Shot in the Dark

Cry Wolf

Yesterday, amid my Fearless Predictions about the aftermath of this session at the Legislature, I called it:

 Threats from cities to lay off cops and firemen (leaving city garbage collectors, administrators, civil rights commissioners, convention planners, community planning organizers, planning/policy wonks and layer upon layer of other bureaucrats unmentioned and untouched, because people don’t get scared into writing their legislatores to demand tax hikes to protect any of those jobs).

In other words, the DFL’s line will be pass our budget or life as we know it will cease to exist!
This morning at MNPublius, Jeff Rosenberg puts my prediction in the money:

Tim Pawlenty said there would be no special session and no government shutdown. But what he meant was that there would be no official shutdown. Under his slice-and-dice plan, our government will slowly stop functioning. Hospitals will shut down or begin refusing service. Schools will go without billions of dollars are funds are “shifted” away from them. Cities and counties will raise property taxes and curtail most services.

(“Cities and counties will raise property taxes and curtail most services?”  In related news, Best Buy will raise prices but refuse to let you walk out the door with your product?  WTH?)

Leaving aside the reality that at complete government shutdown that led to a re-funding of government on a purely skeleton level that kept only essential services [*] functioning would probably be a very, very good thing for Minnesota, especially if it became permanent, let’s be honest here; the scenario is just not true.  Government has plenty of money – way too much, in fact.  They just didn’t get the increases they wanted, and they didn’t get to fund more increases by raising taxes.

It’s time to call the Dems on their fearmongering.  At the polls, of course.
[*] Note to Metro city governments: most of us define “essential services” as police, fire departments and courts. As opposed to, say, planning offices and convention bureaux and civil rights offices.  Just saying.

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Mitch Berg

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15 responses to “Cry Wolf”

  1. Mr. Shirt Avatar
    Mr. Shirt

    I heard some Dem on the radio this morning saying that this would cut health care to people making less than $80,000 per year. OH the HORROR!

  2. Mitch Berg Avatar
    Mitch Berg

    Yeah.

    By the way, to answer my question from a few days back – where I asked Bill Haverberg the percentage of Minnesotans that are uninsured?

    It’s 8%. The lowest percentage in the nation.

  3. Chuck Avatar
    Chuck

    I hope St. Paul has enough money to pay the Human Rights (sic) director. Need to keep an eye our for Dago sandwiches and stuffed bunnies.

  4. thorleywinston Avatar
    thorleywinston

    I think we’re seeing the same tactics that school districts use when they want to pressure voters into proving an excess levy referendum. They make an agreement with the unions for salaries and benefits that they can’t pay at their current levels of funding.

    They try to pass a tax increase to pay for the contact. If/when it fails, the district makes cuts for things like busing where they know that voters will feel the most pain and tell them “we’re sorry but we can’t continue to operate without a tax increase” and then when/if the excess levy referendum is passed, the majority of the new funding (87% IIRC) goes for salaries and benefits.

    And the members of the school board who approved the contract and pushed for the levy referendum run for reelection in our “nonpartisan” elections with “Education endorsed” on their literature and yard signs.

    Rinse and repeat, election cycle after election cycle.

  5. J. Ewing Avatar
    J. Ewing

    The problem is that the tactic only works as long as people believe that every single nickel the government spend goes for “essential services.” Since the MN State budget has increased an average of 9% every year (18% per biennium) every year since 1960 and including last year, this year and proposed for 2010, people are starting to catch on. The gravy train is about to run off the rails.

  6. juanito Avatar
    juanito

    Leaving aside the reality that at complete government shutdown that led to a re-funding of government on a purely skeleton level that kept only essential services [*] functioning would probably be a very, very good thing for Minnesota, especially if it became permanent,

    uhmmmmm, can we barrow that for California?

  7. juanito Avatar
    juanito

    Hey – my flippin’ Firefox spell checker corrected “borrrow” to “barrow” – wha?

    But, you take my point, I’m sure. We need a big heap of fixing in California!

  8. jpmn Avatar
    jpmn

    DFL controlled Cities and Counties probably will raise taxes and cut essential services.

    They will lay off a few cops so they can keep the guy who does tours at the basket weaving exhibit after all it’s art and we have to spend that .375 cent sales tax increase that “we” the voters approved.

  9. swiftee Avatar
    swiftee

    Can we talk?

    Seriously; the Governor has done his job, now it’s up to US to do ours. Don’t kid yourselves, the stinking Democrat mayors and city councilgerbils are not going to stop at talking about shredding critical city services; they’re going to do everything in they can to make their disaster scenario a reality.

    The future of their control is in the balance.

    If you do not show up at the budget meetings, town hall chats & etc., and tell them, in your most colorful regional dialect, that you’ll have their asses if they do not cut every single moonbat project they are currently funding before they even think about pitching critical services (cops, fire, streets, courts) over the side, you will be doing their work for them.

    Step away from the keyboard, get up off your dead asses and get to work!

    That is all.

  10. K-Rod Avatar
    K-Rod

    I like to talk with my mayor one on one.

  11. nate Avatar
    nate

    In the past, cities taxed their own citizens. That put a limit on how much foolishness the city could buy. But a few years back, Minnesota shifted the cost of local city services. Instead of being based solely on local property taxes, we now collect income tax statewide and parcel out that money to help cities keep down property taxes. It’s called Local Government Aid (LGA).

    This plan made sense for South Haven (pop. 200) which can’t afford much more than a water tower and street sweeper. But free money? Hell, yeah – St. Paul jumped into that plan with both feet. So now St. Paul depends not on what we locals can afford, but on how much South Haven sends us in LGA. Governor Pawlenty threatens to cut LGA to balance the state budget; the Mayor of St. Paul says that will force cuts in police, fire, libraries, parks and road maintenance. But why cut those items? Why cut essentials and keep frills?

    Maybe the reason big cities lay off cops and keep social workers is they don’t have any idea what the public thinks is essential versus luxury. We should help them by making a list. Here’s mine:

    “Essential” includes police and fire fighters. A few prosecutors; some public works guys to fill potholes and cut grass; one payroll clerk and that’s about it.

    Clean, safe drinking water is essential, but St. Paul’s water comes from the Regional Water Board which serves St. Paul and several suburbs. It runs on fees from your water bill, not LGA. Water won’t be affected by this temporary budget problem. Proper disposal of sewage is essential to public health. But St. Paul’s sewer system operates on fees on the water bill – again, outside the year-to-year budget and not dependent on LGA.

    Street maintenance, water mains, sewers and storm sewer repairs, expansions and improvements are paid for by special assessments levied against benefitted property owners, not LGA.

    You might think that snow plowing would be an essential city service in Northern city, and you’d be partly right. The City does plow major streets frequently. And it sometimes plows ordinary streets, too (not often – this past winter they plowed my street three times by actual count). They never plow alleys (residents hire private contractors). Frankly, considering the cost and quality, I’d gladly hire my alley guy to plow the street, too, and drop the City. But okay, add snow plowing to the “essential” list.

    “Not essential” would cover everything else, such as refrigerated outdoor hockey rinks; STAR program grants to “cultural” performance artists; vacant building enforcement; neighborhood councils; economic development including HRA and the Port Authority; most of the licensing and inspection division; pretty much all the staff for the Mayor and Council; all three City-owned golf courses; all parks-and-recreation programs and park improvements; meter maids; convention bureau; the Train on University Avenue; Youth Job Corps; and every single committee, board and commission and all their staff from the Advisory Committee on Aging through the Fair Carousel Board to the Truth in Housing Board of Evaluators.

    I’m not saying “non-essential” items are bad or worthless, only that we can’t afford them right now. If we dump them now, who knows – we might find we don’t need them so badly after all. Making tough choices. That’s what leadership looks like. We could use some around here.

  12. Bill C Avatar
    Bill C

    Wow. Nate for mayor!

  13. Dog Gone Avatar
    Dog Gone

    Hooray NATE! Well said! Not Nate for mayor; Nate for governor!!!!!!!!!!!

  14. Mitch Berg Avatar
    Mitch Berg

    Nate – please go have a word with Eva Ng.

    Stat.

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