Shot in the Dark

To Heirloom Cars

Bob Collins at MPR notes that with falling gas prices, the mathematics of hybrid cars works out a lot more slowly:

According to the Associated Press, if energy prices don’t move much — and, yes, we know they will — then the payback period now is longer than the life expectancy of the car.

AP took the two popular hybrids — the Toyota Prius and the Nissan Leaf — and compared the payback period from July to now.

Toyota Prius

Approximate price premium: $4,300

Annual fuel savings based on July gas price: $534

Payback years: 8.1

Annual fuel savings based on current gas price: $313

Payback years: 13.7

Nissan Leaf

Approximate price premium, including electric vehicle tax credit: $7,330

Annual gasoline savings based on July gas price: $796

Payback years: 9.2

Annual gasoline savings based on current gas price: $281

Payback years: 25.8

Hm – maybe that’s why the MPR crowd has been throwing spitballs at the Bakken oilfields all these years…

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11 responses to “To Heirloom Cars”

  1. kel Avatar
    kel

    “maybe that’s why the MPR crowd…’

    they write their copy for an innumerate bunch (art history, x-studies, etc) but they’re not all as challenged as their subscribers. They’ve always known that “green” doesn’t scale, and will likely never become truly competitive. They just resent the hell out of the fact that $2/gal gas makes a fool out of them.

    Expect a big push on MPR in early Feb for a substantial indexed gas tax at the legislature.

  2. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    This is a bit too optimistic, still. The reason is that the price premium for like vehicles–say Prius wagon vs. the Corolla–is closer to $7000 than $4000. Plus, you need to add in a lost interest cost. Net cost of the Prius; a cool thousand dollars a year.

    Also, when you compare like vehicles, you get the Prius wagon at about 40mpg vs. the Corolla at about 30mpg, you only save about 100 gallons per year over 12000 miles of driving–less if it’s mostly highway driving, which is typical.

    Net is that to break even with a Prius, gas would have to be at about $10/gallon. It’s a fashion statement that does quite a bit of pollution, not a “green” car.

  3. Powhatan Mingo Avatar
    Powhatan Mingo

    If owning hybrids or electric cars made economic sense, they wouldn’t have to bribe people to buy them.

  4. nerdbert Avatar
    nerdbert

    Hm – maybe that’s why the MPR crowd has been throwing spitballs at the Bakken oilfields all these years…

    And why you hear all the talk about new gas taxes now.

    I don’t object all that much to new gas taxes that go to pay for roads. I DO object to new gas taxes that pay for choo-choo trains.

  5. bosshoss429 Avatar
    bosshoss429

    One other factor; when these things go off manufacturer’s factory warranty, they cost at least 10% more to repair than their non-hybrid counterparts.

  6. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    Boss, maybe worse than that. Those batteries ain’t cheap, and batteries do have a finite life.

  7. Bill C Avatar
    Bill C

    According to this article, a new battery pack is about $4000, and the guy negotiated that down to $3300 at his local dealer. There is a place in Houston that sells and installs reconditioned batteries for $800 with a 1 year warranty and an average life expectancy of 50-70K miles..

    Nice if you live in Houston. And using his math, that’s not that bad of a price and you would probably come out ahead vs repairs and gas on a larger non-hybrid vehicle. Not sure how that would compare to something like a Corolla or Civic…or a VW diesel that gets 50+MPG

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/tonybradley/2014/04/09/replacing-a-dead-prius-hybrid-battery-doesnt-have-to-cost-thousands-of-dollars/

  8. nerdbert Avatar
    nerdbert

    Bill, given the maintenance costs on a VW diesel I’d bet on the hybrid winning. Sure, diesels are generally pretty rugged, but VW in general isn’t all that reliable, and the parts and labor on repairs are in the same league as Porsche.

  9. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    One big issue with the diesel is the cost of fuel–even if one gets that 49mpg highway that friends of mine have gotten, $3/gallon diesel vs. $2/gallon gasoline eats into your pocketbook pretty quickly.

    But regarding reliability, I’ve not heard much bad about TDI. Small VW gas engines, yes, but not the diesels.

  10. nate Avatar
    nate

    Why is diesel so high compared to gas? They’re both made out of oil. If the price of crude – the raw material – went down for gasoline, then it also went down for diesel, right? I don’t get it.

  11. bikebubba Avatar
    bikebubba

    I’ve wondered that as well. Looked it up, and the first six cents per gallon difference are federal taxes, the next ten cents per gallon or so is the ultra low sulfur requirement, and the rest is apparently a combination of demand and refineries designed for gasoline.

    Ironically, the work to generate gasoline is more, as diesel is “cracked” into gasoline to optimize the process for more gasoline. But apparently as long as you’re doing that, you can’t go back to a higher diesel mix without investment.

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