Harvard poll shows that – despite all the fuzzy assurances of magical-thinkers with agendas, especially in “libertarian” circles – Millennials who are “definitely votint” are picking the GOP over the Dems this cycle:
A new and massive poll of 2,029 18-29-year-olds from Harvard’s Institute of Politics just released found that of those who say they will “definitely be voting,” 51 percent want the GOP in charge, 47 percent favoring Democratic control.
Because the numbers are close, however, Harvard said the kid vote is “up for grabs.”
Still, it is a huge shift from the last IOP midterm poll. In 2010, younger voters kept to their historic trend with 55 percent favoring Democrats, 43 percent Republicans. That is an eight-point change, very good news for the Republicans who had feared that the Obama generation would show up at the polls and in knee-jerk fashion simply pull the Democratic levers.
On the one hand, it’s young voters. They are the most driven by self-interest; they almost always vote Democrat; polls that show Millennials tend to have more libertarian beliefs also show they tend to have more socialistic beliefs. In other words, they’re adolescents and post-adolescents who, often as not, haven’t the foggiest idea what they really think.
But if the Harvard trend follows through next Tuesday, it’ll be the second time in recent memory, after 1980-84, that young voters have predominantly voted Republican.
The real challenge? If there is a GOP wave on Tuesday, it’ll be making sure that GOP majority stays conservative. Keeping the Karl Rove faction out of the way. Focusing on why people actually vote conservative (as opposed to Republican).
As all of that “Jeb Bush 2016” talk shows us, there’s a big part of the GOP that’s stuck on stupid.
As the Tea Party shows us, there’s a big part that’s not.
Who will win?
I’ve picked my side.