and constituents, even when the GOP is in charge.
    What MN GOP should have done is insist that the surplus be given to the Ukrainians. All of it, every penny. Maybe make up one of those giant sized checks made out to Zelinskyy.
    And make it very clear that is a contribution of $3,000 from every Minnesota resident.

  42. Vlad the Impaler Avatar
    Vlad the Impaler

    AIUMMP, you’ve just brought Bikebubble to tears. Bless you lad…bless you.

    Bikebubble also jumped for joy when Pedo Joe’s handlers and the conservative Patriot™️ party agreed to send the Ukrainian Crips some gently used M1 tanks…next year.

    Trouble is, we won’t have any ammo left for them, and Zelensky will be running real short of cannon fodder by then, but they still look very menacing.

    Maybe Zelensky can dance on one in his spike heel boots and drag S&M costume! Scary! 👻

    Lmao.

  43. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    Anybody got a listing of who’s going to get what with the new budget? It strikes me that some spending actually could be seen as investment, and a lot of other spending as waste, but you really need to go line by line.

    But that said, 8-10% increase per year? Boy, I wish I was getting that. It’ll be hard to roll back.

  44. Vlad the Impaler Avatar
    Vlad the Impaler

    It strikes me that some spending actually could be seen as investment

    See everyone?

    Bikebubble has learned to bend over and enjoy it.

  45. Vlad the Impaler Avatar
    Vlad the Impaler

    Anybody got a listing of who’s going to get what with the new budget?

    LMMFAO!

    This stupid MFer hasn’t taken his head out his ass long enough to take a breath for the last 10 years!!! 🤤🤣😂

  46. bosshoss429 Avatar
    bosshoss429

    Vlad.
    Don’t worry lad! The Brits are planning on donating some depleted uranium rounds to Zelinsky’s graft machine.

  47. AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis Avatar
    AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis

    Most of the things people consider “investments” by state government are covered by special use taxes because the people who use the service or facility gain an outsized advantage from it. So highways & roads are paid for by gas taxes & vehicle registration, etc. “Free state college for all” sounds like it might be a good investment, but when you look at the details it falls apart. Some people, for a variety of reasons, can’t even afford free college (going to college takes time that might be spent earning wages). And there is nothing to stop people from taking their MN paid for education to another state, possible a state where the same degree cost tens of thousands of dollars, allowing the MN graduate to undercut the locals wages in his/her new state.

  48. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    UMMP; true, and that’s why we need the itemization. I can see some things as reducing future expenditures (say making roads to last for ten years more and thus pushing out future repairs), and a lot of things as money down the toilet.

    Give us a list, Mr. Walz. This simply doesn’t seem to be what I’m hearing from Dave Ramsey, to put it mildly.

  49. Vlad the Impaler Avatar
    Vlad the Impaler

    Listen up you reprobates; Bikebubble is down with more spending, be he wants to see receipts this time, damn it!!

    🤣🤣🤣😂😂😂🥸

  50. AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis Avatar
    AI Ultra Maga Mammuthus Primigenesis

    BB, don’t give these people the benefit of a doubt. It is not possible to be cynical enough when examining the actions of politicians and bureaucrats. Any trust that is granted to them will be abused and betrayed.
    Since we have to spend some public money on common goods, the only solution to the principal agent problem is constant suspicion and criticism.
    It is common for people who are working class to assume that at some level the bosses are doing their best to do their jobs — like you are.
    Ain’t true. People like Walz & Flanagan — or Trump & Cruz — have so little in common with you that you can hardly imagine it. They will never lack for anything the rest of their lives. They and their kin will never worry about paying rent. Their kids and grand kids are guaranteed “seats at the table” of the upper class, forever.

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