Shot in the Dark

In Play?

It’s something Republicans have whispered hopefully to each other ever since I started watching Minnesota elections, 28 years ago; could Minnesota flip?

“Pshaw”, goes the conventional wisdom.

“Not so fast, and who the hell actually says ‘pshaw’”, say some polls:

Populism is at the heart of Mr. Trump’s economic and anti-establishment message. It’s also the significant enthusiasm gap between Mr. Trump’s very excited supporters and Mrs. Clinton’s very depressed voters that could result in a big upset, despite what the polls show ahead of the election. The state, which consistently boasts higher voter turnout than the national average, is also known for its more-than-average politically active citizenry and the strength of political movements could be exacerbated by it.

Now, not including the expanded Minnesota subsample taken from the PPD U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll, a Gravis Marketing Poll released on Monday finds the race tied at 42% and another recent SurveyUSA Poll finds a six-point lead for Mrs. Clinton.

It wouldn’t be a story about Minnesota politics without Larry Jacobs:

“Minnesota is in play,” Larry Jacobs of the University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute, told Patch. “Trump is only six or seven points behind and has not campaigned actively in Minnesota, whereas Democrats are counting on Minnesota and have actually put some money in. So, I think these are surprising results.”…Seven percent (7%) remain undecided, slightly higher than the national average.

For myself?  I think Clinton will win, for one reason and one only:  if Democrat internal polling showed Clinton losing Minnesota, a state with about 4 million voting age adults (of whom about 2/3 actually vote in presidential elections) going to Trump by a thoroughly hypothetical million vote margin, 1.17 million to 700,000, the Metro DFL machine would turn out four million votes for Hillary in Minneapolis,  Saint Paul and Duluth, and the Secretary of State would certify it, and the Star-Tribune would call anyone who called BS a “racist” and shut them up.

But it’s an interesting theory.

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Mitch Berg

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Comments

9 responses to “In Play?”

  1. The Big Stink Avatar
    The Big Stink

    Which comes first: A Viking’s Super Bowl victory?

    Of, the state goes Republican?

    Or, hell freezes over?

  2. escapefromstl Avatar
    escapefromstl

    Anyone who calls BS will be called a “sexist” this go-around. And won’t it be refreshing when we don’t agree with the policies of President Hillary Clinton to be called a sexist after the last 8 years of being called a racist?

  3. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    I can see the lower middle class and poor outstate going for Trump–I’ve been living outside the metro for a while, and quite frankly a lot of them are just plain hurting, and it’s because of the reasons Trump mentions.

  4. mjb003 Avatar
    mjb003

    Many areas of the country that had strong primary support for Trump also had strong support for Bernie. But, I doubt that the Democrats even understand this or understand the reason for it. I don’t think the Bernie supporters were the people with the liberala arts degrees that refuse to work minimum wage jobs while living in their parents’ basements, as Hillary suggests. In those regions of the country, many of them are the people the liberal elite constantly bully- the people they call backwards, uneducated, hicks, etc. And liberals aren’t getting them.

    Not to say that Trump undestands the population or even his own supporters any better. But, he has marketing savvy and acting experience to be able to portray a little more empathy towards these working class and minimum wage earning voters.

    Given this, and the fact that Trump, like Bernie, has been able to get these people out to polling places, people who don’t always vote I think Trump has a high chance of becoming President.

  5. mjb003 Avatar
    mjb003

    I meant to add in above comment, that given all this, Trump also has a big chance in winning Minnesota, not just the Presidency.

  6. Sauk Fantoche Avatar
    Sauk Fantoche

    if Trump does carry MN we’ll have to listen to 4 years of DG keening on about the “Rampant Voter Fraud” that allowed that to happen.

  7. justplainangry Avatar
    justplainangry

    For any state that voted for Gov Janos, anything is possible. Not probable, but possible.

  8. Bill C Avatar
    Bill C

    Don’t worry. The DFL will never let this happen. Expect to see trunk-fulls of ballots magically appear, other ballots magically disappear, precincts have much higher vote counts than registered voters, and Republican vote totals approaching under 1% from the core cities. And if need be, sympathetic judges will be called in to oversee the inevitable recounts and make sure there is as much variance in counting methods between the different precincts as is needed, in order to cement a confident victory for Killary.

    That is, if the election happens in the first place.

  9. Loren Avatar
    Loren

    There would be semi-trucks of “missing” ballots found. Nevermind if some precincts report 300% turnout.

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