Again – I eschew conspiracy theories. I really, truly do.
But let’s look at some possibly (?) unconnected factoids:
Who’s The Outlier? The Rasmussen Poll has been broadly accurate, nationwide, for the past couple of years. This past year or so, it’s been chronicling a rise in GOP sentiment nationwide. It’s been especially interesting watching it chart Barack Obama’s fall from polling grace; on a given week, Rasmussen may show Obama a point or two lower than every other poll; lefties chant “It’s the Foxmussen poll!”; a week or two later, Gallup/Quinnipiac/Marist settle in at the numbers Rasmussen had, while Rasmussen shows another point drop. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Pattern Of Behavior: The Star Tribune editorial board is liberal. That usually, but not exclusively, means “DFL”; there’s a running rumor that the Strib editorial board is talking about endorsing Tom Horner (a fiendishly clever plan, really; ;they can brag they “endorsed a Republican”, while actually supporting someone whose policies are moderate-DFL). Above all, they do not want Tom Emmer as governor.
Institutional Imperative: The Hubert H. Humphrey Institute is a part of the U of Minnesota. It’s a building on the campus that is as clogged with left-of-center academics and pseudoacademics and past-their-shelf-life DFL politicians as any building in the state this side of Saint Paul City Hall. It’s a safe bet they don’t want Tom Emmer as governor – especially given that “higher education” is the only area where Emmer’s budget makes substantial, actual cuts in the state budget.
Follow The Budget Cut: Tom Emmer has spoken about the commensense case for withdrawing state subsidies from Minnesota Public Radio.
It’s not like they don’t get plenty of money. MPR’s studios are to regular commercial stations (or even less well-heeled public stations) as “CTU” from 24 was to a regular police station. When I was at KSTP, someone doing my job (or maybe a little less) at MPR made 50% more than I did; I’m not sure if MPR’s salaries have skyrocketed, but I do know that the salaries in commercial radio have not. And MPR’s reach goes waaaay beyond Minnesota with stations in Michigan and…um, Sun Valley Idaho? Why, yes; there’s a longstanding rumor in local broadcast circles that the Sun Valley station was built with the aid of a generous contribution from one Dayton family that didn’t want to miss “Praire Home Companion” while out on the slopes.
MPR staff will respond “but our subsidy isn’t that big!” So if the subsidy isn’t that big, and your organization is diong so very, very well, perhaps it is something they could give up For A Better Minnesota? Anyway – MPR faces a choice; a governor with sympathies toward allowing MPR to go its own way, or one that is, let’s just say, a top contributor.
(And yes, I repeat – I do believe MPR News does an acceptable job of seeking balance and detachment. Not perfect – nobody is – but they take a better shot at it than the Strib. That said, Tom Scheck, why hasn’t anyone gone over Mark Dayton’s budget with a fine-tooth comb?)
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I’m not saying that any of these factors mean that the Strib, the Humphrey Institute or MPR would commission polls that, a month before the election, would present skewed numbers to build up voter turnout for the party that was most likely to support them.
I”m just saying that if they did, I’m not sure how the poll results would be any different.
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