Shot in the Dark

MPR Poll: Even Up

The latest MPR/Humphrey Institute poll is showing a tossup

Tom Emmer and Democrat Mark Dayton are running are running even in the 2010 race for governor according to a new MPR News-Humphrey Institute Poll…

…Among likely voters, Mark Dayton and Tom Emmer are even at 34 percent support each. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner received 13 percent support.

It’s volatile, of course…:

A fifth of likely voters are undecided. Defections of both Democrats and Republicans from their party’s candidates and splits among key voting groups also contribute to the tight race…One-third of partisans are defecting from the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor, draining usually reliable bases of support for each.

Some DFLers are crying foul over the crosstabs…:

Republican: 46%

Democrat: 41%

Independent: 13%

You’ll have to excuse me if I don’t buy that. The oversampling of Republicans is yet another reason to suspect that this poll overstates the extent to which the race has actually narrowed.

…and the technology…:

Landline? Are you kidding me? I wonder how many younger voters were missed. Not having a landline, I could never have been contacted for this poll.

Although the pollsters tried to pre-empt the technical issue…

The survey data has also been weighted to accomodate for factors such as the number of telephone lines, cell phone usage, gender, age, race and ethnicity to approximate the demographic characteristics of the state’s population according to the Census.

…while a GOP activist notes that the poll might reflect the passion gap between Republicans and Democrats fairly accurately.

More coming up shortly.

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Mitch Berg

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3 responses to “MPR Poll: Even Up”

  1. gill0137 Avatar
    gill0137

    The Good News – Emmer needed a poll like this from an ostensibly liberal media source to dissipate the negative feelings of the base regarding his recent flaps, poor fundraising, and poor campaign team (recently shaken up for the better).

    The Bad News – As much as I’d like to believe 46% of MN are Republicans, I know its not true. Most Partisan ID’s come in with the DFL in the high 30’s, the GOP in the Mid-30’s, and the Indy’s in the low 30’s. Maybe this poll really pushed those Indy’s one way or another – but that seems weird since they didn’t push people on choosing a candidate (with almost 20% undecided).

    The truth – Emmer is probably 6 points down with no where to go but up – and I’ll take the under on amount of time it takes MPR to release a new poll that shows Emmer down about that much with the story being “Emmer losing ground to Dayton…”

  2. Mitch Berg Avatar
    Mitch Berg

    Gill,

    I am cynical enough to have thought the same thing. I presume all polling run by either Twin Cities media (like the unforgiveable Strib poll) or academics (the HHH Inst.) servethe DFL first, truth third.

    So yes, I wouldn’t rule out your scenario at all. I’ll also be watching those crosstabs closely.

    And I would bet an absolute lock on an upcoming MNPoll showing Dayton up 10 in a poll that oversamples Tics by 5%.

  3. nerdbert Avatar
    nerdbert

    Landline? I know that technology, I even designed for it, but it still exists?! I’d better check to make sure we have a hitching post at work still.

    Seriously, between VoIP and Google Voice I make sure that NOBODY can robocall me, and I’m happy with that. In fact, the last robocall I got was from the Obama campaign trying to get me to vote for him in Vermont’s primary.

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