Ukraine

Greg

February 25, 2022

Oh for the Ukraine to become another Finland.

jdm

February 25, 2022

Yes, I’ve seen the same things at RedState. I am reminded of some recent comments by Edward Luttwak, et al.

Air strikes can reach any target but Russian troops are much too few to achieve a coup de main, the single act that both starts and ends a war. Yes they control airfields & some city centers. Beyond them individual sodiers & volunteers will start killing Russian soldiers w/o end

Or as someone else wrote:
Even if Putin does invade, I think that after he loses a few hundred soldiers, he will withdraw, just as he did in Chechnya. As the Economist wrote this week, “Ukraine’s forces are more than capable of giving Mr. Putin a bloody nose. They cannot stop Russia’s vastly superior forces from seizing a large portion of their territory, but they can make it a nightmare to hold it.”

Oops It seems that Putin neglected political preparation at home: nobody believes his claim that he had to stop “the genocide of Russians in eastern Ukraine”, or that NATO nuclear missiles were on their way to Ukraine. End-the war now petitions signed by 330,000 in less than 24 hours

I can’t find it now, of course, but somewhere I read something similar to that about Chechnya. That comment was that it was Russian mothers complaining about their dead children in a “pointless” bloody conflict there that were part of the reason Putin withdrew.

Mr. D

February 25, 2022

The story I have seen is about a Russian war ship giving some Ukrainian soldiers the Powderfinger treatment on an island in the Black Sea, but I assume everything we are told needs independent confirmation and that’s not currently on offer.

Emery

February 25, 2022

Weird how the same people who last week declared PM Trudeau a fascist dictator after civilian police arrested some protestors have decided that this week’s “genius” good guys are the ones driving the armored vehicle:

“Barbaric Russians run over a car of a civilian in Kyiv”
https://twitter.com/golub/status/1497211332571107332?s=20&t=PgV4XkXQ6QeIzOITvAp7uw

Ian

February 25, 2022

Weird how the same people

Weird how Emery’s reading and listening comprehension hasn’t improved over time, though not surprising given his colorful past of cut-and-paste arguments.

Joe Doakes

February 25, 2022

Hey, look who’s up early. The narrative emails must be frantic.

Canada was putatively a representative republic with a Charter to guarantee rights and freedoms, one of which was the right to protest government policy. Trudeau invoked emergency powers reserved for time of war to crush peaceful protesters, their families, their employers, their supporters. His bank runs will set back confidence in the financial system for years. Trudeau deserves criticism for blatantly violating his country’s own rules.

Russia pretends to have a parliamentary system but nobody believes Putin is anything other than a dictator. He’s acting exactly as a dictator would, exactly as everybody knew he would, after the world had months to prepare to prevent it but but decided not to. Heck, Biden even invited Putin to take part of Ukraine in a minor incursion. All you’re doing now is quibbling over what “minor” means.

The two situations are distinguishable and Conservative responses therefore differ. That’s not hypocrisy. That’s discernment.

Emery

February 25, 2022

“Possible admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO will require “reciprocal steps” ~ Russian Foreign Ministry

So now Russia believes it can dictate the national security policy of Sweden and Finland. Clear that Putin does not recognize the sovereign right of nations in his neighborhood to self government. This war is not just about Ukraine.

kinlaw

February 25, 2022

Hopefully the Ukrainians will bloody Putanesca’s nose badly enough, and protests at home add up to withdrawal. For the good of the world.

But if/when that happens I can’t WAIT for the presstitutes to praise Biden for solving the problem. Gonna be glorious.

ewaters925

February 25, 2022

There is no way Emery @ 8:46 AM is real …… is there?

justplainangry

February 25, 2022

925, trollbots gotta do what trollbots do – lie, obfuscate, misdirect, move the goalposts, post non-sequiturs and of course threadjack. Because that is all they have, that is all they know how to do, that is what they are instructed to do. Get used to it if you are going to hang around. And ignore the trollbots.

justplainangry

February 25, 2022

Putin’s ego will not allow him to pull out now that he is fully committed (he should not have gone after western Ukraine but that is academic now) so I am afraid it will get worse before it gets better. In the meantime, sanctions™ but not on oil and gas and not SWIFT nor Putin’s personal empire that drives the conflict. Adults in the White House™.

Emery

February 25, 2022

The most important factor that will shape Putin’s decision making is Ukraianin military and civilian resistance, not sanctions.

Joe Doakes

February 25, 2022

There must be some censorship on the battlefield. I don’t think we’re getting full information. Berg was right to invoke the 18th Law.

I mean seriously, how can you send an army of tanks to invade another nation and only kill 137 people? That’s not a World War, that’s a long weekend in Chicago.

What are we not being told?

justplainangry

February 25, 2022

Anything and everything, JD, welcome to fog of war. In the meantime, more from brilliant diplomat™:

UPDATE — 11:46 AM EST: The New York Times reports: “The U.S. met with China over three months to present intelligence showing Russia’s troop buildup near Ukraine and to urge Beijing to help avert war, U.S. officials said. Chinese officials rebuffed the U.S. and shared the information with Moscow.”

kinlaw

February 25, 2022

Lol, Let’s Go Brandon! He’s the foreign policy president, ha ha ha ha.

America is BACK. Respect, baby.

And the idiot David Brooks today? We CAN”T let Trump near the white house again!!!!

fast richard

February 25, 2022

I’ve been to Gostomel, where the Antonov airport is. There is also a glass bottle factory there, where my second wife used to work. I hope the people I met there are safe.

Night Writer

February 25, 2022

I have a daughter living in Finland, so naturally I’m interested in what’s going on. She messaged a quick take this morning. Russia’s actions and the possibility of joining NATO is Topic 1 for just about everybody. Interestingly, her sense is that the older Fins are more opposed to joining NATO, and some even saying they feel Russia’s interests align with Finland’s. Most younger folks are in favor of joining. My daughter estimates – based on what she’s read – that it’s maybe 60% in favor of joining, 20% opposed, and 20% undecided. They are expecting an announcement from President Niinisto today on his latest meetings with NATO representatives.

In general, they consider Putin’s threat of repercussions to be mostly empty since he’s likely going to have his hands full with Ukraine for a time, and Georgia may be a more likely next target. Nevertheless, no one is unaware of the potential situations. (She also notes that a friend and co-worker from her time in Prague lives in Kiev, and they are essentially under siege right now.)

IIRC, the Treaty of Lisbon essentially stated that Russia would be “hands off” with Finland, but the Finnish side of the bargain is to be a neutral buffer with the West and not do anything provocative. I’d imagine that joining NATO would impact that “neutrality” quite a bit, and would definitely be considered “provocative”. What wonderful times we live in!

Mammuthus Primigenesis

February 25, 2022

The US has always been good at the technical, physical parts of intelligence, like counting tanks and airplanes. We have good eyes in the sky, even if the info we get from them is sometimes politicized.
But human intelligence? Our enemies have been eating our lunch for a long time. The human intelligence we get is probably second hand, from our allies in Europe and the Israelis, and of course the Russki’s may be stove-piping intel into the CIA and NSA.
In the past our military intelligence has been very good, but recently standards have slipped: think Bradley Manning and Reality Winner.

Mammuthus Primigenesis

February 25, 2022

If you need a little chuckle on this final, chilly, February Friday, check out candidate Joe Biden’s promise to restore American leadership:
The world does not organize itself. American leadership, backed by clear goals and sound strategies, is necessary to effectively address the defining global challenges of our time. In order to lead again, we must restore our credibility and influence. From day one of a Biden administration, other countries will once again have reason to trust and respect the word of an American president. Working together, democracies can and must confront the rise of populists, nationalists, and demagogues; the growing strength of autocratic powers and their efforts to divide and manipulate democracies; and the threats unique to our time, including the renewed threat of nuclear war, mass migration, the disruptive impact of new technologies, and climate change.
https://joebiden.com/americanleadership/

There is so much more to mock . . . from Biden’s promise to end the high-tech surveillance state, through restoring American’s economic security, to securing the nation’s borders. All lies, and his voters swallowed them whole.

Joe Doakes

February 25, 2022

The United States is revealed to be a paper tiger. The whole world knows it. That’s not a good thing. It doesn’t just make us Look weak, it shows we actually ARE weak, and that emboldens others to push harder on every front.

They watched as Lesko Brandon let himself get routed in Afghanistan and then purged our military of warriors in favor of wokesters. They see our ships crashing or stuck in port with Covid. They know we’re rehabbing 50-year old airplanes because we can’t field an effective modern force.

They heard him bluster about invasion dates but noticed he did nothing to prevent it. They know he’s not going to start a nuclear war over Ukraine. They read his list of financial sanctions and sighed with relief – they know how to get around bean counters, they’ve been doing it since Saddam.

The rest of the world thinks success is measured by territory occupied. Brandon thinks it’s measured by invitations to swell parties, that he can change world opinion to snub the Russians and make them come crawling back to ask forgiveness. I’m not holding my breath.

Joe Doakes

February 25, 2022

NATO is about to be revealed as a paper tiger. Russian forces in Ukraine are next door to Poland. If Russia crosses the border, Poland can invoke the NATO war guarantees to call on every NATO member for help. What then?

What will Germany do if Poland is invaded? Last month, Germany offered Ukraine’s military 5,000 helmets to defend against the Russians. What will Germany offer Poland?

What will Britain do if Poland is invaded? Send a few hundred SAS and maybe some Gurkhas? To hold off how many divisions?

France has already surrendered, but what of Belgium? Surely they’ll help push the Russians back? The Diplomat Corps alone could give them a blizzard of paper cuts and maybe they could get the Italians to throw in some lemons.

Does anyone believe the NATO countries – which have shirked their defenses for decades free-riding on American largess – are about to rise up in military wrath to smite the Russians in Poland?

NATO was backed by American might and American will. Those are gone now, squandered by Lesko Brandon and The Light Bringer before him. The only thing holding back Putin is prudence – going slowly to avoid someone pushing The Button in panic because they have nothing left to lose. Let’s hope that someone isn’t Lesko Brandon.

justplainangry

February 25, 2022

JD, how dare you mock the effectiveness of sanctions! To wit…. this will bring Putin to his knees!

In an extraordinary last-minute move Manhattan’s Carnegie Hall has cut the acclaimed Russian conductor Valery Gergiev, a close supporter of Vladimir Putin, from its programming this weekend “due to recent world events,” a spokesperson at the prestigious institution told AFP Thursday.

LONDON — The European Broadcasting Union says that Russia will not be allowed an entry in this year’s Eurovision Song Contest. The union said in a statement Friday that given the unprecedented crisis in Ukraine, the inclusion of a Russian entry would bring the competition into “disrepute.″

Formula 1 Cancels 2022 Russian Grand Prix in Response to Ukraine Invasion

justplainangry

February 25, 2022

and then there is this

Italian prime minister Mario Draghi successfully secured a carve out for Italian luxury goods from the EU’s package of economic sanctions against Nato, EU dip tells me. ‘Apparently selling Gucci loafers to oligarchs is more of a priority than hitting back at Putin,’ source adds.

while

Action on Russian gas imports has also not been forthcoming, with Bloomberg noting that, in fact, “Russian gas flows to Europe [are rising] despite sanctions, with exports through Ukraine up almost 38 per cent on Thursday and expected to increase by another 24 per cent on Friday”.

Indeed, while the German government has suspended certification of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline completed last September — a measure that will not prevent it from being opened at a later date, given the infrastructure is not actually being dismantled — the Prime Minister of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki, has noted that Nord Stream 1 remains open, and his European Union partners have been unwilling to discuss shutting it down.

and nevermind this:

Joao Vale de Almeida, the EU’s ambassador to Britain, complained that people should not be “obsessed” over SWIFT and that the sanctions the EU is adopting will “have a huge impact ” on Russia, and Irish prime minister Micheal Martin also came out to bat for the bloc, suggesting that “People have different perspectives on the efficacy or value of SWIFT in itself” and that he did not “think we should singularly focus on it”.

justplainangry

February 25, 2022

So, by keeping crude prices up, refusing to stop buying energy from Russia and allowing SWIFT transactions, EU and the rest of the world elite-run goobernments are funding Putins adventure into Ukraine. Diplomacy™ genius by Adults in the White House™.

Mammuthus Primigenesis

February 25, 2022

Even during the cold war, NATO was a paper tiger. The Soviets could overwhelm NATO forces in Europe before the US could mobilize & get enough men and material to Europe to find a conventional war.
Our nukes backed NATO. Without American nukes and B29s and IRBM’s, the Soviets would have invaded Europe before 1960.

justplainangry

February 25, 2022

Peace through strength. Well, projection of strength. Now, gotta go with Syndrome:

“I’ll sell my inventions so that everyone can be superheroes. Everyone can be super! And when everyone’s super, no-one will be.”

Emery

February 25, 2022

The Finnish foreign minister Pekka Haavisto is correct in his assessment that Putin is trying to rebuild the USSR. That ultimately means rolling NATO back, not coming to an accommodation with the alliance. This construction project looks similar to building the Greater Reich eight decades ago in the same neighborhood. The use of the flimsiest of propaganda excuses as justifications by Putin suggests a similar sociopathic dysfunction at the heart of the leader’s psychology. The Ukraine pretext looks eerily similar to the Nazi provocation staged on the Polish border at the beginning of September 1939. Is Putin signaling something with this parallel?

One presumes that the recognition of Russian-speaking portions of Ukraine as separate republics and then sending in “peacekeeping” military forces is a tactic likely to be repeated with the Baltic Republics and their large Russian speaking minorities along their eastern borders. Do Putin and Lavrov have Goebbels’ diary open on their desks?

Many implicitly believe that NATO membership with its accompanying Article 5 commitment provides a one-stop, bulletproof security guarantee for a newly minted Nato member. Job done, borders secure. However, one might look back at the Cold War thinking around the American security guarantee to Europe which was structured to ensure that the Americans would be “all in” when it came to defending Europe up to an including the use of nuclear weapons. In fact, the large 350,000 person American army in Germany during the Cold War was commonly called “the tripwire” whose presence would guarantee an all-out response if Russian tanks rolled west. Two generations of American soldiers practiced defending the Fulda Gap.

But there was a deep insecurity among many European leaders in that era. What would happen if the Americans wouldn’t go nuclear to defend Europe? Settle for a ceasefire or armistice? That was the question Charles de Gaulle asked. The general responded with a separate and independent French nuclear retaliatory capability, a capability separate from American restraint (the Americans have a firm grip on the UK nuclear force). Strategically France is the one country in Europe that punches above its weight.

So when NATO sets down a border, such as along the eastern edge of the Baltics, it is setting down a Red Line. This Red Line cannot be treated like the one President Obama laid down in Syria and then didn’t enforce in one of the great acts of negligence in presidential speech writing. The eastern edge of the Baltics is a real treaty line. When that treaty line gets laid down, then the alliance and its most powerful member, the United States, are saying: “this is the line where at the extremity we will go nuclear.” Everything is on the table, nothing is off. The unthinkable becomes thinkable. That’s what Red Line means.

The United States spends and has spent billions developing small tactical nuclear weapons. If the US military builds them, one be assured that there is a doctrine on their employment, contingency plans, and training. One obvious use is deep bunker busting such as subterranean nuclear facilities. The first mini-nuke opens the can, the second one finishes the job. Another use would be command centers in so-called decapitation strikes to take out an adversary’s top strategic leadership. When you lay down an Article 5 border guarantee, you’re bringing all of this American military capability along with it. You get the whole baggage train. So when you go Article 5, don’t say nuclear is “unthinkable” because Article 5 means that nuclear now is. That’s what Article 5 ultimately is, a guarantee that the Americans will go nuclear to defend vital interests, not negotiate the border away.

Interestingly, various peace activists in the 1980s protested American intermediate-range missiles in Europe on the premise of what would happen if the Americans would fight to the last European—have a nuclear exchange in Europe—and then negotiate an armistice and give the rubble away so to speak instead of going “all the way.” An ugly thought, but after Donald Trump, now credible. Remember Helsinki!

When it comes to security, NATO and Article 5 means that no NATO member is going to be “a little bit pregnant” concerning invasion. There will be no Ukrainian situation with breakaway eastern provinces infiltrated by little green men from Russia. The Ukraine is gray. The Baltic Republics will be black and white. Or there won’t be a NATO.

One should keep in mind with the current crisis in the Ukraine and the maintenance of the eastern border of NATO that the NATO border issue presents real black-and-white issues. Whatever else Putin is doing, he is showing that the future trend of events is towards the starkest of choices. It is going to get harder, not easier. The West has come to a place where the Red Lines really count this time.

Mr. Haavisto says of access to the NATO security guarantee that: ”Every country should have that right.” One might add that the US government retains the ultimate authority on deciding whether or not that check will clear the bank. Otherwise one risks the inevitable prospect of going one Red Line too far.

justplainangry

February 25, 2022

well, there goes a perfectly good thread… tl;dr

Mammuthus Primigenesis

February 25, 2022

Back in 2015 an American academic named Karen Dawisha wrote a book called “Putin’s Kleptocracy.” It must have struck a nerve in the Kremlin, because Putin managed to quash its publication in Britain. The US has different libel laws so it was published here.
Back in 2015 the book caused a little stir. I actually bought and read the thing. I have an academic interest in modern Russian and Eastern European history. Believe me, that doesn’t help you pick up chicks.
Putin has always been secretive and Western Journalists aren’t used to peering through the shadows Putin has cast over his past. Dawisha was persistent and had contacts. Dawisha is a political scientist, not a journalist. Her book is impeccably researched.
Putin is a very bad man. He was trained as a lawyer, as most administrator-level KGB agents were. When he was in the KGB, in the 1980s, he was part of a unit assigned to East Germany to monitor the Stasi, to make sure they stayed loyal to the CPUSSR.
The KGB, after Stalin, was above the CPUSSR. The CPUSSR had hundreds of millions of dollars in foreign accounts, mostly in German banks. To keep the CPUSSR diplomats in Europe honest, the KGB had control of the accounts. The CPUSSR diplomats kept their eyes on the KGB to make sure access to the accounts was not abused, and vice versa.
When Yeltsin dissolved the CPUSSR the KGB administrators found that they had personal control over those billions of dollars. They withdrew it and started new banks, chartered in Europe, and used those new banks to finance the purchase of USSR state industries and commodity producers in Russia. This was called, by Western capitalists, “privatization.”
Putin was a fixer. If you wanted to know who actually had to sign the paperwork to allow you to buy oil at the Russian “internal” price, and who had to sign the paperwork to allow you to then sell that oil at the global market price, he’d hook you up.
And that was just the beginning.
tl;dr, indeed.

Joe Doakes

February 26, 2022

There’s no doubt Putin is a bad man. There’s no doubt Russia would like to expand. There’s no doubt the NATO treaty treats the boundary as a red line. The doubt is whether America will honor its treaty obligation to protect Europe from Russia.

Do we honestly believe Lesko Brandon will order American military to attack Russian military using nuclear weapons on Polish soil? Who believes that? Raise your hand.

Joe Doakes

February 26, 2022

England, France, Spain: they were all global superpowers in their time. Their time passed. They’re now bit players on a world stage dominated by others.

The USA was the dominant global superpower at one time, but are we still? Doesn’t look like it. Looks as if we’re slipping as China and Russia are ascending. Could be wrong, of course. Could be that China and Russia are in worse shape than we are, but are better at covering it up. They can’t afford to parade their fools lest everyone mock them; we do parade our fools and even install them in office, because we don’t care if other nations mock us. We believe we have the reserve capacity or martial strength and national will to rise up when needed to dominate the world at will.

We might be wrong. The reserves might be spent. If so, how do we gracefully manage the decline? What can we preserve of our former freedoms, our former economic prosperity, our former national security?

That’s the challenge for the next Congress. That’s why we must vote even harder this time.

justplainangry

February 26, 2022

JD, it is all about brilliant diplomacy™:

Ukraine and Russia Officials Negotiating a Meeting – Biden Administration Tells Zelensky to Stop, Only U.S. Permitted to Negotiate With Russia

in the meantime:

Rejecting US evacuation offer, Zelensky says I need anti-tank ammo, ‘not a ride’

while

Pelosi Says It’s Important to ‘Understand the Brilliance’ of Biden’s Response to Russian Invasion of Ukraine

You can’t the script better than the headlines. Does anyone here has any doubts whether Jughead gives damn about what is happening in Europe (or even in the US for that matter), or does he only care about what flavor pudding he will pull out of the box?

jdm

February 26, 2022

The doubt is whether America will honor its treaty obligation to protect Europe from Russia

From the Soviets. Let’s be precise here.

At one time, it was (understood to be) in the USA’s best interest to prevent the potential world-wide domination of communism and so NATO was created for western Europe. NATO operated by basically permitting the US to send and to station and to hang around western European countries to deal with a Soviet attack. The western European countries at the time were too weak and fragile to fend for themselves.

The western European countries took advantage of this situation by refusing to become stronger and less fragile – even tho’ they could’ve stepped up and done the right thing for the treaty organization. They did not spend the monies they were required to spend even as they became more and more wealthy. They (especially Germany) looked at US bases as “cash cows” to be milked. They let their military units’ preparedness, such as it ever was, dwindle until they became just as much for show as their now mostly female defense ministers.

And then, when the Soviets became the Russians, they (mostly Germany, but also the Scandis) made trade and other financial arrangements. And cultural arrangements (ever seen the Metallica concert in Moscow in 1991?). But like any and all government creations, NATO continued to exist. There wasn’t even a discussion as to what NATO should become, if not dissolved. Oh, wait, let’s not forget the EU military; now there’s something real.

And so now, we continue to use and refer to the treaty zombie, NATO, as if it was anything. NATO is even expanded into what used to be enemy territory without the enemy actually having been defeated – that would certainly have no repercussions, right? And all the while the western Euros (and then US too) continue to treat the military as fun social experiments. There is no NATO – it doesn’t exist except as a military bureaucracy.

Yeah, so, I understand, tl;dr, but the answer is *no, America will not honor its treaty obligation to protect Europe*. Fuck ’em. Euros don’t care, why should we?

jdm

February 26, 2022

jpa, that headline, Pelosi Says It’s Important to ‘Understand the Brilliance’ of Biden’s Response to Russian Invasion of Ukraine is a perfect encapsulation of everything that is wrong – heck, evil – about the Democrats’ notion of foreign policy: if the policy doesn’t enhance Democrat power, they’re not interested.

justplainangry

February 26, 2022

I got one even better! wait for it…

Biden admin says it will keep working with Putin in ‘important areas,’ likely climate change

justplainangry

February 26, 2022

jdm, what we are witnessing right now is all those chickens coming home to roost at the opportune moment when there is a castrati in the WH. Oh, and those 5000 picklehaube from Germany, their NATO contribution, finally arrived, after the invasion started. Must have been manufactured in China, and you know, logistics delays.

justplainangry

February 26, 2022

Back to 18th law – headline and snippet follows. Dontcha wish there was honest reporting, not just propaganda.

Facebook’s Election Fact-Checker Spreads Fake Footage Of Artillery Impacts In A Populated Area In Ukraine
…But in the last few days, it’s become clear that while some of the footage and images being disseminated across social media are depicting the tragic beginnings of a new war, some are not actually what they appear…

…Some of the photos and footage being shared on Twitter, Facebook, and TikTok appear to be fake, some are from previous conflicts years ago, explosions in other countries, or even from video games.

Mammuthus Primigenesis

February 26, 2022

Pelosi Says It’s Important to ‘Understand the Brilliance’ of Biden’s Response to Russian Invasion of Ukraine
I think that there is more gone on with this quote.
The Ukrainian situation is such an obvious FUBAR Pelosi wants to use it as a marker to see which journalists and pols are on-side. Report or react to her statement as being farcical, you have identified yourself to her as one of the bad guys.

Emery

February 26, 2022

Germany will now supply 1,000 anti-tank weapons, 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine. This is a major policy change.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/policy-shift-berlin-approve-export-rpgs-kyiv-by-third-country-2022-02-26/

@JD —Throughout the Cold War, NATO planners were certain that their conventional forces alone would be unable to stop a full-scale invasion of Western Europe by the Red Army. As a result, European leaders sought constant reassurance that the United States would use its strategic nuclear forces, if needed, to defend them.

During the late 1960’s, and well into the 1980’s, practitioners in and out of government engaged in fierce debates over questions few non-experts remember today: Could US strategic forces survive a first strike by the USSR in sufficient numbers to launch a proportionate (or debilitating) counter-strike? Would an American president really be willing to risk a nuclear attack on New York to defend Antwerp?

You can imagine how these questions might be answered today.

Skepticism about the reliability of US security guarantees induced France and the UK to deploy their own ‘independent’ strategic forces. As early as the 1950’s, however, NATO sought to counter the USSR’s advantage in conventional arms by quietly (secretly) deploying an astonishing variety of very short-range, low-yield nuclear weapons across the Continent. Intended for battlefield use, these systems included gravity bombs, mines, and artillery, and presented serious command-and-control risks that are almost unthinkable today.

The National Security Archive has recently published an excellent series of original source documents on these issues.
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault/2020-07-21/us-nuclear-presence-western-europe-1954-1962

The upshot is that US security guarantees to NATO ultimately depend on credible threats to escalate the use of force in defense of America’s vital interests, up to and including strategic nuclear strikes.

As a result, NATO membership must be limited to countries that are truly of vital strategic interest to the United States. It is far from clear that Ukraine would ever meet this standard.

Emery

February 26, 2022

Throughout the Cold War, NATO planners were certain that their conventional forces alone would be unable to stop a full-scale invasion of Western Europe by the Red Army. As a result, European leaders sought constant reassurance that the United States would use its strategic nuclear forces, if needed, to defend them.

During the late 1960’s, and well into the 1980’s, practitioners in and out of government engaged in fierce debates over questions few non-experts remember today: Could US strategic forces survive a first strike by the USSR in sufficient numbers to launch a proportionate (or debilitating) counter-strike? Would an American president really be willing to risk a nuclear attack on New York to defend Antwerp?

You can imagine how these questions might be answered today.

Skepticism about the reliability of US security guarantees induced France and the UK to deploy their own ‘independent’ strategic forces. As early as the 1950’s, however, NATO sought to counter the USSR’s advantage in conventional arms by quietly (secretly) deploying an astonishing variety of very short-range, low-yield nuclear weapons across the Continent. Intended for battlefield use, these systems included gravity bombs, mines, and artillery, and presented serious command-and-control risks that are almost unthinkable today.

The National Security Archive has recently published an excellent series of original source documents on these issues (https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault/2020-07-21/us-nuclear-presence-western-europe-1954-1962).

The upshot is that US security guarantees to NATO ultimately depend on credible threats to escalate the use of force in defense of America’s vital interests, up to and including strategic nuclear strikes.

As a result, NATO membership must be limited to countries that are truly of vital strategic interest to the United States. It is far from clear that Ukraine would ever meet this standard.

Emery

February 26, 2022

Germany will now supply 1,000 anti-tank weapons, 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine. This is a major policy change.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/policy-shift-berlin-approve-export-rpgs-kyiv-by-third-country-2022-02-26/

justplainangry

February 26, 2022

triple tl;dr of the inane propaganda to save face in light of brilliant diplomacy™ successes. Because NATO will just walk in front of russian tanks to hand-over the missiles. Lip service and virtue signaling… and trollbots know more than anyone about that.

Emery

February 26, 2022

Wowser—had no idea MBerg would be working the Mod-Bot on a Saturday! (tip of the hat)

jdm

February 26, 2022

Germany, a nation of woke fuck-ups *should be* helping to arm the Ukrainians.

Perhaps the only silver lining in all this is that Angela Merkel isn’t still around to make things even worse. It was her brilliant leadership that led to shutting down Germany’s nuclear power industry in favor of buying Russian energy.

Further, as that all unfolded, Democrats in the United States rushed to take the side of the Germans in order to own the bad orange man. Things got so absurd that major leftwing figures began to proclaim Merkel was the real “leader of the free world.” In reality, Germany was just enriching itself and the Russians at the expense of its neighbors. Yet, if you dared to suggest what they were doing was idiotic and counter-productive, the talking heads on CNN [and trolls from certain blogs in MN] would accuse you of “undermining our alliances.”

jdm

February 26, 2022

I enjoy making fun of woke, candy-ass Euros, but truth be told, I am quite surprised and happy to admit I enjoy even more seeing the Euros stand up for themselves.

And to go even further, I’ll have to admit that none of this would probably have taken place were Trump still in the White House. Once the Euros figured out that no help was forthcoming from the US with Mr Dementia and the Ho’ in place, they started to grow some balls and step up. I credit Biden with this development.

Don’t say I don’t try to build bridges.

jdm

February 26, 2022

I read somewhere that the Ukranian DOT was altering signs to confuse their “visitors”. This whole attack thing is not going quite as well as Putin thought. Can some verify the message?

justplainangry

February 26, 2022

It is photoshop and a polite translation is “to hell”

Emery

February 26, 2022

“There is no NATO – it doesn’t exist except as a military bureaucracy.”

As they say in Ukraine, “it’s NATO that will soon be asking to join Ukraine”.

Mammuthus Primigenesis

February 26, 2022

I am watching Trump address CPAC. I voted 3rd party in 2016. I voted for Trump, enthusiastically, on election day 2020 at an actual polling place. But frankly, at this time, I think that Trump is yesterday’s man.
But Trump, at 75 is impressive compared to Biden at 79. Trump is coherent. He speaks clearly. He improvises. Trump is not senile.
I have noticed that some conservative pundits are doing what I mentioned here months ago: compare Biden’s speeches and debates from 2012 with Biden’s highly scripted performances today. Biden is obviously suffering from severe mental decline.
Trump today is the same guy he was in 2016 as far as I can tell.

Mammuthus Primigenesis

February 26, 2022

A lot of Eastern Ukraine hates NATO.
To many eastern Europeans NATO is thought of an occupying force, the post WW2 version of the Nazis. That is just what they believe. The people in eastern Ukraine that are friendly to Russia don’t want Ukraine to become a NATO signatory. If Ukraine remains whole, it will never become part of NATO. Politics internal to Ukraine will not allow it.
If Putin manages to annex the eastern, ethnic Russian provinces of Ukraine, the remaining independent provinces of Ukraine will be more pro-NATO.

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106 responses to “Ukraine”

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