Polls taken 56 weeks before the election have a very dodgy record predicting real elections.
But they do make for good entertainment.
And this WaPo-ABC Poll is certainly good entertainment:
Overall, 55 percent of Americans expect a Republican victory next year. Fewer, 37 percent, predict that President Obama will win reelection. A majority of independents sense that the GOP nominee will prevail, but there is a gaping difference between party loyalists.
Fully 83 percent of Republicans say the GOP nominee — whoever he or she may be — is likely to claim the presidency next year. Among Democrats, far fewer, 58 percent, say they think Obama will win a second term. A third of Democrats expect a GOP win; just 13 percent of Republicans sense a repeat for Obama.
All the usual caveats apply.
Tangential question: I wonder if Nate Silver will use this poll to handicap the next election? Or maybe he’s learned his lesson?