Draw

The GOP primary becomes a Möbius strip.

Give conventional wisdom its due – sometimes it’s right.  The political meme entering tonight cast the GOP contest with Mitt Romney as the tenuous front-runner, Rick Santorum as the undisciplined and underfunded challenger, Newt Gingrich as the long-shot and Ron Paul as the wacky neighbor next door.  10 states and 400+ delegates later?

It’s exactly the same.

So what can we take away as Super Tuesday becomes Groggy Wednesday Morning?

• The Song Remains the Same:  Nothing seemingly can break the GOP deadlock as Romney remains a front-runner who has to outspend his competition 6-to-1 in order to eek out a victory and loses when “only” outspending his rivals by smaller margins.  Not that Santorum or Gingrich ought to be bragging.  The Icarus primary of the Not-Romneys has seen both candidate’s wings melt under the media spotlight and while Santorum looks to have at least 3 wins and a “draw” in his Ohio loss, he did nothing on Tuesday to claim the mantle of front-runner.  Ohio’s margin might make it harder for Romney to raise money, but his purse strings stretch far further than Santorum or Gingrich despite an uptick post Feb 7th.
• Hare Apparent:  Newt Gingrich might consider himself the “tortoise” of the primary race, but as we pass the 550 mark in delegates, all the candidates need to start running like bunnies.  Say what you will of Romney’s inability to close out the nomination, his delegate accumulation has been far more tortoise-like, making it almost statistically impossible for Santorum to win enough delegates (to say nothing of Newt).  And what exactly is going to change that?
• Southbound & Down:  The primary calender might – might – change things.  From March 10th to the 17th, the race goes into territory that should be less friendly to Romney.  Kansas, Alabama, Mississippi and Missouri all vote in that 7 day timespan and represent perhaps Rick Santorum’s last best gasp to alter the trajectory of the campaign.  The problem is that Gingrich remains in the race and is pursuing a southern strategy while Romney is carpetbombing airwaves and mailboxes.  With a still-divided field, Romney doesn’t need to win most of these states.  Instead, he can focus his resources on one or two and hope that Hawaii, voting during this period as well, will keep him racking up just enough delegates and primary wins to look the part of a front-runner.  That element of the contest looks the most likely.  Why?
• Dear God, Let It End:  The media & the punditry have become bored.  And frankly, more than a few voters too.  After 20 debates (with one more, in theory, on March 19th) and countless hours of navel-gazing political spin, there simply isn’t much left to say about any of the remaining candidates.  Barring a completely undiscovered past comment or present gaffe, there isn’t anything likely to arise to change most voters impressions of the field.  And if nothing changes, Mitt Romney becomes the GOP nominee probably around April 24th as 231 delegates will be up for grabs in winner-take-all East coast states.  Not even Gingrich throwing his pledged delegates behind Santorum now necessarily stops that.  So, at least in the minds of the punditry, why wait another month-and-a-half to declare a winner?
• The Animatronics Need Further Testing:  Romney’s robotic Boston speech tonight represented the former Governor at his awkward, halting worst.  Romney stays on message, like a T-1000 with a target in its sights, but still hasn’t had that “I now know why humans cry” moment in relating to the electorate.  Romney will never be able to fully relate to average voters, but then again his general election opponent isn’t exactly a beer and waffles man himself (despite attempts at photo ops to the contrary).  Romney can’t afford to have many more George Bush Sr. “price of milk” moments (although that moment was strongly overhyped as a sign that Bush was out of touch).  And if the price of a stronger nominee is several more months of media boredom – snooze away.