Shot in the Dark

Joe Doakes from Como Park emails:

“A good way to tell whether a pundit or citizen understands the field of risk management well enough to critique Trump’s performance is to ask how they view his history of bankruptcies. If a person thinks those bankruptcies are a sign of poor management, they probably don’t know much about business. But if they understand the few bankruptcies – out of hundreds of projects – as part of a diversification strategy with good risk management that siloed off the losers, you might be seeing someone who understands business.”

 From Scott Adams on the Dilbert blog

 I would tend to agree – most commentators have no idea how Trump is operating, only that he’s not doing what the traditional politicians normally do, and it bewilders them.

  Joe Doakes

The intellectual ossification of this nation’s self-appointed “elites” never ceases to astound.

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33 responses to “”

  1. Emery Incognito Avatar
    Emery Incognito

    Trump does not work the way previous Presidents have with the possible exception of President George W. Bush. Trump will sketch the world he wants to see and it will be up to the cabinet secretaries and other USG staff to get it done or get “you’re fired” . If, as usual, a circle cannot be squared it will be because of ” them”. You can drop any group you want into the “them” category but that’s usually what happens when ignorance meets reality. That and a fair amount of destruction.

  2. bosshoss429 Avatar
    bosshoss429

    Thanks for pointing out the 8 years of the Blamer in Chief’s regime, EI.

  3. kel Avatar
    kel

    EI what proof do you have of Trump’s ignorance?
    So far Mr trump has been winning against long odds and shown that he understands better than you and your fellow travelers the institutions he’s dealing with so effectively.
    Are you going to postulate another non-axiomatic Theory of Trump Chaos?

  4. Emery Incognito Avatar
    Emery Incognito

    You are litigating the wrong issue.
    1)Trump lied when he said the Intelligence Community leaked his dossier. You can’t leak something that everybody already has.
    2)Trump lied when he later pretended that he had not accused the Intelligence Community of being like the Nazis.
    This is the same liar who lied to the senior Republicans that he would have won the popular vote if it hadn’t been for the three million illegal votes cast against him.

    The fact that Trump is a habitual liar is most certainly true. How can a President who is a habitual liar ever gain the trust required to enable him to lead and govern?

  5. kel Avatar
    kel

    Emery sniveled: “How can a President who is a habitual liar ever gain the trust required to enable him to lead and govern?”

    why not ask Lyndon B Johnson or William J Clinton, or Barak H Obama?

    and to the point you pusillanimous twit, your argument was to the ignorance of Mr Trump not his putative prevarications.

  6. Joe Doakes Avatar
    Joe Doakes

    Should have put Emery in charge of the Superbowl goal posts – the Patriots would never have scored.

  7. nerdbert Avatar
    nerdbert

    Entirely Ignorant blathered:

    Trump does not work the way previous Presidents have with the possible exception of President George W. Bush. Trump will sketch the world he wants to see and it will be up to the cabinet secretaries and other USG staff to get it done or get “you’re fired”

    “Ronald Reagan was known for allowing his subordinates to complete their responsibilities in the manner they saw fit, without autocratically looking over their shoulders. Most of Reagan’s high-level leadership selections were experienced captains of industry from Wall Street, engineering and aerospace contractors. During his two terms as U.S. president, Reagan delegated unprecedented authority to his chief of staff, Cabinet secretaries and others — sometimes to his peril. However, Reagan earned a reputation as a strong but hands-off leader.”

  8. nerdbert Avatar
    nerdbert

    This is the same liar who lied to the senior Republicans that he would have won the popular vote if it hadn’t been for the three million illegal votes cast against him.

    Short answer: “In spite of substantial public controversy, very little reliable data exists concerning the frequency with which non-citizen immigrants participate in United States elections.” Nobody knows either way because examining the data is politically perilous given that the bulk of the illegal voting is in places where it helps the party in power. However, even conservative estimates of voter fraud given the data available on the frequency with which illegitimate votes are cast suggest that approximately one million of Hillary’s votes were from illegal votes.

    I’d like to see the issue studied and resolved, and our voting security brought up to European standards. How about you?

  9. Emery Incognito Avatar
    Emery Incognito

    On liars as leaders.

    The supreme quality for leadership is unquestionably integrity. Without it, no real success is possible, no matter whether it is on a section gang, a football field, in an army, or in an office. –Dwight D. Eisenhower

  10. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    On liars as leaders.

    Says a person who voted for sHrillary. Hypocritical ignoramus or shit for brains? You decide.

  11. Emery Incognito Avatar
    Emery Incognito

    I always enjoy that little add-on of yours when you realize you forgot some bile and personal abuse. It is a short life and one hardly has time to pour-out all one’s hatred, right?

    Now . . . put your feet up, have a nice cuppa and hum to yourself.

  12. Bill C Avatar
    Bill C

    This is the same liar who lied to the senior Republicans that he would have won the popular vote if it hadn’t been for the three million illegal votes cast against him.

    And you know this is a lie, exactly how? Because of the never ending drumbeat of the Democrats who constantly insist “THERE IS NO VOTER FRAUD!” and therefore never actually do anything to investigate whether or not their claim is true?

    Seems to me that if the Democrats really wanted to put whole vote/voter fraud issue to rest, they would do a complete and thorough investigation, so they can shove it in Republicans’ faces next time it is brought up. However, those of us who have a cynicism molded by reality and observation, know damn well the reason the left denies and refuses to investigate, is that they can’t win without voter fraud.

  13. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    I tend to take a different view of Trump’s bankruptcies; some bankruptcies are indeed unavoidable, but a couple of Trump’s involved subprime loans and junk bonds, and in my view those are sadly predictable. It is that degree of risk-taking that I pray he does not do in office.

  14. Emery Incognito Avatar
    Emery Incognito

    Bankruptcy is an interesting way to defraud your investors.

  15. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    Now . . . put your feet up

    And again, turd on the table and no follow up. I demand you answer whether you are a hypocritical ignoramus or a just have shit for brains. Or only you can demand answers? Yes? How hypocritical of you.

  16. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    Bankruptcy is an interesting way to defraud your investors.

    “defraud” implies intent. You got proof of intent? I am sure you will provide it as soon as you prove there was no massive voter fraud.

  17. nerdbert Avatar
    nerdbert

    Bankruptcy is an interesting way to defraud your investors.

    You clearly have no clue as to how business works. Let’s take the example of the tech industry and venture (vulture?) capital. 9 of 10 fail very with little to no recovery of investors’ money. Fewer than 1 in 100 break even. Fewer than 1 in 1000 return 2x the capital invested. What makes it worthwhile the immense returns you sometimes get. Is there fraud involved here? No, the investors all know the odds going in.

    It was much the same in some of Trump’s ventures. Some of his more exotic (notorious?) but very visible ventures had little chance of success, but a massive payoff if they did. Participating in such a venture, even as a contractor, implies a great deal of risk and if you got burned despite the warnings required by law all I can say is that you didn’t do due diligence and have nobody to blame but yourself. And I can say that as someone who’s gone the vulture capital route and seen the slime involved. I went in with my eyes open and no illusions so when the company went bankrupt I wasn’t shocked. Ahh, the stories I can tell about the venture capital business….

  18. Prince of Darkness_666 Avatar
    Prince of Darkness_666

    How can a President who is a habitual liar ever gain the trust required to enable him to lead and govern?

    be black and leftist.

  19. nerdbert Avatar
    nerdbert

    I tend to take a different view of Trump’s bankruptcies; some bankruptcies are indeed unavoidable, but a couple of Trump’s involved subprime loans and junk bonds, and in my view those are sadly predictable. It is that degree of risk-taking that I pray he does not do in office.

    One of the defining features of the American system is that bankruptcy isn’t a death knell, as it is in Britain. In fact, that risk-taking enthusiasm is one of the things that attracted many folks from Britain to the infant US, and it continues today.

    What the US has done is socialize risk taking in business ventures. You want to invest in Delta Airlines? How many times have they gone bankrupt now, especially if you count those of the companies they’ve acquired? Yet if you had bought into them in 2005 you’d be sitting pretty now.

    I have absolutely no problem with folks who are willing to take chances in business as long as those chances are transparently reported, as they are required by law. Now, the fact that the legal system is populated with lawyers who make their money by making straightforward communications and transactions impossible has meant that it’s very hard to actually get a real discussion of risks (e.g. “we might need to make another payout to some idiot who puts a scalding hot coffee between her legs”) is irrelevant to that point. I’ve never seen anyone argue that Trump didn’t disclose the risky nature of those ventures, only some folks complaining that suppliers got stiffed. It’s unfortunate that those suppliers were unwilling to evaluate what they were getting into, but that’s their fault for ignoring red flags.

  20. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    It is very obvious eTASS did not read the Adams piece. If he did, he would have kept his trap shut as not to call attention to his ignorance and stupidity. But then, he exhibited time and time again comprehension and understanding are not his strong suite, unlike non-sequiturs and his ability to lob turds into the punch bowl.

  21. Scott Hughes Avatar
    Scott Hughes

    our friend nerbert: “However, Reagan earned a reputation as a strong but hands-off leader.”

    I compare that to Carter who wasn’t hand-off but was known as a micro manager and I would argue not at all a strong leader.

    I suspect that Trump will be much in the Reagan mold in how he conducts himself.

    I’m certain Trump incurred financial losses of his own in the failure of a given enterprise. I’ve read that there are investors that went through bankruptcy with Trump that remarked how transparent and forthcoming he was during the legal process. In fact some even outwardly supported him later during the presidential campaign.

  22. Emery Incognito Avatar
    Emery Incognito

    “I’ve borrowed knowing that you can pay back with discounts,” Trump told CNBC.
    That’s an interesting way to describe using bankruptcy to defraud your creditors.

    I’m not sure most Trump supporters understand that his “great success as a businessman” largely stems from making promises he can’t keep and cheating people when he owes them money. Keep that in mind as he makes his promises, one of which is that he’ll pay us all back for our support of him later.

  23. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    “I’ve borrowed knowing that you can pay back with discounts,” Trump told CNBC.

    Was that in response to a specific bankruptcy case? What’s the context?

  24. Emery Incognito Avatar
    Emery Incognito

    Trump’s attitudes about the law have been out in the open for years. In his mind, our constitution and legal system are nothing more than weapons. It is to be used as a shield to avoid paying what you owe, to defraud and get away with it. Trump is proud of this conduct as is any gangster.

  25. Alt-Good Swiftee Avatar
    Alt-Good Swiftee

    How can a President who is a habitual liar ever gain the trust required to enable him to lead and govern?

    *blink* *blink*

    Bwaaahahahahahahahahahaaaaa! Hahahahahahaaha(coff coff)hahahahahaha
    hahahahahahaaaaa! HahahahaSays the Perpetually Plagiarizing Poltroon!!!hahahahahahahahaaaaa!

    Emery, you witless fuck, don’t ever change! Hahahahahahahaaaaa!

  26. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    In his mind, our constitution and legal system are nothing more than weapons.

    Not only a Brexit gloom and doom forecaster nonpareil, but now a mind reader. You are indeed a witless fuck in every context.

  27. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    EI, even if you’re 100% correct, how exactly does Trump differ from Bill Clinton and Barack Obama? Honestly….

  28. Emery Incognito Avatar
    Emery Incognito

    On paper, I like many of his cabinet appointees and Gorsuch was a solid pick as well.

  29. nerdbert Avatar
    nerdbert

    “I’ve borrowed knowing that you can pay back with discounts,” Trump told CNBC.

    Again, the whole point flies over Emery’s befuddled head.

    Yes, he can pay back with a discount if the venture has to go bankrupt. At no point does he say that he intends to pay back with a discount, only that he can pay back with a discount.

    You remember my point about venture capital above? About socializing risk? This is a great example of it. He’s operating as a startup on that project. He’s taking a risk and might not succeed. No shame in that, no shame in failing. He was able to convince investors to take a flier on his business knowing that he was taking a risk, but that he wasn’t risking his entire fortune on it. The investors knew the risk (you ever see the forms you have to fill out for investing in a risky venture?), and were willing to take it. This is called voluntary association. They weren’t forced by the government to invest in Solyndra, for example, or for subprime inner city mortgages at ridiculously high risk.

  30. Joe Doakes Avatar
    Joe Doakes

    Emery, you are the ne plus Ultra. You are the creme-de-la-creme. You are the Acme. No one could be more Oblivious than you.

    Adams says that people who criticize Trump’s bankruptcies do not understand how bankruptcy is a part of business, and you reinforce his point Time After Time, comment after comment.

    Fraud is not dischargeable in bankruptcy. if Trump were engaging in fraud, filing for bankruptcy would not help him. If you knew the first thing about it, you would realize how ignorant your comments reveal you to be. But because you know nothing about it yet repeat your criticism endlessly, you prove Adams point better than he or I could possibly hope to prove it. Thank you.

  31. Emery Incognito Avatar
    Emery Incognito

    I’ve seen business men and I’ve seen con men and Donald Trump is no business man.
    — Michael Bloomberg

  32. nerdbert Avatar
    nerdbert

    First off, Emery, Bloomberg isn’t exactly a sterling example of a business titan himself. Slimy scumbag with monopolistic behaviors are the least of the criticisms he deserves.

    And secondly, I don’t disagree with Bloomberg on his assessment of Trump. Trump’s business dealings have never been of the most sterling sort, but it’s not like the terms have been hidden, either. You know what you’re getting when you get into bed with Trump, and if you’re greedy enough to ignore the warning flags you get what you deserve.

    Still, if you get into the right project with the right protections you can make a lot of money. But if you aren’t careful and aware of business reality you could be ruined. Nothing is new about his behavior, and honestly, his behavior is less cutthroat than Microsoft’s under Gates or Intel’s after Grove. It’s just that you can see Trump’s behavior more openly than you could see Gates’ because of their relative dominance in their markets.

  33. ewaters925 Avatar
    ewaters925

    I admire the persistence with which Emery switches argument and goalpost location and is willing to be embarrassed time and again as he does so ……

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