Misunderestimated

As one who underestimated Donald Trump’s campaign until the moment Wisconsin got called, I’m doing a lot of retroactive learning.

And there are sources to a lot of that in this piece.

Long pullquote:

Some have argued that President Trump’s recent State of the Union speech was designed primarily to troll Democrats. I disagree. The trolling effect (e.g., a steady stream of bad optics televised in prime time—and subsequently easily turned around into an RNC ad—showing Democrats behaving disrespectfully, rolling their eyes, shaking their heads, groaning, looking down at their cell phones, and even walking out in a huff) is real, but was a fully expected side-benefit of the address. No, the President is on something of a John Boyd “Destruction and Creation” mission.

Operating like a general giving the command for his massive political army to advance on the adversary, the State of the Union speech was the best political oration of my lifetime. I’ll try to quickly detail why  by quoting a personal favorite, Richard Fernandez of the Belmont Club. In a piece he wrote in December 2016, just prior to Trump’s inauguration as our 45th President and in the context of Trump’s signaling with respect to what should be our posture with China, Fernandez wrote that:

The Democratic Party should stop underestimating Donald Trump. The good news is that he moves at nongovernment speed. The bad news is that, due to his outsider status, nobody knows exactly where he is going.

Fernandez, like McLaughlin the year before, was noting the uptempo speed of Trump. McLaughlin’s discussion of Trump’s use of the OODA Loop, correctly noted that speed lies at the core of Boyd’s theory of conflict, and has been the most influential element of Boyd’s strategic thinking. Further, “Boyd’s core insight was about the interactive and disruptive nature of speed on human decision-making: success in conflict can be rapid and dramatic if one can “operate inside the OODA Loop” of the opponent.”

When you begin to understand this, you’re well on your way to understanding our 45th president.

The whole thing is worth a read.

37 thoughts on “Misunderestimated

  1. Dear Trump geniuses, can you tell us what happens to the 21 Trillion dollar debt when interest rates rise and the Government raises spending and at the same time is receiving less money from taxes? I remember that you people were really worried about the US becoming Greece. It would appear that no longer matters.

  2. Hey, pissant roll. You will have to do better, much better. Nobody here would agree that the budget just passed was a good idea. The budget was a surrender to your precious dumbocRat stooges – why else would they have voted for it? If sHrillary was in charge, you would be heralding it as a best thing since sliced bread. We on the pother hand, have no issue calling a turd a turd, especially when it stinks so badly.

    So yea, keep on trolling, Shvonder-eTASS. You have nothing on sTrumpet in that department.

  3. Liberals unintentionally help Trump succeed in two ways: first, by failing to anticipate where he’s going (admittedly a difficult task with a frenetic executive); and second by reacting predictably.

    Trump proposes a parade to honor veterans. Liberals screech about the cost. Average Joe knows Liberals aren’t shy about spending money on things THEY like and concludes Liberals are stingy now because Liberals don’t respect veterans. Trump wins the battle for hearts and minds without spending a dime on an actual parade.

    Trump 1, Liberals with an assist.

  4. JD, you forget about libturds’ politics of convenience. Chuckles was for parade before he was against it.

    And this goes for repubes as well. I am angry as hell at the majority of them who squandered political capital and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by passing and signing off on this turd of a budget. But you gotta give it to them, they caved in at a record pace! It took just two weeks to surrender. Pathetic.

  5. Repost ~ because I can. Increase the deficit when the economy is booming — I must have missed that class when studying economics.

  6. JD, how about we take the parade money and spend it on VA hospitals? The soldiers might appreciate that.

  7. You’re right emery, the republicans absolutely have to accomplish significant majorities in the House and the Senate this year or they will always be stuck with “bipartisan” deals that spend obscene amounts of ratepayer money

    but you are stunningly off the mark with this comment: “at the same time is receiving less money from taxes” Have you never studied economic history? huge tax cust worked for JFK there is no reason they won’t work for DJT.

    https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/revenues-climb-5-2-in-first-month-of-gop-tax-cuts/

    money quote:
    “revenues for the first four months of the current fiscal year — which started last October — were $46 billion higher than the same period the year before.
    Individual income and payroll taxes, it says, rose by $68 billion. “That change largely reflects increases in wages and salaries,” the CBO says.
    Those gains in wages and salaries are likely to continue, if not accelerate, under the tax cuts.”

  8. Pingback: If All You See… » Pirate's Cove

  9. OK, so the Democrats being unified behind higher spending means the Republicans don’t care about the impact of the deficit and debt, and therefore Trump voters are hypocrites.

    If I were a logic instructor, I would collect Emery’s comments as examples of what not to do. Yeesh.

  10. I remember that you people were really worried about the US becoming Greece.

    Oh, those were the days, right? Having that checkmate always on the ready whenever Republicans spent money. But see Republicans have finally figured out that most people don’t care about the national debt or running annual deficits. I mean, except for a few principled loudmouths, most cost-cutters want spending cut for other people’s stuff not theirs. And besides, many people don’t even care about their own debt or deficits.

    But see, since then, thanks to many years of electoral lessons from the Left, the Right has finally learned that principles like fiscal probity or restrained government don’t mean squat, it’s all about power. Do whatever it takes to get it and retain it.

    And you know what? Now that the Right know that “rules don’t matter”, you’re gonna love these new times.

  11. “Mnuchin Says $1 Trillion U.S. Debt Plan Isn’t Affecting Markets.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-06/mnuchin-says-1-trillion-u-s-debt-plan-isn-t-affecting-markets

    The article continues:
    The Treasury Department said last week that the U.S. would boost note and bond sales for the first time since 2009 this year to finance rising budget deficits, fueled in part by the tax overhaul President Donald Trump signed into law at the end of last year.

    JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists last month lifted their forecast for net new Treasury issuance in 2018 by about $100 billion, to around $1.42 trillion, after the passage of the tax bill. Net sales in 2017 totaled about $550 billion.

    I might add that in addition to credit market impacts, fiscal stimulus at what appears to be close to full employment threatens higher interest rates and higher inflation.

    Can’t the US go into Chapter 11, like a really smart “stable genius” businessman would do if he were running a country like a business?

  12. Have you never studied economic history?

    Only Marxist theory, Mac. I think it is plainly obvious in all Shvonder -eTASS posts, regardless of the sock puppet he chooses to use.

  13. Repost ~ because I can. Increase the deficit when the economy is booming — I must have missed that class when studying economics.

    An answer repost, because you can run, but you cannot hide: There is never a good time to raise deficit. Never. Of course since your economics instructor obviously learned at the teat of Krugman, your trolling on the subject are DOA.

  14. “I don’t think that’s had an impact on the market at the moment,” Mnuchin told reporters at the Capitol on Tuesday. “The debt markets are one of the most liquid markets in the world and are reacting very well.” ~ Steven Mnuchin (Bloomberg article)

    Liquidity is not the same thing as elasticity. Do we have the dumbest Treasury Secretary ever or what?

  15. I guess I missed the part of the quote where Mnuchin says that liquidity & elasticity are the same thing.

  16. Read the article.

    The Dow Jones has lost about 10% of its value, driven in part by inflation fears and the probability of interest rate hikes.

    Tell us again how great the stock market is and how wonderful the 1.5 trillion in additional debt will be for our economy.

    When things start heading seriously south in the market, Trump’s lingering support will evaporate like a dew drop on a hot summer morning.

  17. so emery, what you’re saying is the emery-collective™ has no substance just deflection? Sounds like its time for a conference call.

  18. I stopped making economic predictions long ago, Emery. You won’t find a comment of mine praising or condemning any economic policy of Trump or Obama. I have at times commented on the real world effects of those policies — for example, I have noted here that Obama’s stimulus spending did not have the effect Obama’s council of economic advisers claimed that it would have.
    I haven’t moved any capital or cashed out any equities since before the 2016 election. I don’t plan to now.
    FYI, I think it is a fools game to outguess the market. I invest in index funds and do what I can to encourage high growth economic policies. That’s the advice I’d give anyone who does not have inside info or enough capital to nudge the market.

  19. At the moment the DJIA is about where it was ten weeks ago. Pardon me for not jumping out a window.

  20. Fun with numbers, which are facts so thoroughly ignored by Shvonder-eTASS in his many guises, all troll-like.

    First year of 0bumbler: Stock up 20.3% sTrumpet: 32.1%
    Market valuation: entire 0bumbler presidency: +$12.3T. So far (1 year) under sTrumpet: $6.5T.

    Take your picks. Oh yeah, you voted for sHrillary, and no doubt more than once. Say, did any one in your economics class teach about market correction? Or did one of your sock puppet personalities fall asleep during that class so now you have a cognitive void?

    Swiftee was so right when he diagnosed you with Dunning-Kruger syndrome. You are a poster boy and an impeccable case study of this effect.

  21. MP what the emery-collective™ doesn’t understand is the stock market is NOT the economy

  22. I guess I missed the part of the quote where Mnuchin says that liquidity & elasticity are the same thing.

    You see MP, when Shvonder-eTASS cannot provide an answer, they start putting words in people’s mouths.

  23. Debt which cannot be repaid, will not be repaid. It will be defaulted on or inflated away. Everybody knows it but nobody cares, because nobody knows how bad the consequences of default will be — but we know for certain what the consequences of losing federal funding for our pet project will be, so keep piling up the debt as long as the money ends up on my plate.

    The war for fiscal responsibility was lost a hundred years ago when Americans embraced the notion that the government could rob Peter to pay Paul and we’d all get rich. Can’t fix stupid.

  24. I would say this seems to be the price the market is paying for 15 months without pullbacks and corrections, and it is now officially a correction (-10%). My concern at this point is understanding the catalyst for the pullback. Yes, a 10% correction is not a rare event historically, and we were way overdue, but when it comes out of nowhere (other than an extended market) you have to wonder what is up. Maybe the bond market bubble is bursting. Maybe it’s the fallout from the recent implosion of the crypto-currencies. Maybe a lot of things, I don’t know. But the selling did seem a little overly intense for just a simple pullback from the highs without much of a catalyst. I just hope it is nothing more than that.

  25. Emery-
    If I had to guess, I would say it was the cryptocurrency crash that triggered it. But it was just the trigger. The potential was there.
    So cryptocurrency collapse is the proximate cause, in the opinion of a a guy who took two semesters of econ in community college — but who showed up for every class and paid attention.

  26. Joe Doakes wrote:
    “. . . because nobody knows how bad the consequences of default will be . . .”
    I don’t think we’ll ever see default. It is wrong, IMHO, to look at tax receipts as the only asset that can be used to service debt. You need to look at all of the assets of the federal government, which includes vast amounts of land and the natural resources that can be taken from it.

  27. but when it comes out of nowhere (other than an extended market)

    Wow. So if it was an extended market it must have come from somewhere, no? Demonstrable lack of logic right there. No wonder it was so easy to diagnose your Dunning-Kruger condition. You really should try harder if you want to be taken seriously.

  28. The old golden rule: A good indicator remains a good indicator as long as it’s not used as an indicator.

  29. Virtually all economic measures are dynamic. Multi-variate analysis misses some variables because the system works to create new, unknown variables. You can make a graph that shows the supply & demand curves for a product, but the only real thing is the point where they cross — where money has changed hands — the rest of the supply and demand curves are pure conjecture.

  30. MP our biggest creditors are China and Japan. The federal government owns almost all of Nevada. Are you suggesting we hand them the keys to the state and call it even?

    Intriguing.

  31. Joe, if I have a say, the Chinese and Japs don’t get a state, but I’d consider San Francisco and Seattle, if they promise to close the border.

  32. Back in the old, old days of Hot Air? Or was it (the precursor to) Red State? Hmm… anyway, there was a guy who was fully conservative but perhaps a bit more free thinking than the traditional dyed-in-wool conservative who set the comments ablaze with his observation that if you owe the bank a few hundred thousand, you have a problem. If you owe the bank a few hundred million, the bank has a problem. Multiply as appropriate for national economies.

    OTOH, I do like that idea of trading away San Fran for debt reduction.

  33. Just open up the west coast for offshore for oil leases & sell the leases to the Chinese. Cali doesn’t own the oil that’s offshore. We Americans do.

  34. If only economists had worked out before that unlimited spending was the answer to economic problems……

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