#1: Because the Minnesota Poll says Franken’s up by four.
A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows DFLer Al Franken clinging to a slim lead over Republican Sen. Norm Coleman among likely voters, 42 percent to 38 percent. That’s within the poll’s 4.1 percentage point margin of sampling error.
The Minnesota Poll seems to spot DFLers four to eight points, over the last several elections (with 2006 being a partial exception).
I think Coleman’s going to win this by 3-4 points. The MNPoll is evidence of this.
Oh, yeah – further proof of the triviality of the MNPoll:
Independence Party candidate Barkley, who held steady at 18 percent in the two previous Minnesota Polls, slipped three points to 15 percent.
The Minnesota Poll always seems to put Ventura “Independence” Party candidates about double where they end up.
Fearless prediction: the Ventura “Independence” Party’s days as a “Major Party” in Minnesota will end after the 2010 election.
IP will last until 2012. They can usually get 5% in a gubernatorial election, and I think they’ll get it in 2010. However, in 2012, up against a popular Senator, I don’t think they’ll be able to break 5 percent.
Did any newspaper in the state endorse Franken? Even liberal newspapers (Duluth, Mpls), or rational papers in Democrat areas (Mesabi Daily News) endorsed Norm. Not that endorsements influence anyone, but it shows that even liberal media types are saying, “Okay, if you have to vote for one Republican this year, vote for Coleman”.
The fact that Franken is polling even close to Coleman tells us that something is wrong with our state’s vaunted educational system.
Mitch –
The Star Tribune changed pollsters after the 2006 election, so their polls from past cycles are not really instructive. Also, the Strib got the Klobuchar-Kennedy race dead on in 2006.
But anyway, the new pollster (Princeton Research) doesn’t have much of a track record, so we really have no clue how they are going to do.
Love your work.
Jeff I think you are incorrect on both of your major points.
1) We will be stuck with the IP (DFL Lite) party for quite awhile.
2) AK is not a popular Senator. After voting 100% with Obama or being part of the do nothing Senate under McCain, she will be lucky to pull 40% of the vote. 40% might win but the IP will need someone other than Barkley.
JP, don’t pick on A-Klo. she is just as an effective representative as Betty McCallum.
(for those of you who went to MacCalister, that is a cut on both of them)